海角大神

Wobbly in the polls, what鈥檚 Jeb Bush鈥檚 comeback plan?

While a bunch of other Republicans have jumped into the 2016 presidential race, Jeb Bush is biding his time, raising a ton of money, working to appeal to GOP constituencies, and navigating nervousness about a Bush 'dynasty.'

In the 2016 presidential race, former Florida governor Jeb Bush is generally seen as the favorite of establishment Republicans 鈥� which is not necessarily a good thing if you want to make it through the GOP鈥檚 primary and caucus season successfully.

There, more outspoken hopefuls hammer issues like immigration, foreign terrorism, the economy, and same-sex marriage with a heavier, tea partyish hammer. At the South Carolina Freedom Summit over the weekend, the rest of the pack 鈥� just about everybody but Mr. Bush 鈥� talked tough on defense and foreign affairs.

Bush, meanwhile, was in Lynchburg, Va., as the commencement speaker at Liberty University, which was founded by the late Southern Baptist pastor and televangelist Jerry Falwell 鈥� probably a smart move since evangelical Protestants and other 海角大神 conservatives (Bush is a converted Roman Catholic) are a key segment of the Republican base. Bush slammed liberals and the Obama administration for being 鈥渟mall-minded and intolerant鈥� when it comes to religious beliefs and practices.

At this point in the presidential contest, Bush is seeing mixed results in the polls.

He鈥檚 leading (with 15.5 percent) in the , just ahead of Marco Rubio (14.3 percent) and Scott Walker (12.3 percent), the rest trailing off into oblivion.

But last week鈥檚 focused on the Iowa Republican Caucus had Bush way back.

鈥淭he first few months of the Iowa Republican caucus race show Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker as the early leader. US Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, on the strength of an impressive candidacy roll out, has moved from the bottom of the pack into a tie for second,鈥� said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll. 鈥淔ormer Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who has yet to formalize his candidacy while he amasses what most expect to be a massive fund-raising lead, runs seventh with just 5 percent of the vote.鈥�

A new Bloomberg poll has Bush sliding back in another key early state 鈥� New Hampshire.

鈥淩ubio, who announced his candidacy April 13, more than doubled his level of [New Hampshire] primary聽support since the poll's last sample, in February,鈥� 鈥淏ush, who isn't expected to formally announce until June, dropped five percentage points, his lowest level since the poll started tracking the state's voters聽in November.鈥�

McCormick notes another problem: 鈥淏ush is relatively weak among聽independents. While drawing support from 15 percent of Republicans, he has the backing of just 6 percent of independents. That's a potential problem for Bush, especially if he runs poorly in the Iowa caucuses set for聽the聽week before New Hampshire's primary.鈥�

One New Hampshire Republican voter raised another issue with Bush 鈥� his family鈥檚 political dynasty.

鈥淚'd be happier if his last name wasn't Bush,鈥� Fred McGarry told Bloomberg. 鈥淎ll the others are too far to the right for me and my guess is that some of them will play well in the strongly red states, but not get elected nationwide.鈥�

Although he鈥檚 doing better in some polls (and is ahead by a bit in that Real Clear Politics polling average), 鈥淏ush is hardly out of the woods聽yet,鈥� at the Washington Post.

鈥淣egative views of him still far outpace positive ones (including 36-23 in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll)聽and have done so in basically every poll we've seen,鈥� notes Blake. 鈥淗e'll need to turn that around.鈥�

As others jump into the race in rapid succession, Bush is biding his time, raising a ton of money, and carefully navigating the possible Bush41-Bush43-Bush45 historical White House arc.

In a pre-taped Fox News interview Sunday, he acknowledged the intelligence failings that led his brother George W. Bush to order the US invasion of Iraq 12 years ago, but quickly added that former senator Hillary Rodham Clinton had voted to approve the invasion.

Meanwhile, as the political clock ticks toward those first presidential primaries and caucuses just a few months off, some Republican political pros are getting antsy.

鈥淭he early polls, which show Jeb getting clobbered in Iowa, barely ahead if at all in New Hampshire, and trading a narrow lead with his fellow Floridian Marco Rubio nationally, are predicting a ferociously competitive campaign,鈥� at Politico.com.

鈥淎 month ago the whole story was that Hillary was rusty, that she hadn鈥檛 been out there doing anything,鈥� one veteran GOP operative who worked on one of George W. Bush鈥檚 campaigns told Thrush. 鈥淲ell, she鈥檚 been out there taking hits for a month. Jeb hasn鈥檛. It鈥檚 time to get this thing going.鈥�