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Marco Rubio vs. Rand Paul: Who's winning GOP Cuba policy smackdown?

Republican Sens. Marco Rubio and Rand Paul have been sparring over President Obama's decision to reopen relations with communist Cuba.

It鈥檚 the intramural D.C. squabble that blew up as quickly as an ocean rain squall: the Marco Rubio vs. Rand Paul Cuba Smackdown of 2014.

Why are two Republican senators, both probable presidential contenders, fighting over President Obama鈥檚 decision to reopen relations with communist Cuba? Like lots of things in official Washington, it鈥檚 complicated. There are both personal and political reasons for the fight.

One thing is sure: It鈥檚 bitter.

Kentucky Senator Paul doesn鈥檛 know what he鈥檚 talking about, says Senator Rubio.

Rubio is 鈥渁n isolationist who wants to retreat to our borders and perhaps build a moat,鈥� charges Paul.

Let鈥檚 start with Rubio鈥檚 side of things. The Florida lawmaker and son of Cuban immigrants has been the face of GOP opposition to Mr. Obama鈥檚 surprise Cuba move. He鈥檚 arguing that the United States will receive nothing for loosening travel restrictions and establishing other means of contact with Havana. The Castro regime will remain in place, its grip on power unaffected.

It鈥檚 an issue that Rubio obviously cares deeply about. It鈥檚 also historically very important to his state, where conservative Cuban-Americans have long been a powerful political bloc.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 care if the polls show that 99 percent of people believe we should normalize relations in Cuba. I鈥檇 still believe that before we can normalize relations in Cuba, democracy has to come first, or at least significant steps towards democracy,鈥� Rubio said Wednesday.

Paul, for his part, is trying to carve out a niche as a Republican presidential contender with a different kind of foreign policy position. If there鈥檚 a word that sums it up, it鈥檚 鈥渘on-interventionist.鈥� He鈥檚 been skeptical of the virtue of deploying US power overseas in the past.

So he came out 鈥� mildly 鈥� in favor of the president鈥檚 actions. He said in a radio interview earlier this week that Obama鈥檚 Cuba opening was 鈥減robably a good idea and that the 60-year-old US embargo on trading with Cuba hasn鈥檛 been effective.

鈥淚f the goal is regime change it sure doesn鈥檛 seem to be working,鈥� Paul said.

This is where the fight began. Challenged from within his own party, Florida鈥檚 Rubio said Kentucky鈥檚 Paul 鈥渉as no idea what he鈥檚 talking about.鈥�

Paul bided his time then unleashed a stream of taunting tweets on Friday.

鈥淗ey @marcorubio if the embargo doesn鈥檛 hurt Cuba why do you want to keep it?鈥� he began.

鈥淪enator @marcorubio is acting like an isolationist who wants to retreat to our borders and perhaps build a moat. I reject this isolationism,鈥� he continued.

And so on. He ended by asking Rubio why the US shouldn鈥檛 trade with Cuba, if it traded with China and Vietnam.

For Paul, what鈥檚 the advantage of pushing this quarrel? He gets to try to redefine his own image, while throwing mud on a possible rival.

He鈥檚 the one sometimes called an 鈥渋solationist.鈥� Now he gets to use that label on somebody else while coming out in favor of economic engagement. How will that play in GOP primaries? That鈥檚 a huge and very interesting question that won鈥檛 be answered until Paul鈥檚 presidential campaign, if he tries one, gets underway.

Rubio鈥檚 tried to shut his rival down by belittling him. National security hawks have tried that in regards to Paul鈥檚 opposition to drones and National Security Agency surveillance. That hasn鈥檛 worked as well as they鈥檇 like.

Rubio, meanwhile, is defending an embargo that鈥檚 broadly seen as ineffective by the American people, if polls are any guide. In recent years, even the Florida Cuban-American community has become more supporting of lifting the embargo as the oldest refugees pass away and are replaced by younger escapees with family still on the island.

That doesn鈥檛 mean Rubio should cave, Bloomberg View political scientist Jonathan Bernstein. It鈥檚 a subject the Floridian obviously cares about. Political polarization may work in his favor: Many Republicans may reflexively oppose Obama鈥檚 move even if they think the embargo鈥檚 time is past, just because it鈥檚 Obama鈥檚 idea.

That could help Rubio in the early winnowing process leading towards GOP primaries. If he wins the nomination, the issue might be forgotten by the time November 2016 rolls around.

鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 matter whether Obama鈥檚 policy is popular. It doesn鈥檛 even matter whether it鈥檚 successful. Strong opposition is almost certainly the right electoral play for Rubio,鈥� writes Bernstein.