President Obama's convention 'bounce': Is it already starting to fade?
Polls suggested that President Obama got a bigger surge in support after his convention than did Mitt Romney. But some new polls show that the bounce is coming back to earth.
President Obama takes the stage during a campaign event at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa, last Friday.
Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP
Is President Obama鈥檚 post-convention bounce upward in the polls beginning to come down? We won鈥檛 know the definitive answer to that question for a few days yet, when more polls have published their latest results. But there鈥檚 at least one data point that shows Obama鈥檚 numbers returning to earth.
Rasmussen Reports鈥� tracking poll for Sept. 11 shows Mr. Obama leading Mitt Romney by 3 percentage points, 48 to 45. That鈥檚 down from a 5 percentage point lead on Sept. 10.
鈥淭oday鈥檚 data suggests that the president鈥檚 convention bounce has started to fade,鈥� concludes Rasmussen in .
Again, this is just one survey. Polls are bouncing all over the place at the moment due to the events of the Republican and Democratic conventions. Tuesday's of major surveys actually has Obama up a tick, to a 3.1 percentage point lead from Sept. 10鈥檚 2.9.
But other individual polls are showing hints that Obama鈥檚 momentum is slowing, or that his bounce wasn鈥檛 as big as other surveys indicate.
A TIPP/Investor鈥檚 Business Daily/海角大神 Science Monitor poll released on Sept. 10 has Obama up by 2 percentage points, 46 to 44, among registered voters. And a new Washington Post/ABC News poll puts the presidential contenders in a virtual dead heat among likely voters, with Obama at 49 percent and Mr. Romney at 48 percent.
When all polls are taken into account, it still seems as if Obama may have received more of a boost from his convention than did Romney. But the gain may not be the game-changer that some early figures indicated.
鈥淪eems like we鈥檙e transitioning from will-Obama-gain-any-more-ground mode to will-he-keep-what-he-got mode,鈥� tweeted New York Times polling analyst Nate Silver this morning.
Given that, Obama鈥檚 chance of victory actually declined overnight in Mr. Silver鈥檚 election forecasting model at his . It is still high, however: The model puts the incumbent US chief executive鈥檚 reelection chances at 79.8 percent.
If Obama鈥檚 bounce is indeed fading, that would not count as a surprise. There鈥檚 a reason the word pollsters use in this context is 鈥渂ounce,鈥� instead of 鈥済ain.鈥� Bounces go up and come down. Monday, Romney pollster Neil Newhouse released a memo that dismissed convention bounces as a 鈥渟ugar high鈥� that some voters feel in the wake of their party鈥檚 quadrennial confab. His analysis here may yet prove right.
It may be next week, or even later, until the numbers calm down and stability returns to polls. (Stability, in this case, means their trends may generally mirror each other, whether the numbers do or not.) Then we can all get ready for the next big campaign event: the first presidential debate, on Oct. 3 at the University of Denver.