Was Mitt Romney's convention speech really a dud?
Not since Bob Dole's GOP convention speech in 1996 has a nominee's address fared so poorly with the public, says a new Gallup poll. Other surveys, though, show a definite gain for Mitt Romney.
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla.
David Goldman/AP
Charlotte, N.C.
Was Mitt Romney鈥檚 GOP convention speech a dud? That鈥檚 what a new Gallup poll appears to indicate. The just-released survey shows that Mr. Romney鈥檚 Thursday night address scored low compared with previous such speeches.
Thirty-eight percent of respondents rated Romney鈥檚 big moment as 鈥渆xcellent鈥� or 鈥済ood,鈥澛�. Thirty-seven percent judged it 鈥淥K,鈥� 鈥減oor,鈥� or 鈥渢errible.鈥�
That鈥檚 鈥渢he lowest rating of any of the eight speeches Gallup has tested since Bob Dole鈥檚 GOP acceptance speech in 1996,鈥� according to Gallup editor Frank Newport.
Plus, the Republican National Convention as a whole didn鈥檛 sway many voters, according to Gallup. Forty percent of respondents said it would make them 鈥渕ore likely鈥� to mark their ballots for Romney, while 38 percent said it would make them 鈥渓ess likely鈥� to vote GOP.
Well, we鈥檝e got a couple of comments here. The first is that one poll does not a trend make, even if it鈥檚 from a pollster as respected as Gallup. Other surveys indicate that Romney got at least a modest bounce out of his nominating convention in Tampa, Fla. now gives Romney a 48 percent to 44 percent lead over President Obama. That鈥檚 about a six-point gain for the GOP nominee over the past week.
Second, self-reported voting intentions 鈥� saying something will make you more or less likely to cast your ballot a certain way 鈥� is an imprecise measure of election outcomes. Lots of things affect an individual鈥檚 vote. In retrospect, it鈥檚 often hard to single out a particular event as the moment that pushed a voter one way or another. Events that seemed important at the time can fade by November.
Third, the real effect of the GOP convention can鈥檛 be measured until after this week鈥檚 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C. It鈥檚 possible that Mr. Obama may not get even a modest boost from the event 鈥� and it鈥檚 possible that he鈥檒l end up with polls showing him a consensus leader.
If the race remains roughly tied, or with only a percentage point or two separating the contenders. Romney might be able to claim that he did better out of the conventions than the incumbent did, writes New York Times on Monday.
Romney鈥檚 bounce 鈥渕ay turn out to be 鈥榡ust fine鈥� once we see a few more polls, and how the numbers move after Charlotte,鈥� writes Mr. Silver.