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How Bill Clinton's prime-time convention speech could hurt Obama

Democrats are excited that former President Bill Clinton will deliver a prime-time address the night before President Obama's big speech in Charlotte, N.C. But there could be a downside, which the Republicans are already trying to exploit.

Let鈥檚 first get something straight: Bill Clinton鈥檚 prime-time speech at the Democratic convention the night before President Obama鈥檚 isn鈥檛 going to decide the election. 聽

Yes, the charismatic former president remains extremely popular 鈥� 66 percent favorability in the latest CNN poll 鈥� and he could knock it out of the arena. Mr. Clinton has the potential, in particular, to reach white, working-class voters, a demographic that challenges Mr. Obama. But the election is still going to boil down to how swing voters feel about Obama鈥檚 potential to revive the economy over the next four years. Chances are, Clinton鈥檚 speech will be all but forgotten by Election Day. 聽

In fact, Clinton鈥檚 address 鈥� to be announced Monday, according to The New York Times 鈥� could end up hurting Obama.

鈥淭here will be people who say it helps Obama, but they鈥檙e already voting for him,鈥� says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville. 鈥淎nd it will just remind people that Obama is no Bill Clinton when it comes to the economy.鈥�

Clinton, of course, governed during a rare stretch of peace and prosperity, leaving office with the federal budget in surplus. There鈥檚 no doubt that he will point out the dire economic straits that Obama inherited from his predecessor, President George W. Bush. But increasingly, voters are tired of the blame game and just want Obama to present a credible plan for the next four years.

When news broke of Clinton鈥檚 role at the convention, the campaign of Republican candidate Mitt Romney pounced.

鈥淎fter four years of trillion-dollar deficits and anemic economic growth, it鈥檚 clear President Obama would love to run on President Clinton鈥檚 record in office,鈥� Romney spokesman Ryan Williams said in a statement. 鈥淏ut no amount of showmanship can paper over the differences between these two presidents. Americans deserve a president willing to run on his own record, not the record he wishes he had.鈥�

Clearly, Team Romney thinks Clinton鈥檚 prime-time role at the convention matters. And for Republicans, the Clinton appearance will provide an unflattering contrast with their own convention, which will have just taken place: The Democrats will present a picture of party unity that the Republicans can鈥檛 match. The junior ex-President Bush won鈥檛 have been at the Republican convention in Tampa, Fla.

Clinton鈥檚 presence also allows the Democrats to move beyond the at-times discordant narrative of the Clinton-Obama relationship, both during the 2008 presidential campaign of Clinton鈥檚 wife, now-Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, and more recently, in the former president鈥檚 comments on Mr. Romney and on policy.

In 2008, Bill Clinton famously dissed Obama鈥檚 candidacy, calling it a 鈥渇airy tale.鈥� This past spring, he raised eyebrows by going off-message in praising Romney鈥檚 record at Bain Capital and suggesting that all of the Bush-era tax cuts should be extended into next year.

But after Clinton鈥檚 public apology, all is forgiven. Now they鈥檙e united in the common cause of keeping the Democrats鈥� hold on the Oval Office. Clinton, after all, loves nothing more than a hotly contested campaign.

And speaking of campaigns ... we鈥檒l be watching Clinton鈥檚 remarks for any possible clues on his wife鈥檚 future. Secretary of State Clinton says she鈥檚 retiring at the end of this term, and looks forward to putting her feet up. But her husband has hinted he wants her to run again. Polls show her to be the instant front-runner for the Democratic nomination in 2016 if she runs.

Of course, Bill Clinton won鈥檛 go near the subject in his address in Charlotte, N.C. But watch his eyes during the speech. Maybe he鈥檒l be blinking out 鈥淗illary 鈥�16' 鈥� in Morse Code.