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Conspiracy theories arise around the near misses for Trump in Butler and Washington

The assassination attempt unfolded in the vicinity of hundreds of reporters. Surveillance footage of the alleged gunman racing through a checkpoint was publicly released. Administration officials gave press conferences and provided information about the events.

And yet, minutes after authorities say a lone gunman tried to attack the White House correspondents鈥� dinner on Saturday, cries of conspiracy began lighting up social media.

Some X accounts zoomed in on President Donald Trump鈥檚 face when shots rang out, finding his lack of apparent fear suspicious. Others questioned how security at such a major event could be so poor. Some even jumped on press secretary Karoline Leavitt鈥檚 remark prior to the dinnertime speeches that some 鈥渟hots鈥� would be fired. Many pointed out that Mr. Trump and his allies used the hours after the shooting to demand that his White House ballroom, which faces legal hurdles, be built for security reasons.

鈥淯ntil last night President Trump had never attended the White House [correspondents鈥橾 dinner as President. Oddly himself and nearly his entire cabinet attended this one, the one where there was an assassination attempt,鈥� Trisha Hope, a Trump delegate at the 2024 Republican convention and advocate for convicted Jan. 6 defendants, . 鈥淢ade for TV movie, that鈥檚 what this is,鈥� she wrote above a photo of Mr. Trump and other administration officials smiling at a press briefing following the shooting.

The flood of skepticism might have been boosted by the fact that social media was already abuzz in recent weeks with conspiracies around a different presidential assassination attempt: the one in Butler, Pennsylvania. Earlier this month, Ms. Hope wrote a viral suggesting that the 2024 Butler shooting had been staged 鈥� a theory that鈥檚 gained new traction of late among a number of far-right accounts, as well as some prominent conservative media figures and podcast hosts.

Mr. Trump was asked on CBS鈥檚 60 Minutes Sunday about the conspiracies building around these two shootings. He said he 鈥渉adn鈥檛 heard鈥� the conspiracies around Saturday. 鈥淯sually it takes a little bit longer,鈥� for a conspiracy to gain traction, the president said. 鈥淯sually they wait about two or three months to start saying that.鈥�

Notably, many of the voices raising suspicions about Butler and now the White House correspondents鈥� dinner have also been critical of Mr. Trump鈥檚 handling of the Epstein files 鈥� another topic that generated a host of conspiracy theories, some of which wound up being validated. And many are strong opponents of the war against Iran, which has caused sharp divisions in Mr. Trump鈥檚 鈥淎merica First鈥� coalition. As public disapproval of has pushed Mr. Trump鈥檚 overall approval rating below 40%, the , the president has found himself at odds with some of his longtime supporters.

Experts on conspiracy theories note that they often appeal to people who feel powerless or isolated, creating a sense of community and a way to impose meaning on a chaotic-seeming world in which faith in institutions has plummeted. As advancements in artificial intelligence make it increasingly difficult to tell the difference between real videos and fake ones, and amid historically low public trust in the media, the 鈥渙fficial鈥� version of major news events is being challenged like never before.

鈥淪o many people both on the right and the left are doubting whether this was a true event or staged incident. We are seeing people writing and questioning and analyzing photographs,鈥� says Jeffrey Dvorkin, a former ombudsperson at NPR and author of 鈥淭rusting the News in a Digital Era.鈥� 鈥淚t鈥檚 like 鈥楾he Matrix.鈥� We don鈥檛 know what to believe,鈥� he adds. Social media today is 鈥渁 petri dish of anxiety and misinformation.鈥�

Many of Mr. Trump鈥檚 supporters weren鈥檛 traditional Republicans when they were drawn to the MAGA movement, but they were united in part by an inclination for conspiracy theorizing, says Joseph Uscinski, a professor at the University of Miami. Mr. Trump himself leaned in to such conspiratorial thinking, pushing during his presidential campaign in 2016 the 鈥渂irther鈥� theory that former President Barack Obama was born outside the United States. Mr. Trump still claims that he won the 2020 election over former President Joe Biden, and just this week he posted on Truth Social that the Virginia referendum to redraw the state鈥檚 congressional districts was 鈥�.鈥�

A receptive audience

鈥淵ou build a coalition of conspiracy-minded, antiestablishment-minded followers, and you ride that to become the establishment; at some point, they are going to start pointing their ire at you,鈥� says Dr. Uscinski. 鈥淚t was only a matter of time for Trump to become a lighting rod for them.鈥�

Of course, much of MAGA is still behind the president. A recent poll suggests that of Republicans approve of Mr. Trump鈥檚 handling of the war, and the Republican-controlled Congress has so far blocked measures to curtail presidential war powers. In the wake of this weekend鈥檚 shooting, several Republicans in Congress have vowed to pass legislation to fast-track Mr. Trump鈥檚 ballroom, arguing that the structure is imperative for the president鈥檚 protection. And as with the shooting in Butler, administration officials and other Republicans have .

At a Department of Justice press conference Monday afternoon, acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said that they are investigating this week鈥檚 incident 鈥渇ully,鈥� adding that law enforcement 鈥渄id not fail鈥� and protected the president as intended.

Mr. Blanche said that the alleged shooter, Cole Allen, fired his shotgun and that it 鈥渁ppears鈥� five shots were fired by law enforcement, but that it was too early in the investigation to provide ballistic details. Mr. Allen鈥檚 manifesto, along with devices recovered in his hotel room and in California, confirms that his intent was to kill as many high-ranking administration officials as possible, investigators say. Mr. Allen currently faces three charges, including attempted assassination of the president, and U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said there could be more.

鈥淭his was an attempted assassination of the president of the United States, with the defendant making clear what his intent was,鈥� said Ms. Pirro . 鈥淎ny suggestion that he wasn鈥檛 there to do harm is absurd.鈥�

Doubt over an interrupted dinner

But users on X, some with of have still questioned this weekend鈥檚 events, with a central suspicion surrounding Mr. Trump鈥檚 decision to attend this year鈥檚 dinner after declining so many previous invitations. And like Ms. Hope, former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a onetime Trump ally who became sharply critical of the president after leaving office, has compared and contrasted the most recent shooting with the one in Butler. On X, Ms. Greene why Mr. Allen鈥檚 manifesto was released, while no manifesto from Butler shooter Thomas Matthew Crooks has surfaced. 鈥淚鈥檝e asked questions about the lack of security around President Trump before,鈥� . She says she鈥檚 still waiting to know what happened in Butler.

Conspiracy theories about Butler have floated around ever since the July 2024 shooting, in which one rallygoer was killed and Mr. Trump鈥檚 ear was nicked by a bullet. Online speculation, much of which initially seemed to come from left-leaning posters, raised questions about how such a massive security failure could have happened, why the White House never released official medical records about the president鈥檚 subsequent treatment at a nearby hospital, and why Secret Service agents allowed the president to rise up after the shooting for that now-iconic raised fist photo. 鈥淭he more you read about it, the more you鈥檙e like, 鈥榃hat is going on?鈥欌�� the week after the shooting.

Speculation on the right began growing last year when commentator Tucker Carlson posted on the shooter, criticizing the FBI鈥檚 handling of the case. It took off last month, after former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent, who had resigned from the Trump administration over disagreements about the Iran war, made an appearance on Mr. Carlson鈥檚 podcast and said that the investigation into the assassination attempt had been prematurely closed.

鈥淚鈥檓 not calling the Butler assassination a hoax,鈥� Ms. Greene earlier this month. 鈥淏ut there are a lot of questions that deserve public answers.鈥�

Other MAGA influencers are outright calling it a hoax. 鈥淛ust admit you staged it in Butler,鈥� comedian and conservative podcaster . 鈥淓xplain to us how you did it.鈥�

The Butler investigation

Investigations that spanned both the Biden and Trump administrations found that the Butler shooter, who was killed at the scene, acted alone.

A bipartisan congressional task force led a five-month investigation into the Butler assassination attempt that with state, local, and federal officials and reviewed almost 20,000 pages of documents. In a report, task force members highlighted 鈥渟ignificant failures鈥� by the Secret Service and law enforcement partners in the planning of the event. The report concluded that the shooting was preventable and 鈥渟hould not have happened鈥� 鈥� but found no evidence to suggest it was an inside job.

The FBI conducted its of the incident, and Director Kash Patel had promised to release more information about the shooter, Mr. Crooks. In a February interview, Fox News host Bret Baier asked Mr. Patel why the public still did not have 鈥渁 more robust picture鈥� of the shooter, to which Mr. Patel replied that the FBI had 鈥減ut out all the information ,鈥� while protecting 鈥渙ngoing matters that are unrelated鈥� to Mr. Crooks. More files, with redactions, were then by the FBI following a Freedom of Information Act request, further fueling suspicions.

鈥淚t鈥檚 never going to be enough for everyone,鈥� Mr. Patel told Mr. Baier. 鈥淚t鈥檚 never going to be enough.鈥�

Editor鈥檚 note: A paragraph in this article has been updated April 28, the date of initial publication, to give additional detail on the Butler, Pennsylvania, shooting and the public speculation that arose after it.