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America First? War in Iran threatens to split Trump鈥檚 MAGA coalition.

President Donald Trump, who has vowed to end America鈥檚 involvement in foreign wars since his first campaign a decade ago, is now engaged in the biggest military campaign of his presidency 鈥� and some of his most prominent supporters are not happy about it.

鈥淭here are massive divisions over what we have done here,鈥� said former Fox News host Megyn Kelly . 鈥淭his looks like ,鈥� said Curt Mills, executive director of the American Conservative. 鈥淲ith this Iran thing, I don鈥檛 see how the math works in our favor. ... I can鈥檛 take the gaslighting, guys,鈥� right-wing podcast host and filmmaker Matt Walsh in a of critical posts that prompted from White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.

With the administration warning that the Iran conflict could last weeks or more, it is creating an unusual degree of tension between President Trump and a number of MAGA commentators, many of whom were already upset about the Epstein files controversy. Frustrated Trump supporters are saying the president has lost touch with what his voters care about 鈥� and what 鈥淎merica First鈥� really means. As the Republican Party begins looking ahead toward a post-Trump era, the Iran conflict might crack Mr. Trump鈥檚 MAGA coalition in ways that could profoundly shape the 2026 and 2028 elections.

鈥淲hatever Trump鈥檚 new twisted perversion of MAGA is, is going to LOSE in the midterms,鈥� former GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who left Congress in January after a falling-out with the president, on Wednesday. 鈥淲e voted for America FIRST.鈥�

To be sure, many of Mr. Trump鈥檚 supporters 鈥� including , Mark Levin, and Ben Shapiro 鈥� have praised the Iran operation to their millions of followers since the United States and Israel launched their joint attack almost a week ago. And Republicans in Congress are largely backing the president. On Wednesday, all GOP senators except for Rand Paul voted against a war powers resolution that would have constrained the president鈥檚 ability to wage war against Iran. On Thursday, the House voted down a similar measure.

The president has brushed off the criticism from conservative influencers, telling journalist Rachael Bade that people like Tucker Carlson and Ms. Kelly and that his voters love 鈥渆very aspect鈥� of what he is doing.

鈥淧resident Trump is MAGA and MAGA is President Trump,鈥� White House spokesperson Olivia Wales tells the Monitor in a statement.

Polling suggests there is some truth to that. While show a majority of Americans oppose the strikes on Iran, they also have found a majority of Republicans are supportive. An found that 9 in 10 self-identified MAGA Republicans backed the strikes.

Yet much of Mr. Trump鈥檚 success over the past decade has come from his ability to attract not just core conservatives but independent voters and nontraditional Republicans, with a coalition bound together by a few core principles. One of them: a promise to focus on domestic issues and stop spending taxpayer dollars on endless overseas wars aimed at regime change.

鈥淭he movement will split if this is an extended conflict, because many supporters will feel like the promise of 鈥榥o new foreign wars鈥� was violated,鈥� says Brian Darling, former counsel to Senator Paul, a Kentucky Republican. 鈥淭he midterms will be a referendum on the Republican Party, and if it goes poorly, this conflict will be one of the issues that will be pointed at.鈥�

America First?

Mr. Trump laid out his America First agenda on the 2016 campaign trail before he had even secured the GOP nomination. 鈥淎merica First will be the major and overriding theme of my administration,鈥� he said , adding that U.S. goals in the Middle East should be to 鈥減romote regional stability, not radical change.鈥� Throughout his first term, and again leading up to 2024, Mr. Trump reiterated this 鈥淎merica First鈥� vision as one that would prioritize Americans鈥� daily struggles at home over faraway lands.

Some members of his current administration were even blunter on that point. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, who represented Hawaii in Congress as a Democrat, joined the Republican Party and endorsed Mr. Trump in 2024 because he 鈥�,鈥� she said. During her own presidential campaign in 2020, Ms. Gabbard sold T-shirts that read: 鈥�.鈥�

Likewise, Vice President JD Vance praised Mr. Trump鈥檚 avoidance of foreign entanglements during the president鈥檚 first term, when endorsing the Mr. Trump in 2023. 鈥淢y entire adult lifetime has been shaped by presidents who threw America into unwise wars,鈥� Mr. Vance wrote in . 鈥淣ot starting wars is perhaps a low bar, but that鈥檚 a reflection of the hawkishness of Mr. Trump鈥檚 predecessors and the foreign-policy establishment they slavishly followed.鈥�

This vision spoke to Trump voters, many of whom were frustrated about declining manufacturing jobs and the rising cost of living at home even as the U.S. spent trillions of dollars on wars in the Middle East.

Some of Mr. Trump鈥檚 supporters are now struggling to reconcile his past statements with more recent ones 鈥� such as a Truth Social post this week about how 鈥�.鈥欌赌�

Controversy around Israel

The blowback from MAGA influencers went into overdrive this week after Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the administration decided to strike 鈥減roactively in a defensive way鈥� after learning that Israel planned to attack Iran and that Iran would likely retaliate against the U.S., making it an 鈥渋mminent threat.鈥�

鈥淸Rubio]鈥檚 flat out telling us that we鈥檙e in a war with Iran because Israel forced our hand,鈥� . 鈥淭his is basically the worst possible thing he could have said.鈥�

鈥淭his happened because Israel wanted it to happen,鈥� .

Israel has become an increasingly divisive issue within the GOP in recent years, as conservative commentators have debated the country鈥檚 influence in American politics, with some verging into explicit antisemitism and Jewish conspiracy theories. Last fall, Mr. Carlson set off a firestorm when he interviewed Nick Fuentes, a far-right influencer who promotes white nationalism and has praised Adolf Hitler.

Mr. Fuentes, who has more than 1.2 million followers on X, is now one of the loudest voices expressing opposition to the Iran war 鈥� and to Mr. Trump. 鈥淭his is a war of aggression for Israel,鈥� he wrote.

In the Oval Office on Tuesday, Mr. Trump denied that Israel had forced his hand on Iran, saying it might have been the other way around. But that has not alleviated the complaints.

鈥淢ake America Great Again was supposed to be America First 鈥� not Israel first, not any foreign country first, not any foreign people first, but the American people first and our problems,鈥� said Ms. Greene on . She later lamented the cost of the war to American taxpayers 鈥� some estimates put it at $1 billion a day 鈥� at a time of dwindling Social Security funds and unaffordable health insurance. 鈥淚ncredible MAGA priorities,鈥� .

Ms. Greene highlighted the primary election turnout in Texas this week, in which turned out to vote than Republicans, as a precursor of what鈥檚 to come. White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair noted on social media that all of the president鈥檚 endorsed candidates won on Tuesday or advanced to a runoff 鈥� a reminder, he said, that 鈥測our algorithm and/or favorite 鈥榠nfluencer鈥� .鈥�

Still, public polling and history suggest Republicans will face an uphill battle in November to hold on to their narrow majorities in the House and Senate. The president鈥檚 party typically loses seats in midterm elections, and many of Mr. Trump鈥檚 own supporters say the Iran conflict might weigh the GOP down even more.

Blake Neff, producer of 鈥淭he Charlie Kirk Show,鈥� wrote on X that some of his right-leaning friends have texted that they . 鈥淭he midterms are going to be ugly,鈥� , a far-right media figure, in response to a post about young conservatives鈥� waning enthusiasm. 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to ,鈥� predicted Steve Bannon, a chief strategist during Mr. Trump鈥檚 first term, on his 鈥淲ar Room鈥� podcast.

Late Thursday, Mr. Trump shared an article about how 鈥淓x-MAGA influencers鈥� have lost their clout.