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Why a government shutdown looms as Congress splits town

Congress is gone, with no plan to avert a looming government shutdown.

The House and Senate headed off on a weeklong break Friday with the clock ticking to midnight on Sept. 30, when funds will run out for the federal government.

Before leaving town, House Republicans passed a continuing resolution to keep the government open at current spending levels for seven weeks, until shortly before Thanksgiving. All but two House Republicans backed the bill; all but one House Democrat opposed it.

A short time later, the Senate voted on that measure and an alternate bill offered by Democrats that had a number of their health care policy priorities. Both failed to pass.

That leaves the Senate with just two workdays to avoid a shutdown when it returns.

Government funding bills are among the few must-pass measures that require votes from both parties. Normally, a seven-week continuing resolution would be standard practice for Congress, which excels at kicking the can down the road and often makes hard, longer-term decisions only when threatened with missing its vacation time 鈥� which is why it set the new pre-Thanksgiving deadline. And top Democrats and Republicans on the House and Senate Appropriations committees have continued to work together to try to reach a longer-term deal on critical government funds. Leaders in both parties are offering competing short-term extensions to fund the federal government for the next year and to avoid widespread disruptions in government work, as well as to pay for federal employees and contractors across the United States, while they work out those agreements.

But two factors are significantly raising the likelihood of a shutdown this time around: the Trump administration鈥檚 refusal to spend money appropriated by Congress, and increased pressure by Democrats for their leaders to respond.

First, since he returned to office, President Donald Trump and his administration have repeatedly refused to spend money that was legally approved by Congress, unprecedented moves that essentially seized the power of the purse from Congress, the wing of the government that was constitutionally vested with that power.

Congressional Republicans voted to approve those cuts, known as rescissions, months after the fact, making them stick. But just before members of Congress returned to Washington to sort out a government funding fight this month, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought announced that the administration won鈥檛 spend nearly $5 billion in foreign aid that had been authorized by Congress. He claimed that since it鈥檚 close to the end of the fiscal year, the administration can make a 鈥減ocket rescission鈥� and cut the spending without Congress ever getting a say.

Pocket rescissions are illegal, the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office. That view is shared by Republican Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the moderate chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, who has lambasted Mr. Vought for the move. A number of her more conservative GOP colleagues also expressed frustration, but there鈥檚 nothing in Republicans鈥� continuing resolution that would make it any harder for the Trump administration to make future rescissions.

Democrats say that鈥檚 made it nearly impossible to trust any deal that Republicans propose.

鈥淒onald Trump and his little minion Russell Vought have made a total mockery of the congressional appropriations process. He has trampled over Congress鈥檚 power of the purse,鈥� Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a Friday speech on the Senate floor. 鈥淲hy pass a budget if Russell Vought can unilaterally rescind it?鈥�

President Trump seems unconcerned about repercussions from a shutdown.

鈥淓lections have consequences, so we'll continue to talk to the Democrats, but I think you could very well end up with a closed country for a period of time,鈥� he said Friday afternoon.

The second reason a shutdown is more likely than in times past is simply political. Mr. Schumer and Democrats are feeling immense pressure from their base to do something, anything, to act as a check on President Trump.

When asked what his Democratic constituents were telling him they wanted in this bill, centrist-leaning Democratic Rep. Scott Peters of California quipped, 鈥淵ou mean, other than blood?

鈥淭here鈥檚 a lot of concern about what the president鈥檚 doing right now, and that Congress needs to assert itself. And I hope we will as part of the CR [continuing resolution] process,鈥� he continued.

Mr. Schumer took heat from the Democratic base for folding in March, and persuading enough of his colleagues to vote with Republicans for a six-month extension of government funding. That led to calls for his removal from leadership from a number of liberal groups, and fury from his voters.

At the time, Mr. Schumer and the handful of Senate Democrats who sided with him argued that a government shutdown would do little to pressure President Trump to stop his broad slashing of the federal government. They also warned that it could actually empower Mr. Trump to do more damage because it鈥檚 the president who gets to decide what parts of the government are essential, and therefore have to continue to work. That argument may still hold water now.

But most of the Senate Democrats who sided with Mr. Schumer last time sound very different now.

Illinois Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin said the rescissions and other moves to cut government funds had 鈥渃hanged the landscape鈥� for him since he voted with Mr. Schumer and Republicans in March.

Maryland Democratic Rep. Jamie Raskin鈥檚 district lies just outside Washington, and has more federal workers than almost any other.

鈥淚鈥檝e been meeting nonstop with government workers since this nightmare began in January, and they have been unfairly and unceremoniously sacked, fired. ... They want this reign of terror to end, and so we鈥檙e doing everything in our power to make that happen,鈥� he said.

But when asked whether he thought a shutdown could make things worse by stopping their paychecks while doing nothing to stop the Trump administration鈥檚 actions, he dodged.

鈥淭his is what a negotiation is all about,鈥� he responded.

Democrats push for health care changes

Democrats鈥� specific policy asks are a bit more straightforward and easier to resolve than their concern that any agreement will just be ignored by President Trump. Democrats Wednesday for a one-month extension of government spending that would permanently extend subsidies to the Affordable Care Act, known as 鈥淥bamacare,鈥� which are set to expire at the end of the year. It would also reverse major cuts to Medicaid that were included in the GOP鈥檚 鈥淥ne Big Beautiful Bill鈥� that passed earlier this year.

Mr. Schumer branded it as the 鈥淭rump health care shutdown鈥� during his Friday speech as he railed against Republicans for refusing to negotiate.

Republicans made clear the Democratic proposal for major concessions in exchange for a one-month extension was a nonstarter.

鈥淚f they were going to extort us for major pieces of health care policy every time we were going to do a seven-week stopgap, I just don鈥檛 think that would work very well,鈥� said South Dakota Republican Rep. Dusty Johnson.

Mr. Johnson said the standoff is happening because of internal Democratic politics.

鈥淐huck Schumer needs to seem like a tough guy to his base. They think he got rolled in March. He needs to be angry and fight. ... And I think that means the Schumer shutdown,鈥� he said.

Historically, the party that forces a government shutdown over policy demands is usually the one that gets blamed for that shutdown 鈥� and it usually doesn鈥檛 get anything substantial out of it. House Republicans鈥� poll numbers plunged in 2013 when they shut down the government to force a repeal of Obamacare, Democrats鈥� short-lived shutdown in early 2018 delivered zero, and Mr. Trump took the blame when he shut down the government in late 2018 and early 2019 to try to force Congress to fund a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. Despite the hit to poll numbers in each case, there鈥檚 little evidence that it actually hurt the party that forced the shutdown in any of the subsequent elections, however.

There is some bipartisan support for extending subsidies to lower-income people who are on Obamacare 鈥� subsidies that originated at the beginning of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. Insurance rates are set to jump at the end of this year, and many families could face聽monthly聽premium increases of anywhere from $300 to $500 if the subsidies expire.

Moderate Republican Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski, one of two GOP senators who voted against her party鈥檚 continuing resolution, introduced a separate bill Friday to extend those subsidies.

Even if Republicans agree to some money for health care premiums, it鈥檚 unclear if that alone could be enough for a deal to avert a shutdown. But at the moment, Democrats seem eager to prove to their base that they won鈥檛 give in as they did six months ago, while Republicans see no reason to negotiate any policy riders in this short-term bill. If neither side blinks, the government shuts down in 10 days.