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Why Harris has more at stake in Tuesday鈥檚 debate than Trump

The last presidential debate upended the 2024 election. This one could prove just as consequential.

When Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump meet onstage Tuesday night for their first 鈥� and possibly only 鈥� debate, it will give Americans their first side-by-side comparison of their choices for president.

Ms. Harris arguably has the most at stake. Americans鈥� opinions of Mr. Trump are firmly established after nearly a decade on the national stage. But many voters are still learning about Ms. Harris, who suddenly ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket after the previous debate drove President Joe Biden from the race. And they鈥檙e still deciding whether they like and trust her enough to put her in the Oval Office.

鈥淓verybody knows Trump at this point,鈥� says Todd Graham, a presidential debate expert who coaches debate at Southern Illinois University. 鈥淭his is a big opportunity for Vice President Harris to showcase herself for the first time in front of everybody on the same stage as Trump. I would say it鈥檚 crucially important.鈥�

Risk and opportunity for Trump, too

Mr. Trump鈥檚 performance could matter greatly, too. He鈥檚 capable of delivering sharp rhetorical jabs 鈥� his 2016 primary campaign rise was aided by his cage-match takedowns of opponents on the debate stage. But other performances have been uneven, with overly aggressive, bullying behavior hurting him in the polls both in 2016 and 2020. His June debate performance against President Biden was far from stellar, but was overshadowed by the president鈥檚 inability to articulate basic points. Mr. Trump has shown a lack of discipline on the campaign trail in recent days, as liars, and promising again to who attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.

鈥淭his will be the defining event for Kamala Harris. And Donald Trump can either distract from that, or help define her in a way that advantages him in the campaign,鈥� says Brett O鈥橠onnell, a GOP debate coach who worked for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis鈥� presidential campaign in 2024.

The debate, hosted by ABC News, comes as polls show a tied race in the states that will determine who wins in November. Not surprisingly, both candidates have sought to downplay expectations.聽

鈥淚鈥檓 going into very hostile territory in a debate with ABC,鈥� Mr. Trump said Friday in extended remarks to reporters in New York City in which he didn鈥檛 take questions. 鈥淎BC is the worst of everybody. They鈥檙e the nastiest. They鈥檙e as bad as you can be.鈥�

Ms. Harris and her team have repeatedly described her as an 鈥渦nderdog鈥� in both the race and the debate. Democrats also point out that Mr. Trump has much more experience in presidential debates 鈥� not to mention decades spent as a fixture on TV.

鈥淭here鈥檚 never been a presidential candidate who鈥檚 done more presidential debates than Donald Trump. He has experience doing them, and he plays well on camera. That鈥檚 why his biggest career achievement is running a reality TV show,鈥� says Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson.

The swing voters who won鈥檛 be watching

Many of the voters most likely to decide the election probably won鈥檛 be watching it live, Mr. Ferguson adds, but will form their opinions based on what breaks through in clips and headlines afterward. Undecided voters tend to be less politically engaged, and many are just starting to tune into the election.聽

鈥淭he conversation that will matter the most is the one people have the morning after the debate with their family members and friends,鈥� he says.

Ms. Harris鈥� campaign unsuccessfully sought to change a rule about candidates鈥� microphones being muted when it wasn鈥檛 their turn to speak. Back when President Biden was still the candidate, his team had pushed for this rule, thinking it would keep Mr. Trump from talking over him. Instead, Mr. Biden鈥檚 at-times incoherent remarks wound up on full display in the June debate. Ms. Harris鈥� team seemed to think keeping the mics on might expose Mr. Trump鈥檚 bullying tendencies while giving her a chance to fact-check him in real time 鈥� but they lost that fight. Tuesday鈥檚 debate in Philadelphia will also take place without an audience.

Harris鈥� uneven track record in debates

Ms. Harris has had a mixed record when it comes to debate performances. Her best moments have come when she鈥檚 used her well-honed prosecutorial skills to go after her opponents. She made a national name for herself grilling Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee, leaving now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and then-Attorney General Bill Barr stammering for words in response to pointed questions.

When Ms. Harris herself has been attacked, however, she has wound up parsing words, growing defensive, or awkwardly trying to laugh off serious questions. This year, she has so far shown herself to be a much-improved candidate since her ill-fated first presidential run, but she has yet to be tested with many tough questions. The campaign has granted just one sit down TV interview in the month-plus she鈥檚 been the nominee.

鈥淪he had some good moments 鈥� and some learning moments 鈥� from the 2020 campaign,鈥� says Brian Brokaw, a former Harris adviser who was involved in her debate prep during her statewide runs in California for attorney general and Senate. 鈥淥ne thing that has been consistent throughout her career is: She has consistently improved significantly.鈥�

The high point of Ms. Harris鈥� 2020 presidential run came when she eviscerated her future running mate, Mr. Biden, on the debate stage, calling him out for working with segregationist senators to block school busing. She personalized the moment with a memorable line about how she had been part of the second class to integrate in her school system 鈥�

But in another primary debate she was rattled by an attack from then-Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, 聽on incarceration rates. Ms. Gabbard is now backing Mr. Trump, and helping him with debate prep.

Ms. Harris held her own during the 2020 general election debate against then-Vice President Mike Pence 鈥� a debate that is likely remembered by voters, if at all, for a full two minutes.

On Tuesday, she will almost certainly try to get under Mr. Trump鈥檚 skin. He has made a number of missteps since she entered the race, most notably when he questioned, at an event with the National Association of Black Journalists, whether Ms. Harris really is a Black woman.聽

Republicans are hoping Mr. Trump will keep his focus on policy issues, and avoid personal attacks that could turn off swing voters.

鈥淭he advice I鈥檇 give to Donald Trump is, I would write four words at the top of my pad: weak, failed, dangerously liberal. And everything I said in that debate should be to support proving those four words about Kamala Harris,鈥� says Mr. O鈥橠onnell. 鈥淎nything else I would not say. I wouldn鈥檛 attack her personally.鈥�