海角大神

Trump鈥檚 big week of wins compounds Democratic frustration

For former President Donald Trump, it鈥檚 been one of the best weeks of his political career.聽

First, Thursday鈥檚 poor debate performance by President Joe Biden sparked a full-fledged panic among Democrats, with scores of columnists and strategists immediately calling for a new nominee, drowning out concerns over Mr. Trump鈥檚 own debate misstatements and falsehoods.

The following day, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in favor of a defendant who was charged with obstructing an official proceeding when he entered the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 鈥� throwing into question both ongoing prosecutions and previous convictions of other Jan. 6 defendants.聽鈥淭he Supreme Court ruled that Biden鈥檚 Department of Justice has wrongly prosecuted hundreds of Americans for peacefully protesting on Jan. 6,鈥� the former president trumpeted at a Friday rally in in Chesapeake, Virginia, to loud cheers from the crowd.

But Mr. Trump鈥檚 biggest windfall came on Monday, when the Supreme Court endorsed an expansive view of presidential immunity. In a 6-3 decision, the highest court ruled that the chief executive has 鈥渁bsolute immunity from criminal prosecutions鈥� for official acts taken as president. The case will go back to the lower courts to determine whether Mr. Trump鈥檚 various efforts to overturn the 2020 election constituted official or unofficial acts, but it鈥檚 highly unlikely Mr. Trump will stand trial for any of it before the November election, if ever.

To the court鈥檚 dissenting justices, the ruling effectively makes the president 鈥渁 king above the law鈥� 鈥� an expansive view that Mr. Trump appears to share. In a fundraising email, he wrote, 鈥淚 have TOTAL IMMUNITY on official acts.鈥� Hours after the court ruled, Mr. Trump鈥檚 legal team filed a motion to overturn his recent Manhattan conviction, citing the immunity case, and on Tuesday the judge announced that his sentencing in that case would be delayed until Sept. 18.

All of this has created a one-two punch for Democrats in a matter of days. The presidential debate appeared to increase Mr. Trump鈥檚 odds of retaking the White House, just as the U.S. Supreme Court 鈥� with the help of three justices Mr. Trump appointed 鈥撀爌rotected him from accountability, and vastly expanded the powers of the presidency in ways that will allow him to better execute his agenda if he wins.聽It鈥檚 left many Democrats feeling both despondent and resigned to what they say seems like yet another example of Mr. Trump getting to play by a different set of rules.

鈥淓veryone else has to pitch a perfect game 鈥� and all Donald Trump has to do is exist. And I can tell you as someone who has worked on a presidential campaign trying to defeat Trump unsuccessfully, that鈥檚 really hard,鈥� says Democratic strategist Joel Payne, who worked on Hillary Clinton鈥檚 2016 campaign. 鈥淪ome of it is luck; some of it is by design. ... The design is having Mitch McConnell hold open an additional Supreme Court seat [until Mr. Trump could fill it]. The luck part is that Joe Biden鈥檚 age, for whatever reason, showed on stage at a very inopportune time.鈥澛�

Small but significant shifts

In many ways, this week stands in sharp contrast to the preceding few months. At the end of May, a New York jury found Mr. Trump guilty on 34 felony counts in his hush money trial, the first-ever criminal conviction for a former U.S. president. Many independent voters, who are likely to decide this election, said the conviction made them less inclined to support Mr. Trump, who saw a small dip in the polls.

Last Thursday鈥檚 presidential debate on CNN, held months earlier than usual, was an opportunity for the Biden campaign to try to capitalize on that momentum. Some Democrats even hoped the president could seize the lead for the first time, after trailing Mr. Trump for much of the year.

Those hopes vanished after Mr. Biden鈥檚 halting and feeble performance. The best-case scenario for Mr. Biden, which his campaign was fervently pitching to reporters in the hours after the debate, was that the polls would show little movement.

Initial signs indicate that, at least when it comes to the head-to-head matchup, that prediction may prove correct. On Tuesday, a CNN survey taken after the debate showed Mr. Trump leading by 49% to 43% 鈥� the same exact lead he had held over Mr. Biden in April. With voters so polarized, very few appear open to changing their minds, and experts say opinions of the candidates have been largely fixed since Day 1.

鈥淭his is the best week Trump鈥檚 had in months,鈥� says Republican pollster Whit Ayres. But that doesn鈥檛 mean the overall race dynamic has been 鈥渇lipped on its head,鈥� he adds.聽聽

At the same time, Tuesday鈥檚 CNN poll found that Mr. Biden鈥檚 approval rating had fallen to just 36%, the lowest of his entire presidency and a bright-red warning sign for an incumbent. And just 43% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they believed Mr. Biden was the candidate with the best chance to win in November; 56% said they鈥檇 be better off with someone else.

On Tuesday, the first sitting Democratic member of Congress, Rep. Lloyd Doggett of Texas, on Mr. Biden to withdraw from the race.

Looking for an opportunity to change the conversation in their favor, the Biden campaign has seized on Monday鈥檚 Supreme Court ruling to try to highlight one of the main themes of both Mr. Biden鈥檚 2020 and 2024 campaigns: protecting democracy.聽

鈥淭oday鈥檚 ruling underscores the stakes,鈥� said Quentin Fulks, deputy campaign manager for the Biden-Harris campaign, on a call with reporters Monday. 鈥淚f anything, this can be used as an amplifier, and the American people will see it as an amplifier, to justify what we have been saying 鈥� which is the fact that Donald Trump wants to be a dictator.鈥�

But even here, Mr. Biden may be fighting an uphill battle.

Although voters in the six swing states most likely to decide the election rank 鈥渢hreats to U.S. democracy鈥� as a , according to a recent poll, they do not see Mr. Biden as the best candidate to protect it. Instead, 44% believe Mr. Trump 鈥渨ould do a better job鈥� handling the issue, compared with 33% who chose Mr. Biden.

鈥淭rump has been very successful changing the narrative around Jan. 6,鈥� says Marjorie Hershey, a political scientist at Indiana University Bloomington. He has relentlessly put forward an alternative view of the events of that day, repeatedly calling those arrested for their actions 鈥減atriots鈥� and even 鈥渉ostages.鈥� The recent Supreme Court rulings will likely only bolster these arguments.

Democracy may always have been a somewhat squishy issue for Mr. Biden to center his campaign on, says Professor Hershey 鈥� particularly compared with something like inflation, which Mr. Trump has made a key component of his campaign.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not easy to make an abstraction 鈥� like protecting democracy 鈥� a top agenda item,鈥� she says. 鈥淎bstractions just aren鈥檛 up there with day-to-day concerns.鈥�

The view from voters

At Mr. Trump鈥檚 rally in Chesapeake on Friday, many voters said they were supporting Mr. Trump because of the economy and immigration.聽Democracy didn鈥檛 seem to be a top concern.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think that Jan. 6 is the big elephant in the room anymore,鈥� said Heather Connors, a job coach for special education students in Virginia Beach, as she waited in line for refreshments.聽

鈥淚 don鈥檛 have issues with democracy. I鈥檓 a Black American, and if I want to vote, I vote,鈥� said Giovanni Dolmo, a veteran who is running for mayor of Norfolk. 鈥淲hat I鈥檓 having issues with is my groceries, my mortgage, my gas. ... Those are my issues, and Biden is not handling those issues.鈥澛犅�

Still, there is a chance that Monday鈥檚 ruling could have the mobilizing effect on Democrats that the Biden campaign hopes it will.聽

Stacey Mars, chair of the Greenville County Democratic Black Caucus in South Carolina, admits that she didn鈥檛 watch the debate, since she knew nothing could happen in those 90 minutes to change her vote. But after Monday鈥檚 court ruling, she says she feels a renewed enthusiasm for Mr. Biden鈥檚 campaign.

鈥淭he Supreme Court decision just made me want to dig in even more and make sure Trump does not get reelected,鈥� says Ms. Mars. 鈥淚f people want to get scared, fine. But let that fear motivate you to do something about it.鈥澛�