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Taking on Trump: How 2024 might be different from 2016

The battle has been joined.

Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina, is now officially running for president 鈥� the first major Republican to take on former President Donald Trump, a declared candidate since November.

Tim Scott, a fellow South Carolinian and the only Black Republican in the U.S. Senate, launches a listening tour today for his own potential run. Mike Pence, the former vice president, is on a two-state swing ahead of his own possible campaign.聽

Many other prominent Republicans are likely to follow, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by far the strongest competitor against Mr. Trump in polls of GOP voters. Governor DeSantis is in several months.聽

All of which raises the billion-dollar question: Will the 2024 presidential cycle be a rerun of 2016, when Mr. Trump clawed his way to the Republican nomination by capturing pluralities of votes in winner-take-all primaries? Or will a new dynamic take hold?聽

In a basic way, the math points to another 2016: A dozen or more prominent Republicans are expected to get in. President Joe Biden, an octogenarian struggling in the polls, presents a juicy target in his own anticipated run for reelection. And Mr. Trump commands a loyal following of GOP voters 鈥撀�, but enough to divide and conquer the rest of the field.聽

鈥淚f not the presumptive nominee, he鈥檚 certainly the front-runner,鈥� says Republican strategist Doug Heye. 鈥淪ure, his numbers have been dipping and we鈥檝e seen instances where his message doesn鈥檛 resonate quite as much. But he鈥檚 still more than first among equals. He鈥檚 got a base; he gets more media coverage than anyone else; he has money in the bank.鈥澛�

Still, political analysts say, the dynamic of the 2024 cycle is in many ways different from 2016. Back then, in the early going, Mr. Trump 鈥� a businessman and reality TV star 鈥� was a novelty act who shocked the GOP establishment, as when he called Mexicans rapists, criminals, and drug dealers in his announcement speech. Many Republicans didn鈥檛 take him seriously. Now, it鈥檚 clear anyone who discounts Mr. Trump does so at their peril.聽

And once again, Mr. Trump is playing a unique role. He鈥檚 the first defeated one-term president to run for his old office in modern history 鈥� and as such, there鈥檚 no road map. He is, in effect, a pseudo-incumbent, running to unseat an actual incumbent, each with a presidential record to run on.聽

Republican primary voters face a fateful decision. But it鈥檚 still early days. So far, Mr. Trump鈥檚 2024 campaign has been remarkably low-key. Perhaps, some political observers suggest, his heart just isn鈥檛 in it; maybe he鈥檒l change his mind about running.聽

Or, it may just be that he鈥檚 pacing himself. Some observers point to Mr. Trump鈥檚 influence in the 2022 midterms as a sign that he鈥檚 still very much in the game.

鈥淭hey鈥檙e going to have this really crowded field, and tons of candidates that can鈥檛 really differentiate themselves from one another,鈥� says Jennifer Lawless, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 know if they鈥檙e Trump; they don鈥檛 know if they鈥檙e not Trump. We鈥檝e seen that dysfunction play out in Congress.鈥澛�

The fact that so many prominent Republicans are running against Mr. Trump, or preparing to run, is evidence enough that he鈥檚 vulnerable.聽

In her campaign debut this week, Ms. Haley 鈥� who served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under Mr. Trump 鈥� sought to thread the needle between distancing herself from her controversial former boss while also not attacking him. Her digs against Mr. Trump were indirect, as when she seemed to go after both him and the current president in her pitch for generational change.聽

鈥淎merica is not past its prime. It鈥檚 just that our politicians are past theirs,鈥� said Ms. Haley, who is in her early 50s.聽She also said she favored a 鈥渕andatory mental competency test for politicians over 75 years old.鈥� Mr. Trump falls in that category, as does Mr. Biden.

She highlighted her parents鈥� background as immigrants from India, and her unique identity in GOP presidential politics as a woman of color. But Republicans, including Ms. Haley herself, are quick to say that their party doesn鈥檛 engage in 鈥渋dentity politics.鈥澛�

鈥淩epublicans rebel against being told to vote for someone because of race, color, or religion,鈥� says Chapin Fay, a GOP communications strategist in New York. Still, he adds, 鈥淩epublicans want to expand the tent and live up to [former President Ronald] Reagan鈥檚 ideals.鈥�

Indeed, the optimism that Ms. Haley sought to project in her campaign debut seemed to come right from the Reagan playbook. The 鈥淎merican era鈥� hasn鈥檛 passed, she said. America is not a 鈥渞acist country.鈥�

But she also highlighted the culture war themes of race and education that have dominated the early going of the 2024 cycle 鈥撀燼nd have rocketed Mr. DeSantis to national prominence, and could also be Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin鈥檚 calling card if he decides to run.聽

Ms. Haley, less widely known nationally than the Florida governor, may well have been smart to jump in first after Mr. Trump, earning several days of national media coverage. Her entrance drew relatively mild swipes from her former boss, whom she had once pledged not to oppose in a presidential race.聽

In an interview with , Mr. Trump said he welcomed her to the race 鈥� even hinting at how the math works in his favor. 鈥淭he more the merrier,鈥� he said, adding, 鈥淚 want her to follow her heart 鈥� even though she made a commitment that she would never run against who she called the greatest president of all time.鈥澛�

The former president offered a sharper dig on Truth Social, calling her appointment to the U.N. ambassadorship in 2017 鈥渁 favor to the people I love in South Carolina鈥� 鈥� i.e., getting her out of the governorship.

So far, Mr. Trump has not bestowed upon her a signature nickname. As more Republicans get in, however, he may feel duty-bound to deliver.聽

鈥淭rump is in a kind of awkward situation,鈥� says Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Iowa, which will hold the crucial first GOP nominating contest next year. 鈥淥n the one hand, he takes it as personally offensive to him when people challenge him. But he also knows, the more the merrier.鈥澛�

Some prominent Republicans note with disappointment that, in her announcement speech, Ms. Haley failed to mention the most courageous act of her governorship: removing the Confederate flag from the South Carolina State House grounds. The move, taken with bipartisan support, was a response to the 2015 massacre of Black parishioners by a white supremacist at a historically Black church in Charleston.聽

The issue of the Confederate flag remains fraught in the South, as some residents view it as a symbol of their heritage, not of racism.聽

Henry Barbour, longtime member of the Republican National Committee from Mississippi, says he became a Haley fan back in 2015 when the flag came down in Charleston.聽

鈥淚t was a powerful moment in South Carolina history,鈥� Mr. Barbour says, noting that Mississippi removed the Confederate symbol from its own state flag in 2020. 鈥淚t shows she鈥檚 willing to lead. ... She did the right thing. I鈥檇 encourage her to talk about that.鈥澛�

Mr. Barbour is also a big proponent of highlighting diversity within the GOP, even while rejecting identity politics. The party is, in fact, diversifying, as seen in the slight uptick in the Black and Latino vote for Mr. Trump in 2020.

A message of inclusion will help the party win back some of the suburban voters it lost in 2016 and 2020, he says.聽鈥淭hat鈥檚 where the aspirational message 鈥� addition versus division 鈥� helps us regain those lost voters.鈥澛�