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GOP makes gains with minorities. Will it change the party?

When Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi tore up President Donald Trump鈥檚 State of the Union speech in February 2020, she inspired a Black female Iraq War veteran to run for office 鈥� as a Republican.

As Lt. Col. Jennifer-Ruth Green watched Ms. Pelosi鈥檚 symbolic gesture on television, she thought to herself:听Congress declares war. If you are telling me that you are not listening, how do I know when you declare war that you have heard all sides?听听

鈥淚n the military, we focus on bringing people together regardless of any differences, because the mission is so important,鈥� says Lieutenant Colonel Green, an Air Force reservist who won the GOP primary in Indiana鈥檚 1st Congressional District last month.听

While the political environment looks increasingly favorable to Republicans heading into the fall midterms, the number of competitive districts has dwindled compared with previous cycles, thanks to aggressive gerrymandering. So diverse candidates like Ms. Green represent a critical part of the GOP鈥檚 effort to win more Democratic-held seats.

It鈥檚 a strategy Republicans launched a decade ago and are leaning in on: recruiting and supporting candidates of color who听could represent and appeal to a broader range of voters.听In 2020, all but one of the 14 House seats the GOP flipped were won by a woman or minority candidate. And in statewide races, women and minorities accounted for 71% of the party鈥檚 successes, according to the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC).听Of the 16 nonwhite freshmen who entered Congress two months later,听听were Republican.

The party still has a long way to go. Overall, 83% of nonwhite members of Congress are Democrats, while 17% are Republicans. Still, that represents an increase over the last Congress, when 10% were Republicans.听

Proponents hail this shift as a slow but genuine transformation of a party that was established on an anti-slavery platform听but later attracted many Southern Democrats who opposed civil rights. Critics, however, see the GOP鈥檚 diversity initiatives as essentially a fig leaf that obscures the party鈥檚 unwillingness to grapple with racist strains within. For now, at least, it may come down to who can win.听

鈥淚t used to be window dressing. It鈥檚 more than that now,鈥� says Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes elections. 鈥淏ut their motives are not necessarily high-minded. They鈥檝e found a strategy that wins, and they鈥檙e going for it.鈥澨�听

As the GOP has made big gains with working-class voters in recent years, those gains have increasingly included working-class minorities 鈥� particularly Hispanics, one of the fastest-growing electorates, but also Black voters. In 2020, President Trump saw a听听in Hispanic support compared with 2016. A Wall Street Journal听听late last year showed that Hispanic support for the GOP has risen even more since then, with voters now evenly split between the parties.

The reasons for these gains are complicated, but they reflect in part a sense among some working-class people of color that the Democratic Party has moved too far left on cultural issues, as well as a receptivity to the GOP鈥檚 economic message of lower taxes and support for small businesses.

At a time when many voters are focused on soaring gas prices and grocery bills, Republicans see an opening for even bigger gains among minority groups. And whether there鈥檚 a genuine desire for transformation or not,听bringing more GOP candidates of color into Congress and the nation鈥檚 state legislatures could change both the party鈥檚 voter base and its policies.

鈥淏y having more diverse voices in the party, it鈥檚 an invitation to some folks who never considered it,鈥� says Tanya Contreras Wheeless, a Mexican American running for Congress in Arizona.

The first seeds

In 2012, the GOP saw a net gain of only one Hispanic legislator across all 50 states. It was an inauspicious start for a new effort to recruit diverse Republican candidates to local and state offices, initially focused on women and Hispanic听candidates. But despite a relatively听modest budget, the RSLC鈥檚 Future Majority Project steadily gained steam. The next cycle, in 2014, they recruited 240 diverse candidates in 40 states, 43 of whom won.听

The following cycle, they gave a young Jason Miyares not only money but also strategic听advice on everything from press releases to policy. The Cuban American landed a seat in Virginia鈥檚 state legislature and won his subsequent reelection bids. Last fall, he narrowly beat his Democratic opponent to become attorney general 鈥撎齛nd the first Hispanic of either party to be elected to statewide office in Virginia.听

鈥淵ou鈥檙e seeing those seeds that were planted in the last decade starting to bear fruit,鈥� says Attorney General Miyares. 鈥淚 think that has been a good thing for our country and for the party.鈥澨�

On the opposite coast, the Future Majority Project invested in Young Kim, a Korean American small-business owner who won election to the California State Legislature in 2014 by leaning into her story as an immigrant. 鈥淚 really focused on how my party is the Grand Opportunity Party that was working on pro-growth policies to make life affordable, keeping families safe, and ensuring future generations can pursue their American dream,鈥� she says. After serving one term, she set her sights on Congress 鈥� and in 2020, she helped the GOP take back four of the seven seats that Democrats had flipped in the 2018 election.听

Heading into the 2022 midterms, more minority Republican candidates are looking to follow in the footsteps of Attorney General Miyares and Representative Kim.听Among them is Ms. Wheeless of Arizona, who says she grew concerned when she saw Congress and the Biden administration increasing the scope of government 鈥渉andouts,鈥� sending COVID-19 relief checks to people who hadn鈥檛 even lost their jobs.听

鈥淲e absolutely should have safety nets for our vulnerable populations; I support that 100%,鈥� says Ms. Wheeless, a lifelong conservative听and former small-business owner. 鈥淥ne of the things I learned in business, and I think absolutely applies to government, is that when you try to do everything, you don鈥檛 do it very well. When you focus in on the really acute needs and the things you can do best, you鈥檙e actually much more successful.鈥�

Ms. Wheeless is running in Arizona鈥檚 4th District, which includes Phoenix and which the Cook Political Report recently shifted from 鈥淟ikely D鈥� to 鈥淟ean D.鈥澨鼳s of March, she had raised听听than all but one of her five GOP opponents, including $10,000 from听House Republican Caucus leader Elise Stefanik鈥檚 super听PAC.听

To build a bigger pipeline of people like Ms. Wheeless, the RSLC last fall introduced the Right Leaders Network, headlined by national Republican officials who got their start in state office. They include Representative Kim听and three potential 2024 presidential candidates:听Sens. Marco听Rubio and Tim Scott, the only Black Senate Republican, and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley,听the daughter of Indian immigrants.

The goal is not only to听inspire听more听minorities to run for state office as Republicans but also to encourage those who have been elected to parlay that success into winning seats in Congress.

鈥淎 lot of progress has been made, but we needed to do more,鈥� says Kamilah Prince,听who until recently was the听political director at the RSLC. 鈥淲e are the face of the future of the party, literally.鈥澨�

Taking it to the national level

As a room full of Black pastors savored the last forkfuls of dessert in an upscale Washington, D.C., hotel last fall, Ambassador Haley took the podium. 鈥淲hen I think of my hardest times, it鈥檚 the faith leaders I remember,鈥� said Ms. Haley, who worked her way up to a Trump Cabinet position after serving as a state legislator and later governor of South Carolina.

The single hardest moment, she told the group, was when as governor she reached out to the pastor of the Mother Emanuel Church in Charleston after getting word of the 2015 shooting during a Bible study. His phone rang and rang in his pocket. He had already been killed,听as were听eight other worshippers.听

Charleston, already shaken by the police shooting of Walter Scott two months prior, threatened to devolve into racial violence as Ferguson and Baltimore had in recent months. The next day, the killer鈥檚 racist manifesto was released and his face was all over national media with the Confederate flag 鈥� a flag that South Carolina still flew at its statehouse.

When Ms. Haley finally persuaded the state Legislature to take down the flag and the flagpole, it was cemented so strongly in the ground that it broke the first crane that tried to dismantle it. 鈥淚sn鈥檛 it symbolic: How deep-seated some things are, but how persistence can continue to tap at that?鈥� she asked the pastors at the luncheon, which was part of the Center for Urban Renewal and Education鈥檚 national policy summit.听

鈥淥ur job is to fight racism and discrimination everywhere it exists. We have to address the challenges that hold people back,鈥� she continued, pointing to an education system that fails too many students and an economy that traps people in poverty. But 鈥渋t makes me so mad when people say America is a racist country. Because I am a perfect example of why it鈥檚 not.鈥澨�

Many Republicans see the rise of anti-racist initiatives like The 1619 Project and the influence of critical race theory as having shifted the national conversation on race in an unhelpful direction. In this view, racism is increasingly presented as a defining feature of American democracy, built into the very structures of U.S. society听and governing ideals. To those on the right, this new doctrine is undermining a shared love of听country, while imposing a divisive racial lens on everything.

Those on the left criticize the GOP for tolerating or even abetting racism, citing the white nationalist and white supremacist views espoused by some Trump supporters and even members of Congress like Arizona Rep. Paul Gosar, who last year shared an anime video that showed him assassinating Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Critics argue that putting a few more diverse faces out in front of a party that refuses to reckon with such elements won鈥檛 help anything and could even entrench the problem by giving Republicans plausible deniability.听

Senator Scott has faced a barrage of racist attacks, including being called an 鈥淯ncle Tim,鈥� and at times he has called out members of his party on racial issues. Perhaps most notably, he听听President Trump for not taking a stronger stand against hatred and violence in the immediate aftermath of the 2017 Charlottesville rally.

But while he acknowledges he has been willing to speak out 鈥渨hen necessary,鈥� he has largely focused on helping minority communities advance and prosper through economic opportunity. Under President Trump, who included Senator Scott鈥檚 Opportunity Zones initiative in his 2017 tax cut bill, Black and Hispanic poverty rates听听before that progress was halted by the pandemic.听

鈥淩ace, or racism, is not a partisan issue,鈥� Senator Scott told the Monitor. 鈥淚t has to do with the depravity of man.鈥�

To be sure, Republicans of color acknowledge difficult chapters in American history and in their own lives.听Since entering the Senate in 2013, Senator Scott has been stopped numerous times in the Capitol by security who didn鈥檛 realize he was a lawmaker, as well as by police when driving. Ambassador Haley told the pastors of watching her Sikh father get humiliated at a produce stand as a girl, a memory that still pains her. But they say they nevertheless hold a positive vision of America that they believe speaks to voters of all backgrounds on the campaign trail.听

鈥淲e鈥檝e had horrific chapters in our nation鈥檚 history 鈥� but we are unique,鈥� says Attorney General Miyares. He encourages voters to celebrate the second chances America has given to people from all backgrounds, races, and faiths over the course of its history 鈥� including his mother, who fled communist Cuba in 1965. 鈥淭hat resonates.鈥澨�

(Editor鈥檚 note: This story was updated to correct the amount of funds Ms. Wheeless received from Rep. Stefanik鈥檚 super PAC and clarify her Mexican heritage.)