海角大神

Who can win in 2020? Voters shift focus toward centrists.

As the New Hampshire primary draws closer, and average voters start coming out to hear the presidential candidates in person, there鈥檚 a common refrain at Democratic events: We want someone who can beat President Donald Trump 鈥� and not just in coastal states like ours.聽聽

Even some avowed progressives are expressing concern that, as much as they love Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren鈥檚 calls for systemic change, programs like 鈥淢edicare for All鈥� might be more than fellow voters across the nation can swallow, especially in the heartland.

That may explain an uptick of interest in Midwestern candidates like South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, as well as the last-minute entry of former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and the possible bid by a centrist like Michael Bloomberg. Despite the unusually large Democratic field, what鈥檚 emerging is a deepening sense that beating Mr. Trump will be no cakewalk.

A recent New York Times poll聽indicated that among the front-runners, only former Vice President Joe Biden in a majority of Midwestern battleground states 鈥� and only barely.

鈥淲e need to build a blue wall around those states ... and make Donald Trump pay for it,鈥� Senator Klobuchar told a theater full of voters in Rochester, New Hampshire, so packed at lunchtime on a weekday that more than a few people had to stand. To do that, she emphasized, the nominee must reach out not only to Midwestern Democrats but also to independents and 鈥淩epublicans of conscience.鈥�

That message has won the support of Patrick Quinn, a Republican who credits President Trump鈥檚 tax cut with dramatically improving his income as a travel nurse but calls the president himself 鈥渧ile.鈥�

鈥淔or the first time ever, I started looking at Democratic candidates,鈥� says Mr. Quinn, who paid $45 for a ticket to a recent Democratic gala in southern New Hampshire headlined by Senator Klobuchar. By the end of the night, he was sold on her 鈥� despite his friends鈥� reactions on Facebook. 鈥淚鈥檓 happy to donate to her campaign, support her in any way that I can.鈥�

In particular, Mr. Quinn, who still plans to vote for Republicans in every race other than the presidential contest, says he鈥檚 impressed with the Minnesota senator鈥檚 bipartisan record. She has passed聽聽as the lead Democrat and was the primary sponsor of聽, compared with a handful for senators like Bernie Sanders and Ms. Warren.

That no doubt contributed to her winning 42 counties in 2018 that had gone for Mr. Trump just two years prior. And what about in a face-off? A recent poll shows her beating the president聽 in the state.

鈥淣ot flyover country to me鈥�

鈥淭he heartland is not flyover country to me,鈥� Ms. Klobuchar told a packed audience at a retirement community in Exeter, New Hampshire, earlier that day. Demonstrating how she would spar with Mr. Trump on a debate stage, she added, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think about these farmers and workers in the middle of the country as poker chips in a bankrupt casino like you do, as you bankrupt the country 鈥� they are my neighbors and friends.鈥�

The go-to candidate for centrist voters all along has been Mr. Biden, a Roman Catholic who comes from a blue-collar family in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and is seen as having a more natural appeal to some of the white working-class voters who ditched the Democrats for Mr. Trump in 2016.

When he arrives at the New Hampshire capitol to officially file his papers for the Feb. 11 primary, the narrow hallways are packed with firefighters and other supporters chanting his name. 鈥淛-O-E for 6-0-3,鈥� they yell, referring to the state鈥檚 area code. As the former vice president walks with his wife past gilded portraits depicting New Hampshire statesmen, young staffers beat on upside-down plastic buckets hastily painted the day before, leaving a trail of blue paint chips behind them.

Outside, a modest crowd assembles in the frigid weather, awaiting Mr. Biden鈥檚 exit. They include voters who have just put the schedule of candidate visits on their fridge and are coming out for the first time, as well as people like John Keenan, who saw the crowd and stopped to see what it was about.

鈥淚鈥檓 more worried about [finding] the candidate that can beat Donald Trump than policy,鈥� says Mr. Keenan, who was shopping with his daughter to replace her pink Converse low-tops. He says he likes Mr. Biden but also Mr. Buttigieg and Senator Warren 鈥� and adds that he knows it will take someone really strong to beat the president. 鈥淲hen [Mr. Biden] is under the gun, he鈥檚 not as quick as he could be.鈥�

Others dismiss the idea that Mr. Biden is too old or should pass the baton to a new generation, noting that he would be able to enter the White House on Day One knowing how to run it, and could leverage his many relationships with world leaders to repair America鈥檚 alliances.

鈥淲hat better way to pass the baton than to right the ship and then pass it on to the next generation?鈥� says Chris, a New Hampshire voter who didn鈥檛 want to give his last name because he is a federal employee.

鈥淭he character of our nation is on the ballot,鈥� Mr. Biden said when he took to the stage before a modest crowd that had braved snow squalls on a frigid Friday afternoon. He indirectly addressed the president鈥檚 criticism around his and his son鈥檚 involvement in Ukraine. 鈥淚鈥檝e learned two things the last several weeks: One is that Vladimir Putin doesn鈥檛 want me to be president,鈥� he says. The other 鈥� 鈥渢hat Donald Trump doesn鈥檛 want me to be the nominee.鈥�

鈥淗e鈥檚 scared of you!鈥� shouts one woman amid more drumming and cheers.

In a five-minute speech, Mr. Biden presents himself as the only one who can bring the country together and make progress on key issues like health care, while still respecting Americans鈥� freedom to choose for themselves.

Mr. Biden is the only candidate who has a chance of beating Mr. Trump,聽says Dianetta Gilmore of Brooklyn, New York, when he finishes, pushing a cart of Biden buttons toward a line of protesters on the sidewalk with Medicare for All signs. Button sales haven鈥檛 been good today, though. 鈥淚 tell you what,鈥� she says, 鈥淪anders and Warren are bringing them out in bigger numbers, and that鈥檚 not good.鈥澛�

Not an either/or choice?

Indeed, there has been tension throughout the campaign season over whether a crusader promising sweeping overhaul,聽like Ms. Warren or Mr. Sanders,聽is what鈥檚 needed to energize Democrats and get them to the polls in larger numbers. While some back that theory, others argue that it would be better to find a moderate candidate who can woo back former Obama supporters who went for Mr. Trump, win over disaffected Republicans, and help the country heal.

Mr. Buttigieg, the 38-year-old gay Harvard grad and Navy reservist, tells voters they don鈥檛 have to settle for one or the other.

鈥淒on鈥檛 let anybody tell you that we鈥檙e going to have to choose 鈥� either solve the problems, or everyone is going to be united but we can鈥檛 get anything done. That鈥檚 not an acceptable choice,鈥� he said, adding that the nation needs a president 鈥渨ho can stand on the rubble of what has been busted in our society and in our politics, pick up the pieces, implement bold solutions to get something done about those issues, and find a way to do it that鈥檚 actually going to unify the American people.鈥�

Mr. Buttigieg has been raking in contributions lately, even as Mr. Biden鈥檚聽fundraising machine has sputtered amid apparent donor worries about the staying power of his candidacy. The South Bend mayor now has more offices than any other campaign in New Hampshire, and has nearly doubled his staff since the summer, according to his campaign.

One voter from Boston, a 2016 delegate for Mr. Sanders who didn鈥檛 want to be identified because his clients come from across the political spectrum, says he likes Senator Warren鈥檚 policies but that recent polls have started to change his thinking. 鈥淸Mr. Buttigieg] might be the candidate that strikes the right balance [of] being inspiring without triggering fear of change,鈥� he says. In particular, he鈥檚 concerned about the backlash Medicare for All could create, citing challenges with the Affordable Care Act鈥檚 rollout. 鈥淚f you force that big a change ... you will upset a lot of people and eventually energize a lot of Republican voters in 2022 or 2024.鈥�