海角大神

Brett Kavanaugh, Susan Collins, and what Maine women think

Sen. Susan Collins has long seemed unbeatable.听

Despite being a Republican in a state that leans slightly Democratic,聽she has handily won every reelection since her entry to the Senate in 1996. During her most recent race in 2014, Senator Collins won every county in Maine聽by at least 24 percentage points. She鈥檚 frequently named the most bipartisan聽senator, and has long been a political icon in her state.

But her political position has changed. Senator Collins has gone from the country鈥檚 second-most popular senator, to in 2019, right behind Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. The Cook Political Report from 鈥渓ean Republican鈥� to 鈥渢oss-up鈥� in August.听

In the age of President Donald Trump and the increasing political polarization of the Republican and Democratic parties, the national space for moderates like Senator Collins has shrunk. Senator Collins seemed to be one of the last leaders in Washington standing on a centrist island between the two parties, and Maine voters, who prize themselves on independent thinking, loved her for that. But in 2020, there may no longer be enough land on the island for Senator Collins to stand.听

鈥淚 was always really proud of the idea that I could vote for two Republican women,鈥� says Emily Qualey, a Democrat from Portland, Maine, referring to Senator Collins and former Sen. Olympia Snowe. Ms. Qualey, who says she has voted for Senator Collins since she turned 18, traveled to Washington on an overnight bus in October in hopes of meeting with Senator Collins about Judge Brett Kavanaugh. Since his confirmation to the U.S. Supreme Court she has been active in a group raising funds for Senator Collins鈥� Democratic opponent in 2020.

No longer can she vote for a GOP Senate candidate, she says. Among the reasons: the partisan split on 鈥淢e Too鈥� and women鈥檚 stories of sexual harassment.

鈥淲e are in such an incredible time when voices are being heard who haven鈥檛 been,鈥� says Ms. Qualey. 鈥淪enator Collins should be using her experience to make the kind of difference the world needs right now.鈥�

The election is still more than a year away, and Senator Collins hasn鈥檛 announced that she is running. But if she does run, the 2020 race 鈥� projected to be the 鈥� is shaping up to be her toughest yet. Senator Collins鈥� seat is to Democrats鈥� efforts to regain the Senate, and she will be on the Republican ticket with President Trump in a state that some pundits consider a swing state. At least four Democrats have announced challenges 鈥� challenges that, in past years, they might have considered futile.

鈥淲hen you鈥檙e a thoughtful moderate, it鈥檚 rare that 100% of the people are going to agree with you 100% of the time,鈥� says Kevin Kelley, a Collins campaign spokesman. 鈥淏ut what Mainers appreciate about Senator Collins is that even when they may not agree with her decision, they know that she took the time to study the facts, and votes with integrity.鈥�

Flame of frustration

Voters that aren鈥檛 registered as Democrats or Republicans are the largest voting bloc in Maine, and much of Senator Collins鈥� past success as a Republican has hinged on attracting these independents, as well as moderate Democrats. But after at least two dozen interviews with female Democrats and independent voters across Maine, it鈥檚 clear that the senator would face unprecedented headwinds to maintain her seat. While they say they鈥檝e always voted for Senator Collins in the past, these interviewees say 2020 might be the first election they choose not to support the four-term incumbent.听

鈥淚鈥檒l have to think really hard if I鈥檓 going to vote for her again,鈥� says Cheryl Clukey while soaking up the last of the summer sun with her friend along the Kennebec River in Hallowell. 鈥淚鈥檓 really disappointed. And you鈥檒l hear that鈥檚 what the tenor is around here.鈥澛�

They say a small flame of frustration with Senator Collins has been burning over the past few years. Some accuse her of a shrinking schedule of town halls and local events. Others say they鈥檝e written the senator too many unanswered letters or left too many unanswered voicemails. A few pin it to particular events such as her vote to confirm former U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions, or her vote for .听

But one event in particular, they say, fanned the flame into a fire.

鈥淜avanaugh was the straw that broke the camel鈥檚 back,鈥� says Ms. Clukey.

Almost one year after Senator Collins cast the deciding vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh, her vote has remained fixed in Vacationland鈥檚 collective consciousness. In a political climate where a typical news story lingers for , and during a presidential administration that has almost weekly crises, it鈥檚 somewhat surprising that Mainers鈥� resentment over Justice Kavanaugh has persisted one year later.听

It could be because resentment over Justice Kavanaugh has persisted nationally, too. Just this Sunday, Democratic presidential candidates Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Kamala Harris, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and former housing secretary Julian Castro called for Justice Kavanaugh鈥檚 impeachment, from an upcoming book by two New York Times reporters who investigated allegations of sexual misconduct against the justice as a college student.听

鈥淟ike the man who appointed him, Kavanaugh should be impeached,鈥� .

But female moderates say Senator Collins鈥� vote on Justice Kavanaugh has stuck with them not only because of its definitive nature, but also because it so clearly went against what they wanted as constituents and against what she has represented as a leader.听

Senator Collins has branded herself as a vocal pro-choice Republican woman and fair representative, calling balls and strikes as she sees them 鈥� not how party lines dictate. So they say it feels contradictory for her to endorse a man who has acknowledged that the Supreme Court , and been confronted with several allegations of sexual misconduct himself.

鈥淚t鈥檚 like if the lady who wrote the book on etiquette went to dinner and didn鈥檛 use a napkin,鈥� says Amy Dyer, assistant manager of Frosty鈥檚 doughnuts in Gardiner. Ms. Dyer interrupts herself to tell a customer that, unfortunately, Frosty鈥檚 has run out of their popular Boston cremes, before adding: 鈥淲e were shocked.鈥澛�

Senator Collins鈥� vote was surprising, say many women, because they have seen the senator make tough calls in the past and they were optimistic that she would do so again. Mainers point to her leadership in ending the 2014 government shutdown, her votes against the confirmation of Department of Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, the GOP repeal of the Affordable Care Act, and the military鈥檚 ban on openly LGBTQ people, or her vocal decision not to vote for President Trump, as evidence that she might once again challenge today鈥檚 partisanship.

鈥淚 was holding onto a glimmer of hope that [Senator Collins] was going to surprise us all by putting herself on the line, for the benefit of the many,鈥� says Ms. Qualey.

鈥淚鈥檓 an optimist and I鈥檝e seen Collins support women,鈥� says Pam Maus, a documentary filmmaker who lives in Owls Head, and says she has voted for Senator Collins in the past. 鈥淟eading up to 2016 she came out with her disdain for Trump and I was encouraged. I was like, 鈥楾his is the Susan Collins I know.鈥欌�澛�

But like Ms. Qualey and Ms. Clukey, Ms. Maus says the vote for Justice Kavanaugh was 鈥渢he last straw.鈥� Ms. Maus has since done some canvassing for the Democratic Party, and says she鈥檚 heard from dozens of Mainers who have supported Senator Collins in the past, but plan on voting for her opponent in 2020.听

Less patience for a moderate leader

Ahead of her vote last Oct. 6, Senator Collins gave a nearly hour-long speech, announcing that she would vote to confirm Justice Kavanaugh despite her 鈥渞eservations.鈥� As a judge, Justice Kavanaugh has respected legal precedent in regards to two Supreme Court cases that legalized abortion, she explained. And although Christine Blasey Ford鈥檚 testimony was 鈥渟incere, painful, and compelling,鈥� the lack of corroborating evidence raised questions.

It鈥檚 likely that Senator Collins would be criticized whichever way she voted on Justice Kavanaugh. It鈥檚 also likely that Sen. Collins, who wields considerable power in a divided Senate, was going to be criticized for difficult decisions in today鈥檚 Washington even without the confirmation of a contentious Supreme Court justice.听

Now, as Maine Democrats and independents feel increasingly scared and angry under the Trump administration, they may have less patience for a moderate leader. In their eyes her brand of moderation is abetting presidential extremism. 聽

鈥淭o us, she is out of step with what we want. We want a leader who speaks out.鈥� says Marie Follayttar, director of the political action committee Mainers for Accountable Leadership, from a coffee shop in Portland.听

Following Justice Kavanaugh鈥檚 nomination by President Trump last year, Ms. Follayttar helped organize protest rallies around the state. She also collected at least 3,000 handwritten notes from Mainers pleading with the senator to vote against Justice Kavanaugh, many of which she has posted on the Facebook page, 鈥�.鈥� Many of the women, including Ms. Follayttar, included their own stories of sexual assault. They also debuted a video, 鈥淪enator Collins: Be a Hero,鈥� in which female Mainers pledged to unseat her if she voted in favor of Justice Kavanaugh.听

To date, Mainers for Accountable Leadership and other local groups have raised more than $4 million in donations for whoever wins the Democratic primary to challenge Senator Collins next November.听

Many Maine women, including Ms. Follayttar, say it鈥檚 not just the fact that Senator Collins voted for Justice Kavanaugh. Their frustration, anger, and disappointment also stem from how she went about it. They say she didn鈥檛 take the time to hear from voters, like their other senator, Angus King, did. They say they found her speech on the Senate floor dismissive and patronizing.听

鈥淎t many points there were opportunities for her to be a better leader,鈥� says Ms. Follayttar. 鈥淚 would have been disappointed in her regardless. ... But would the reaction have been so visceral? I don鈥檛 know.鈥澛�

Mark Brewer, a political science professor at the University of Maine in Orono, says the race will likely be a tough one. After all, Senator Collins is still a four-term incumbent with substantial campaign funds already on hand, backed by a national party that sees her seat as pivotal to keeping control of the Senate. And Maine Republicans who may have been frustrated with the senator鈥檚 centrism before Justice Kavanaugh鈥檚 confirmation, adds Mr. Brewer, have likely solidified their support just as Democrats have solidified opposition. He says the race will likely come down to independents 鈥� the majority of Maine鈥檚 voting bloc.

鈥淪he has a tough race on her hands,鈥� says Mr. Brewer. 鈥淭he question I think the senator is asking, and potential democratic challengers are asking, is what percentage of those unenrolled independent voters, who say they have voted for Collins in the past, how many of them will really turn away from her and vote for her opponent in 2020?鈥�

鈥淚 actually feel bad for her鈥�

In front of a small, standing-room only crowd in Bangor, Betsy Sweet twists a fake knife into her stomach.

鈥淲hen Susan Collins voted for Kavanaugh, it felt like this,鈥� says Ms. Sweet, as the crowd nods in agreement. A longtime progressive activist in Maine who most recently ran in the Democratic primary for governor in 2018, Ms. Sweet is running for the Democratic nomination to unseat Senator Collins.听

鈥淚t was clear she has become the senator of Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump, not the senator of Maine,鈥� says Ms. Sweet, as a few men in the back of the small storefront let out a whoop. 鈥淭he path to beat Susan Collins next year is narrow, but it鈥檚 possible.鈥澛�

At least three other Democrats besides Ms. Sweet have announced campaigns for the Senate seat, including the presumed favorite, Speaker of the Maine House of Representatives Sara Gideon. Ms. Gideon has already such as Emily鈥檚 List, NARAL Pro-Choice America, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.听

The Collins campaign says that Democratic challengers in the past have pushed the notion that women were set to abandon her. Opponents in 2008 and 2014 ran television ads in which female Maine voters said that in the upcoming election they would turn their back on Susan Collins. Both times the senator handily won reelection.听鈥淚f you have watched the videos, you see that this is a pattern,鈥� says Mr. Kelley.

A gave Senator Collins a 14-point lead over Ms. Gideon. It鈥檚 a considerable lead, but also considerably less than Senator Collins鈥� final tally in the 2014 race, which she .听

鈥淚 actually feel bad for her,鈥� says Ms. Maus. 鈥淚 think she鈥檚 in over her head in toeing the Republican line. She used to be respected for being a moderate and now she doesn鈥檛 know how to maneuver.鈥澛�

This story has been updated to better characterize some of those interviewed.