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In Tennessee Senate race, a clear test of centrism vs. ideology

To watch Democratic Senate candidate Phil Bredesen deliver a stump speech before a lunchtime Tennessee crowd, is to wonder whether one is looking at a future where US senators rediscover congeniality and bipartisanship 鈥� or at the past, at a throwback politician who is out of step with today鈥檚 take-no-prisoners, tribal approach to governing.

This grandfatherly figure could legitimately be called 鈥渙ld school,鈥� and that鈥檚 the point. In this competitive contest in a red state, Democrats have in Mr. Bredesen a self-made health care executive who went on to become a respected politician with a history of coalition building 鈥� first as mayor of Nashville, and then as a popular two-term governor. He鈥檚 running against Rep. Marsha Blackburn, a Republican firebrand who totes a pistol in her purse and has attached herself to President Trump like Velcro.

It is the clearest test of centrism vs. ideology among the competitive Senate races, say analysts.

Certainly, that鈥檚 how Bredesen is framing his message, in a state Democrats hope to flip. Sure, he talks about issues like health care, but you won鈥檛 find an 鈥渋ssues鈥� tab on his campaign website. For him, it鈥檚 all about governing style.

Voters have 鈥渁 very clear choice between two very different styles and very different ideas about what governing is about,鈥� Bredesen told enthusiastic supporters at a live-music restaurant in Nashville on the first day of early voting in October. The country has settled into a type of governing that鈥檚 all about drawing lines in the sand, he said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a terrible place for America to be.鈥�

Landmark legislation like Social Security, Medicare, and the Civil Rights Act showed that the parties can鈥檛 solve big problems without working together, says Bredesen, looking formal in a dark suit and tie, but sounding folksy nonetheless. 鈥淚 very much want our country to get back to that鈥� 鈥� to the days when lawmakers argued in the halls of Congress, but then 鈥渨ent out to dinner or something and kind of talked things through.鈥�

By any logical measure, Republicans ought to have this seat in the bag. While Democrats run Tennessee鈥檚 big cities, the GOP controls the governorship and holds supermajorities in both houses of the state legislature. Two years ago, Mr. Trump won Tennessee by 26 points.

鈥淭he state鈥檚 changed. It鈥檚 much more conservative and much more Republican than it was several decades ago,鈥� says Tom Ingram, a GOP consultant in Tennessee.

Yet the independent Cook Political Report rates this seat a 鈥渢oss-up鈥� 鈥� and a big reason is Bredesen鈥檚 broad appeal and familiarity. He is reminiscent of the statesmanlike politicians that have traditionally been elected in Tennessee, says Mr. Ingram.听

Those include former Republican Senate majority leader Howard Baker 鈥� who was a partisan, but hammered out the Clean Air Act with Maine Democrat Ed Muskie; 鈥渘ew Democrat鈥� Al Gore, who became vice president to Bill Clinton; and today鈥檚 GOP senators, Lamar Alexander, known for his bipartisanship, and the retiring Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. (Ingram oversaw both of their campaigns, and was Senator Alexander鈥檚 chief of staff.)

Senator Corker has been an outspoken Trump critic, and at a听Monitor breakfast听in April he praised at length the Democrat running to succeed him. Though he donated the maximum allowable to Blackburn, he said he would not campaign against Bredesen.

Indeed, Corker and Bredesen are longtime friends and collaborators, together bringing the Titans football team and Volkswagen to the state. As governor, Bredesen established his fiscal bona fides with Republicans with cuts to the state鈥檚 troubled Medicaid program, known as TennCare. More recently, he announced he would have voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, deeply disappointing many Democrats.

Bredesen鈥檚 is a 鈥渓ess partisan, gentler-messaged鈥� campaign, Ingram says, from a well-liked politician who once won every county in the state. Ingram believes a significant number of Republicans will cross over to the Democrat. He describes Blackburn鈥檚 campaign as a more 鈥減olarized presentation鈥� of a conservative who is close to Trump and working to become better known outside her district.

Or as Bredesen puts it, 鈥淚鈥檓 running against someone who has that very hard-nosed, partisan view. It is all about supporting President Trump, doing exactly what he wants. You know: Republicans are good, Democrats are bad 鈥� 鈥楧emoncrats鈥� as she likes to call them.鈥� He concludes: 鈥淚f that鈥檚 what you鈥檙e looking for, I鈥檓 not your guy.鈥�

He highlights his bipartisan record in revitalizing Nashville with a sports arena, professional teams, and a new library system, and getting the state out of the Great Recession with balanced budgets, outside auto investors, and statewide pre-K.

A 鈥榩olicy bludgeon鈥�

After a recent breakfast with supporters at Jenkins Restaurant in the southeastern town of Cleveland, Blackburn sits down for an interview about today鈥檚 partisan divisiveness, women lawmakers, and fixing a broken Senate 鈥� one of her campaign goals.

Congressional Quarterly describes this former door-to-door bookseller as a 鈥減olicy bludgeon.鈥� She鈥檚 a hard charger on issues like gun rights and tax cuts (as a state senator, she led a successful crusade against a state income tax). She鈥檚 a staunch member of the Pro-Life Caucus,听chairing a select House panel to investigate allegations of illicit trade in fetal tissue by the 鈥渁bortion industry.鈥� Democrats opposed the panel. She also cosponsored the controversial 鈥渂irther鈥� bill borne out of now-discredited attacks on former President Barack Obama鈥檚 qualifications to hold office.

鈥淚鈥檓 a hard-core, card-carrying conservative. I鈥檓 politically incorrect and proud of it,鈥� Blackburn announced when she decided last year to run for Corker鈥檚 Senate seat. She鈥檚 a reliable GOP vote on a host of other issues, including Obamacare repeal.听

And yet, the congressman (she prefers that to congresswoman) says she is 鈥渞ecognized as a bipartisan leader鈥� in the House, where she has represented her central Tennessee district for 16 years and chairs the subcommittee on Communications and Technology.

She ticks off a series of bipartisan bills, from reauthorizing the Federal Communications Commission to legislation she co-sponsored with Rep. Joe Kennedy (D) of Massachusetts that made certain hearing aids available over the counter. She鈥檚 also a lead sponsor of a bipartisan bill to make broadcasters pay artists and record labels whenever their songs are played on the radio 鈥� a natural stance, given she lives just outside Nashville (鈥淢usic City鈥�), played piano for her church when she was growing up, and is a staunch defender of intellectual property.

As a woman senator, she says she would bring a 鈥渃ollaborative鈥� style and looks forward to taking part in the informal, bipartisan women鈥檚 dinners hosted by Sen. Susan Collins (R) of Maine and Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) of California. She finds today鈥檚 political divisiveness 鈥渞eally troubling.鈥�

Still, Blackburn is running her statewide campaign for Senate as if she were running for her safe district in the House, Ingram says.

Indeed, that is how her campaign pitch plays out to a clutch of early-morning supporters.听Though Bredesen says he won鈥檛 back minority leader Chuck Schumer of New York if elected, Blackburn pastes him to the Democratic leader, saying 鈥渉is very first vote would be for Chuck Schumer.鈥�

One by one, she goes through the dangers of a Senate led by the New Yorker. Standing next to a big, red 鈥淪top Schumer鈥� sign, she tells her listeners to forget conservative judges and justices like Brett Kavanaugh if Senator Feinstein gets the Judiciary Committee听gavel; 鈥測ou get a tax increase鈥� if Elizabeth Warren takes over the Finance Committee; and Bernie Sanders would head the Budget Committee. 鈥淎 vote for Phil Bredesen is a vote for every one of them. Every one.鈥�

And then there's the border. Tennesseans 鈥渨ant somebody who is going to support building a wall,鈥� to which one supporter, Annie Campbell, gives an emphatic 鈥渦h-huh.鈥�

Ms. Campbell, an X-ray technician, exclaims, 鈥淪he鈥檚 terrific!鈥� after Blackburn is done. Campbell has seen Blackburn many times on television where she delivers pointed soundbites as a frequent guest on Fox News. 鈥淪he鈥檚 common sense. Kind of fearless, and speaks her mind. She means what she says,鈥� Campbell concludes. The most important thing: Blackburn backs Trump. 鈥淚鈥檝e been a fan of his for years.鈥�

And Phil Bredesen? 鈥淭hat was then, this is now.鈥�

Indeed, Republicans cast him not only as a dangerous liberal, but as a relic.

鈥淗e鈥檚 a professional football player, running onto the field in a leather helmet,鈥� says Michael Sullivan, the executive director of the state GOP. 鈥淗e鈥檚 going to get a concussion.鈥� Today鈥檚 Senate is not like yesterday鈥檚, says Mr. Sullivan, pointing, for instance, to a public able to follow closely what a lawmaker is doing. If听Bredesen wants to craft back-room legislation out of the spotlight, he is 鈥渓iving in yesteryear.鈥�

When asked about how to fix the dysfunctional and deeply divided Senate, Sullivan says part of the answer is to elect more Republicans to stop Democratic obstruction. Blackburn adds that 鈥渢he people鈥� have a faster schedule than the Senate鈥檚. To hasten the president鈥檚 鈥渂old鈥� agenda, she wants to get rid of the 60-vote threshold for all budget issues 鈥� a big leap that would deprive the minority party of a lot of leverage.

The Senate鈥檚 slow pace is a typical complaint of members of the House, where a simple majority rules the day. But the solution is not to make the deliberative Senate more like the House, says Ingram, the GOP consultant. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think anyone would suggest the House is fixed. I think it would take a significantly different approach in style and tone to fix the Senate.鈥�

The Swift factor

On a recent weeknight, every seat is taken at the cozy Bluebird Cafe, a live-music venue in Nashville where the 鈥淪hhh policy鈥� has everyone listening attentively to up-and-coming songwriters. On this evening, four talented young musicians take turns on their acoustic guitars and keyboards, explaining the story behind the song before pouring out their heartache or joy.

After the performance, they mix with fans, and two of them answer a reporter鈥檚 questions about a music industry bombshell: Grammy-award winner Taylor Swift breaking her political silence to endorse Bredesen over Blackburn on Instagram. Ms. Swift favors Bredesen because of her concern over LGBTQ rights and racial equality, and she urged her 112 million followers 鈥� especially those who have turned 18 since the last election 鈥� to register and vote their own values.

鈥淚t鈥檚 risky, because by saying who she鈥檚 voting for, she absolutely could offend the entire other audience,鈥� says Mae Estes, one of the performers. But Ms. Estes praises the pop star for understanding her 鈥減ower鈥� and using it wisely, leaving open the door for people to vote as they see fit. 鈥淚t brought a lot of people out to vote that typically wouldn鈥檛.鈥� In Nashville, she adds, 鈥渋t鈥檚 becoming the cool thing to do.鈥�

Like all close races in the country, this one will ultimately hinge on which candidate gets more of their supporters to the polls. Blackburn has Trump on her side, ginning up the base with two rallies on her behalf. He will hold a third on Sunday. Bredesen鈥檚 ace is Swift, who sent out another Instagram message on Tuesday, picturing her and her mom in front of a giant Bredesen sign, after they voted for the 鈥渞easonable and trustworthy鈥� candidate.

For Democrats who were concerned that Bredesen鈥檚 backing of Kavanaugh had deflated voter enthusiasm on their side, Swift鈥檚听endorsement was like manna from heaven. Indeed, several Bredesen supporters casting early votes near downtown Nashville expressed disappointment in his stance on the Supreme Court justice.听

That includes Mackenzie Hammerstrom, a newly married voter who works in advertising. 鈥淢arsha Blackburn would be a terror. She does not support women's rights,鈥� says Ms. Hammerstrom. Bredesen, while disappointing on Kavanaugh, shares Hammerstrom鈥檚 values on gun control and health care. Hammerstrom called this a 鈥渃hange鈥� election and 鈥渓oved it鈥� that Swift went political听and came out for the former governor.

In the 24 hours after Swift鈥檚 first post, voter registration spiked by 65,000 nationwide, Vote.org鈥檚 director of communications told Buzzfeed. In Tennessee, registration spiked by 2,144 new voters. Meanwhile, early voting in the state has skyrocketed to historic levels for a midterm, surpassing 1.1 million voters through Tuesday, just below the pace of the 2016 presidential election.

It鈥檚 a similar story around the country 鈥� but particularly noteworthy in Tennessee, which ranked dead last in turnout in the 2014 midterms, says Katie Cahill, director of the Howard Baker Center for Public Policy at the University of Tennessee in Knoxville. The test for Blackburn is whether she can pull voters outside of her district, says Dr. Cahill, while the biggest unknown factor for Bredesen is young people 鈥� the largest potential voting bloc, but historically unreliable as voters.

In the picturesque town of Franklin in Blackburn鈥檚 congressional district, day two of early voting looked like Election Day. Cars searched for spaces in a full parking lot as voters streamed in and out of the municipal office building. More than one person cited Kavanaugh as their motivator.

鈥淚鈥檓 raring to vote,鈥� said William Morgan, who is in the construction business. 鈥淚 am so upset watching what the Democrats did to Judge-Justice Kavanaugh.鈥� Another voter voiced similar passion over the issue, adding that he voted early because he wanted to avoid the rush on Nov. 6.

The rush? In a midterm?

But that鈥檚 the way this election is shaping up, here in the Volunteer state and elsewhere.

Staff writer Bailey Bischoff contributed to this report.