海角大神

Hawaii鈥檚 Beth Fukumoto is quitting the GOP. Whose defection is it?

Once a rising star in Republican national politics, the Hawaii state representative was asked to resign as state House minority whip in February after criticizing President Trump at a Women's March rally. Now she's trying to join the Democrats.

A few years ago, a rattled Republican party was convinced it had to remake itself in the image of younger, ethnically diverse voters, and Beth Fukumoto, a representative in Hawaii鈥檚 House, emerged as a rising star in the party.

The state鈥檚 youngest-ever House minority leader 鈥� having ascended to the position before she鈥檇 hit 30 鈥� the Republican National Committee tapped Representative Fukumoto to help recruit female candidates. National media to the GOP鈥檚 diversity problem.

Too centrist, and too new-American, maybe.

On Wednesday, Ms. Fukumoto announced she would leave the Republican Party and seek to join the Democrats, citing complacency toward racism and sexism from GOP legislators 鈥� in addition to President Trump鈥檚 controversial remarks about women and minorities, which she previously denounced in a speech at a February Women鈥檚 March demonstration in Honolulu.

鈥淣o ethnic group in our state is a majority, and more than 70 percent of the population isn't white. But our Hawaii Republican Party leaders wanted us to adopt 鈥榤iddle American鈥� values instead of holding on to Republican principles that also reflect our own local values, such as responsible stewardship over things like wealth and power,鈥� , before going on to recall her Japanese-American grandparents鈥� internment during World War II.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe that I can make a difference in the Hawaii Republican Party,鈥� she said, adding that if she were to stay, 鈥淚 would simply become an obstructionist in a political party that doesn鈥檛 want to hear my voice or my message.鈥�

Historically, party defections aren't entirely unusual, but Fukumoto's appears to mark the first from Republicans during the Trump era. And given a trend toward polarization that political scientists say is likely to make an already rare move rarer, it turns a spotlight onto who, exactly, has drifted away from whom.

Party defections happen for various reasons, says William Heller, a Binghamton University professor who has studied the phenomenon in other countries.

鈥淢ost legislators will point to their party shifting away and use that to justify what they鈥檙e doing, whether it鈥檚 true or not,鈥� he tells 海角大神. 鈥淭he most basic reason to switch is, you think you鈥檙e more likely to hold onto your seat if you鈥檙e in a different party.鈥�

In certain multi-party systems, for instance, some legislators leave for similar parties with less rigid rules about voting the party line. But leaps across the ideological gap between left and right, to the extent one exists, is much rarer. Sometimes, as in Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords鈥� 2001 departure from the GOP, it鈥檚 because a nationally prominent member feels out of sync with other members on key issues.聽

In some cases, notes M.V. Hood, a University of Georgia political scientist, political party defections reflect a broader, more meaningful shift in a party鈥檚 direction, like when conservative Democrats began a post-civil rights era exodus from the party in the South.聽

Back then, Dr. Hood tells the Monitor, newly "Republicanized" legislators tended not to go through the usual agonizing over how to preserve credibility among the people who elected them.

鈥淎mong Southerners, it wasn鈥檛 an ideological switch, so they didn鈥檛 have to pretend to be something they weren鈥檛,鈥� he says. 鈥淪ocially, economically even, these individuals lined up closer to being Republicans.鈥�

But defections can also be major swings in direction. When it鈥檚 time to cast final-passage votes on legislation, , party-switchers might not swing dramatically toward their new party鈥檚 extreme, since they have a reputation to protect among voters. But on procedural and amendment votes, which are often highly partisan and highly consequential for a bill鈥檚 shape and chances of passing, political converts are often zealous ones.

For Fukumoto, who says she made her decision after seeking constituents鈥� input, the GOP鈥檚 rightward turn on cultural questions might have indeed left her in the lurch. But in a profoundly ethnically diverse state that turned deep blue during the Obama years, of Republicans seeking to join their ranks.

That might mean her past votes against same-sex marriage bills, for instance 鈥� which she says reflected the will of her constituents rather than her own beliefs 鈥� could force her to make a go of it as an independent, rather than a Democrat.

What鈥檚 clear, says American University political scientist David Lublin, is that leaving the GOP wouldn鈥檛 put a damper on any national ambition.

鈥淒ivisions in the Hawaiian legislature will not be along particularly partisan lines. It鈥檒l be poor versus rich areas, or outlying islands and the centers, or who鈥檚 friends with the Speaker and who鈥檚 not,鈥� he tells the Monitor.

鈥淭here鈥檚 no future on a national scale for Republicans in Hawaii,鈥� he adds. 鈥淶ero.鈥�