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Once again, Marco Rubio鈥檚 future is tied to Donald Trump

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's decision to run for reelection boosts the Republicans' chances of holding onto the Senate. But Senator Rubio is not a shoo-in.

Marco Rubio never intended to run for reelection to his Florida Senate seat. He was going to be the Republican nominee for president, and then win the White House, making history as the first Latino president of the United States.

Then Donald Trump happened 鈥� and 鈥渓ittle Marco鈥� and a humiliating loss in the Florida primary, where Mr. Trump beat Senator Rubio, 46 percent to 27 percent. Rubio dropped out that night.

Now, Florida鈥檚 first-term junior senator is running for reelection after all, he announced Wednesday. The Republicans are desperately trying to keep control of the Senate, and polls show Rubio鈥檚 seat is one of the party鈥檚 most vulnerable. GOP leaders have been urging him to run, despite his assurances that he wouldn鈥檛.

So in an ironic twist, Rubio will appear on the same ballot as Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee 鈥� and once again, Rubio鈥檚 political future is tied to the billionaire novice politician who dinged him up royally just a few months ago.

鈥淗e鈥檚 highly tagged to Donald Trump,鈥� says Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida in Tampa. 鈥淚f Trump does well, he does well. If Trump doesn鈥檛, he doesn鈥檛.鈥�

Trump 'worrisome to me'

And in an extraordinary acknowledgment of the challenge Rubio faces appearing on the same ballot as Trump, he took a slap at the billionaire in his announcement statement.

鈥淭he prospect of a Trump presidency is also worrisome to me,鈥� Rubio said. 鈥淚t is no secret that I have significant disagreements with Donald Trump. His positions on many key issues are still unknown. And some of his statements, especially about women and minorities, I find not just offensive but unacceptable.鈥�

Rubio added that, if Trump is elected, 鈥渨e will need senators willing to encourage him in the right direction, and if necessary, stand up to him. I鈥檝e proven a willingness to do both.鈥�

Rubio is set to win the Republican primary Aug. 30, as his major GOP opponents have dropped out or are poised to, but he faces a tough Democratic challenger in November 鈥� either Rep. Patrick Murphy or Rep. Alan Grayson.

鈥淚n the general, he鈥檚 going to have a lot of negatives against him,鈥� says Ms. MacManus.

Foremost, Rubio will have to fight the impression that he鈥檚 just another opportunistic politician whose word can鈥檛 be trusted. In the first sentence of his announcement statement, Rubio anticipated this critique. 鈥淚n politics,鈥� he wrote, 鈥渁dmitting you鈥檝e changed your mind is not something most people like to do.鈥�

He acknowledged frequently calling the Senate a 鈥渇rustrating place,鈥� then defended the Senate as a place from which one can 鈥減erform great services for the people you have the honor of representing.鈥�

A changing Florida electorate

Florida demographics could also prove challenging for Rubio. He has won the loyal support of Cuban-Americans like him, but the non-Cuban portion of Florida鈥檚 growing Hispanic population is on the rise 鈥� and Cuban-Americans themselves are less reliably Republican than they used to be.

Rubio can also expect a barrage of negative ads, highlighting Trump鈥檚 taunts of Rubio as 鈥渓ittle Marco鈥� and as a no-show senator more interested in running for president than in doing his job. Viewers may also be reminded that it was Rubio who descended to Trump-level rhetoric when he joked about Trump鈥檚 鈥渓ittle hands,鈥� which led to the most off-color debate moment in modern presidential history.

But ultimately, Trump鈥檚 performance in November will be the key to Rubio鈥檚 political future. Florida voters, like American voters as a whole, are increasingly voting straight party-line tickets. So Rubio could face a challenge winning Hispanic voters who are turned off by Trump鈥檚 anti-immigrant rhetoric and vote for Hillary Clinton for president. Ditto the Republicans who may not vote at all, because they can鈥檛 bring themselves to vote for Trump.

Rubio鈥檚 switch toward a reelection race also likely signals that he鈥檚 not finished with presidential politics. Given the pointed anti-Trump rhetoric in his announcement statement, it seems possible that a reelected Rubio would mount a primary challenge against a President Trump in 2020. Even more certain would be a challenge to a President Hillary Clinton.

Why not a run for governor?

Rubio could have taken another path. He could have run for governor of Florida in 2018, boosting his executive profile for another presidential run. But Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam has the inside track on the GOP nomination for governor. And even if Rubio could win the governorship in two years, he鈥檇 have to pivot immediately toward a presidential campaign 鈥� which would look particularly opportunistic.

The safer bet was for Rubio to plead guilty of changing his mind, and run for reelection to the Senate. His prospects are promising. A Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday shows Rubio ahead of Congressman Murphy 47-40 and ahead of Congressman Grayson 48-40. Rubio is the only Republican Senate candidate who beats either Democrat.

Still, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report kept the race in its 鈥渢ossup鈥� column.

Rubio 鈥渉as breathed new life into the GOP's chances of holding the seat, but that doesn't mean that he has become anything more than the very slightest of favorites in November,鈥� writes Jennifer Duffy, Cook鈥檚 Senate-watcher.

In the Senate, fellow Republicans were delighted by Rubio鈥檚 change of heart.

鈥淚t鈥檚 good for the home team,鈥� said Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, another presidential also-ran.

Senator Graham wasn鈥檛 troubled by Rubio鈥檚 flip-flop. 鈥淚t never looks bad to change your mind when you鈥檝e got a good reason,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t changes the electoral map. It鈥檚 all good.鈥�

Sen. Cory Gardner (R) of Colorado said that pretty much the entire Republican conference talked to Rubio about running 鈥� 鈥渋f not all, then 99 percent.鈥� He also referenced his own change of heart about running for the Senate two years ago 鈥� initially announcing he wouldn鈥檛 run, then changing gears.

Of course, Rubio鈥檚 position as a sitting senator, with several Republicans already running for what they thought was an open seat, is different from having a House member, as Senator Gardner was, jump in to take on a senator from the opposing party.

One of the Florida Republicans running for Rubio鈥檚 seat, Rep. David Jolly, dropped out recently to run for reelection to the House, a sign that he either knew or suspected Rubio was going to get in. Another Republican, Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera 鈥� a friend of Rubio鈥檚 鈥� dropped out of the race Wednesday after Rubio announced. Rubio had originally promised his friend he wouldn鈥檛 change his mind, but in recent days, reports appeared that the lieutenant governor had told Rubio he would step aside if Rubio ran, another sign that Rubio was running.

The other major Republican in the race, Rep. Ron DeSantis, has tea party backing 鈥� and was also reportedly set to drop out Wednesday and announce for his House seat.

'Fire in the belly'

Back on Capitol Hill, Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) of Tennessee might have had an inside track on Rubio鈥檚 thinking. The two work out in the gym every morning. Talking with reporters, Senator Alexander wouldn鈥檛 share what Rubio said this morning but he added: 聽

鈥淚 know that he was thinking this week about whether he had a fire in the belly.鈥�

The two had discussed that, Alexander said. 鈥淚 said a fire in the belly comes from a sense of purpose,鈥� he said. 鈥淪o obviously he feels like he has a sense of purpose.鈥�

Rubio was also concerned about his family having to go through another election just after a presidential race, Alexander said. 鈥淏ut my guess is the Orlando shooting may have had some effect on him, because I know that in 2002 I decided to run after 9/11. It made me stop and think about what could I contribute to our country and I suspect he鈥檚 thinking the same thing.鈥�

Staff writer Francine Kiefer contributed to this report.