海角大神

Is Obama the Democrats' Reagan?

Obama has found his voice on racial issues and is amassing a significant, if controversial, legacy. But don't call him transformative yet.

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鈥業 don鈥檛 want to present myself as some sort of singular figure,鈥� Barack Obama told the Reno Gazette-Journal in January 2008, right as primary season was kicking off.

It鈥檚 the times that are different, just as they were in 1980, the Illinois senator continued. And then across the political universe and incensed his top competitor for the Democratic presidential nomination.

鈥淚 think Ronald Reagan changed the trajectory of America in a way that, you know, Richard Nixon did not and in a way that Bill Clinton did not.鈥�

Then-Senator Obama was, in essence, offering himself up as the Democratic answer to President Reagan, someone who sensed Americans鈥� readiness for a new direction and then 鈥減ut us on a fundamentally different path,鈥� as Obama put it.

Now, 6-1/2 years into Obama鈥檚 presidency, the outlines of his legacy are clear: a major health reform that has added millions to insurance rolls, a recovering economy, Wall Street reform, a national right to same-sex marriage, diplomatic relations with Cuba, a nuclear deal with Iran, enhanced workers' rights, and aggressive new rules to combat climate change.

Add to that the rise of the Islamic State group and expanded use of drones to kill terror suspects overseas, two more legacy items that are less points of pride than challenges Obama will hand his successor.

Then there鈥檚 the racial turmoil of the past few years, and the national conversation it has sparked 鈥� a conversation that Obama, as the first black US president, has been uniquely positioned to participate in and often lead. That moment in June when he sang 鈥淎mazing Grace鈥� at the funeral of the Rev. Clementa Pinckney will go down as a transcendent moment in his presidency.

The idea, in early 2008, that Obama wasn鈥檛 offering himself as 鈥渁 singular figure鈥� now seems disingenuous, at least on racial matters. Almost by definition, the first African-American president is a transformative president.听

Yet Obama is also defying some of the paralyzing pitfalls of a second term 鈥� at least so far. As recently as a year ago, he was shunned by members of his own party going into the midterm elections. He was considered a radioactive presence on the campaign trail, and pundits were calling him one of the weakest presidents in the postwar era.

Now, suddenly, he鈥檚 cutting nuclear deals, ending decades of animosity with Caribbean communists, forging far-reaching trade pacts, and soothing the nation on the crucible of race.

While many people virulently oppose most of these initiatives, no one can accuse him of succumbing to lame-duck status. Even though Republicans control both houses of Congress, Obama has put them on the defensive, forcing them to try to muster veto-proof majorities and go to court to block his initiatives.

All of which raises the deeper question of whether Obama will go down in history as a transformational, Reaganesque leader who has changed the overall direction of the nation. For now, it might be premature to anoint him into the kingdom of Gipper-Dem.听

鈥淲ill Obama become the poster child of the Democratic left, the way Reagan has become the Republican poster child, especially for conservatives?鈥� says presidential historian Robert Dallek. 鈥淭hat might be the case. But it so depends on what comes next.鈥�

Just as Reagan was succeeded by a member of his own party 鈥� his vice president, George H.W. Bush, who continued his policies, albeit under the banner of 鈥渒inder and gentler鈥� 鈥� so, too, does the scope of Obama鈥檚 legacy depend on the election of a Democrat in 2016. Start with the fact that the next president is likely to nominate one or more Supreme Court justices.

Then comes Obama鈥檚 aggressive use of executive power. It has allowed him to defer deportation for some undocumented immigrants, enact sweeping new climate-change rules, and go bold on foreign policy. The downside, for Obama, is that the next president could undo his actions, though as then-senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer , 鈥渋n politics, it鈥檚 possible to deny people things. It鈥檚 almost impossible to take things away from them.鈥�

State-led court challenges, too, could thwart his immigration and climate-change initiatives.

In 2016, most important to Democrats鈥� prospects of holding onto the White House is the economy. Obama took office amid a full-blown economic crisis, passed the biggest stimulus bill in history, and has presided over a slow but steady recovery. Unemployment has been cut nearly in half 鈥� from 10 percent in late 2009 to 5.1 percent today. The stock market has roughly doubled under Obama, even with the recent drop. Economic growth has been middling, but at least it鈥檚 in positive territory.

How much credit Obama deserves is a matter of great debate. Conservatives say his policies have impeded the recovery, and they point with alarm to the federal government鈥檚 spiraling debt, now more than $18 trillion.

But for Obama and his team, winning a second term meant owning the bragging rights of an improved economy 鈥� and a chance to change the paradigm from the Reagan-era economic policies of less government and lower taxes.

鈥淲e have been battling that conception, and Democrats were forced to play on that field for a very long time,鈥� Mr. Pfeiffer said in December. 鈥淲e want to change the field.鈥�

In his State of the Union address last January, a liberated Obama 鈥� now past his last midterm election 鈥� declared that 鈥渢he shadow of crisis鈥� had passed and laid out a bold (and expensive) domestic agenda aimed at boosting the middle class. He called for free community college tuition, tax cuts for working families, guaranteed paid sick leave and maternity leave, and higher taxes on the wealthy and large financial institutions.

With Congress firmly in Republican hands for the rest of his presidency, Obama wasn鈥檛 laying out actionable proposals, he was being the anti-Reagan. He was 鈥渃hanging the field鈥� 鈥� and setting the stage for the 2016 presidential race.

鈥� 听 听 鈥� 听 听 鈥�

Imagine if candidate Obama听had praised Reagan in a debate with Sen. John McCain, Obama鈥檚 Republican opponent in 2008.

鈥淚 knew Ronald Reagan.... Senator, you鈥檙e no Ronald Reagan,鈥� Senator McCain could have said, echoing one of the all-time best debate put-downs in American history.

鈥淥bama as the Democrats鈥� Reagan鈥� didn鈥檛 become part of his campaign rhetoric. But soon after taking office in 2009, Obama came back to the theme of 鈥渢ransformative presidencies鈥� in a private dinner with historians. Reagan came up, as did the Roosevelts, Woodrow Wilson, and Harry Truman, according to a participant.

More recently, Obama invoked Reagan鈥檚 name when he took to the Rose Garden to tout the preliminary deal with Iran aimed at preventing the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

鈥淭he American people remember that at the height of the cold war, presidents like Nixon and Reagan struck historic arms-
听control agreements with the Soviet Union, a far more dangerous adversary,鈥�

Conservatives see red when the Obama-Reagan comparison comes up.

鈥淲hen a liberal invokes Ronald Reagan鈥檚 name to defend a specific policy, it is almost certain to be a policy Reagan would never have defended,鈥� writes Tom Nichols, a professor of national security affairs at the US Naval War College, in a column in .

Obama鈥檚 Iran deal isn鈥檛 analogous to Reagan鈥檚 Soviet deal, Professor Nichols argues, because the Soviet Union was enfeebled economically, and had given up its ideology, which Iran has not. And, he says, the verification regime the Soviets agreed to was substantially stricter than the Iran deal.

That analysis addresses a specific policy matter. But the larger question of whether Obama becomes the Democrats鈥� Reagan may take years, or even decades, to answer. Obama would have to embody what it means to be a Democrat and help define and shape Democratic politics for a generation, says Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 the extent of being the standard,鈥� says Professor Gillespie. 鈥淎nd I鈥檓 not sure, when people define the politics of this era, that Obama will stand out as the singular figurehead, in the way Republicans hold Reagan in that high regard.鈥�

One issue is how Obama positioned himself within the Democratic Party from the beginning. When he ran for president, he wasn鈥檛 a 鈥渕ovement鈥� candidate in the way Reagan was. Obama saw himself as 鈥渁n individual phenomenon, above partisan politics,鈥� says Robert Borosage, cofounder of the liberal group Campaign for America鈥檚 Future.

As president, Obama has balanced the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party, leading to criticism from the left that he hasn鈥檛 gone far enough. The party鈥檚 liberal standard-bearer is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) of Massachusetts. In the presidential race, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) of Vermont, a self-described social democrat, is the liberal darling.

But the favorite to win the Democratic nod is former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. She comes out of her husband鈥檚 centrist Democratic tradition but has tacked to the left in her second run for the presidency 鈥� a reflection of the times. Since 1992, the year Bill Clinton won the White House, the portion of Americans who self-identify as 鈥渓iberal鈥� has risen seven percentage points to a record 24 percent, .

If Mrs. Clinton wins the presidency on a 鈥減rogressive, inequality agenda, and makes the argument for public investment, then we鈥檒l see Obama as the beginning of a progressive era,鈥� says Mr. Borosage. 鈥淏ut if she tacks back to the center, we will know that we haven鈥檛 entered into a different world.鈥�

Here鈥檚 another test in the great Obama-versus-Reagan smack down: Has Obama created a majority coalition that elects other people? And has he created a language and a philosophy about government that represents a transformation from the conservative era?

In presidential election years, at least, Obama has forged a majority coalition. Just as Reagan pulled 海角大神 conservatives into Republican politics and turned working-class voters into Reagan Democrats, Obama has presided over the creation of the so-called rising American electorate 鈥� young voters, people of color, and single women. If they turn out in big enough numbers next year, they can elect a Democratic successor.

On the question of governing philosophy, Obama is on shakier ground. Reagan represented a sharp departure from New Deal-Great Society policies with his turn toward smaller government and lower taxes. Obama came in seeking to revitalize progressivism, but he also cast himself as a post-partisan leader and seemed determined, especially after Democrats lost control of the House, to cut deals with Republicans. Talk of entitlement reform, including cuts to benefits, frustrated liberals.

Reagan frustrated his own political base at times as well by raising taxes more than once and opting to address the annual antiabortion march by telephone, not in person. But conservatives knew on a fundamental level that he was with them.

鈥淚f you鈥檙e going to be a transformative president, you鈥檝e got to set a course and stay with it and convince Americans about it,鈥� says Borosage. 鈥淚f you鈥檙e twisting and turning, Americans get lost.鈥澨�

Reagan鈥檚 embrace of supply-side economics 鈥� lower taxes, smaller government 鈥� coupled with increased military spending came to be known as Reaganomics. Nobody today is talking about 鈥淥bamanomics鈥� for a reason.

Even on the stunning rise of public support for same-sex marriage in recent years, Obama wasn鈥檛 leading the crusade. He now speaks of gay marriage as a civil right, but announced his support only in 2012.

Obama is not alone as a president who 鈥渓ed from behind鈥� on a major social issue. President Wilson signed women鈥檚 suffrage into law, but wasn鈥檛 at the forefront of the movement. Ditto Presidents John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson on civil rights.

鈥淗istorically, very few presidents have been leaders on social issues,鈥� says Tom Cronin, a presidential scholar at Colorado College. 鈥淲e elect presidents and congresses that are slow to embrace change.鈥�

鈥� 听 听 鈥� 听 听 鈥⑻�

As soon as Obama won听reelection, the speculation began. Would the 鈥渟econd-term curse鈥� bite? Second terms, after all, are when scandals burst forth 鈥� Watergate, Iran-contra, Monica Lewinsky. The big, first-term initiatives have played out, and the four-year slide into lame-duckery kicks in.

The second half of this analysis is false. Scandals do hit in the second term (often from seeds planted in the first), but in the cases of Reagan and Clinton, they didn鈥檛 prevent second-term accomplishments. Reagan secured an arms-control treaty with the Soviet Union, immigration reform, and tax reform all in his second term. Clinton signed the Balanced Budget Act, achieved peace in Northern Ireland, and facilitated the Dayton Peace Accords on former Yugoslavia.

A major scandal also doesn鈥檛 mean death in the polls. Reagan recovered after Iran-contra and left office with a 63 percent job approval rating, according to Gallup. Clinton survived impeachment and left office with the highest approval rating of any US president since the advent of polling, at 66 percent in a Gallup survey.

Obama took office at 66 percent approval, but drifted down to earth, only rising above 50 percent long enough to win reelection. His average job approval score for the duration of his presidency to date 鈥� 47 percent in Gallup polls 鈥� is below the average for US presidents. But he is governing in times of intense partisan polarization and high unease about the future of the nation. Stagnant wages and the threat of Islamic State are top concerns.

One of Obama鈥檚 roughest patches in office came just four months into his second term. Questions about the government鈥檚 response to the Sept. 11, 2012, attacks on the US mission in Benghazi, Libya, dogged the administration. The Internal Revenue Service admitted to targeting conservative groups for extra scrutiny. The Justice Department was caught secretly accessing reporters鈥� phone records.

Two years later, Obama has never seemed more confident as president.

鈥淚 finally know what I鈥檓 doing?鈥� he quipped to , who ticked off recent accomplishments, including hard-fought congressional passage of 鈥渇ast track鈥� trade authority and the negotiation of the Iran deal.

鈥淚 tell you, there鈥檚 no doubt that you get better as you go along,鈥� Obama added. Obama has also made clear that he鈥檚 been playing the 鈥渓ong game鈥� from the start, and counted on winning two terms.

鈥淎 lot of the work that we did early starts bearing fruit later,鈥� he told Mr. Stewart. 鈥淎nd it just so happened over the last couple of months, that people are seeing some of the work that we started way back when I first came in.鈥�

Much remains on Obama鈥檚 presidential 鈥渂ucket list.鈥� His campaign pledge to close the US prison camp at Guant谩namo Bay, Cuba, remains unfulfilled. The administration has pledged to submit a plan to Congress after the August recess.

An initiative with rare bipartisan, bicameral support 鈥� and therefore, potential for success 鈥� is reform of the criminal-justice system, an issue of particular importance in the black community. Planned legislation would narrow mandatory minimum prison sentences for drug crimes and divert nonviolent first-time offenders to probation and treatment. This initiative is key to Obama鈥檚 legacy as the first African-American president. So is his recently announced plan to tackle racial desegregation in the suburbs.

The United Nations-sponsored climate conference in Paris in December is another legacy item. As the president told Stewart, he hopes to get China and India on board with a binding, global agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The administration has promised an up-or-down decision on the controversial Keystone XL pipeline before Obama leaves office. But other agenda items 鈥� comprehensive immigration reform, gun control, a higher federal minimum wage, universal pre-K, free community college tuition 鈥� require congressional approval, and are going nowhere.

Then there鈥檚 the question of Obama鈥檚 post-presidency. Unlike Reagan, Obama will be a young ex-president. And he has certainly promised big things, including continued devotion to his My Brother鈥檚 Keeper initiative, which aims to help boys and young men of color lead productive lives. Africa, particularly his father鈥檚 native Kenya, promises to be a special focus, too.听 听

There are also signs that Obama鈥檚 nonprofit grass-roots organization, Organizing for Action 鈥� which promotes the president鈥檚 policies and trains community organizers 鈥� will endure after he leaves office, says Sidney Milkis, a political scientist at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, who has studied OFA.

Professor Milkis cites the group鈥檚 continued fundraising and suggests OFA could be instrumental in cementing the president鈥檚 legacy after he leaves office. 鈥淲ith 30 million e-mails, they amplify his voice and give him a presence in communities,鈥� he says.

The idea of Obama going back to his roots as a community organizer may not be all that far-fetched. That, plus staying active in My Brother鈥檚 Keeper (and making high-priced speeches) could make for a full life after the White House. 鈥淲ith his organization and relative youth, Obama could have a post-presidency that might be as significant in some ways as his presidency,鈥� says Robert C. Smith, a political scientist at San Francisco State University.听