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Biden-Ryan debate: why it doesn鈥檛 matter, and why it does

Vice presidential debates have no history of swinging presidential races. But after President Obama's subpar performance last week, Vice President Joe Biden faces pressure Thursday night.

Vice presidential debates are usually just a curiosity. The two people on stage are the understudies, not the tops of their tickets. Voters vote for president, not vice president. And despite the history of memorable zingers in veep debates 鈥� telling Republican Dan Quayle in 1988, 鈥淵ou鈥檙e no Jack Kennedy鈥� 鈥� these showdowns of No. 2鈥檚 have no history of swinging a presidential race.

As such, Thursday night鈥檚 debate between Vice President Joe Biden and Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan almost certainly won鈥檛 directly affect the outcome of the race. But after last week鈥檚 first presidential debate, in which President Obama was widely perceived to have delivered a subpar performance, the heat is on Mr. Biden to halt the Romney-Ryan ticket鈥檚 momentum.

The latest poll average on Real Clear Politics shows GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney now ahead of President Obama by 0.8 percentage points 鈥� well within the margin of error, but still a significant reversal from Mr. Obama鈥檚 4.3 percent lead on Sept. 29. By the Oct. 3 debate, Obama鈥檚 lead had already begun narrowing, and the Obama campaign insists the race was always going to be close, but there鈥檚 no denying that Biden is under pressure to perform well Thursday.

鈥淚t will be a setup for the next presidential debate,鈥� says Democratic strategist Peter Fenn. 鈥淏iden needs to lay out the specifics of where Romney-Ryan goes wrong, and where they [Obama-Biden] go right.鈥�

Biden will need to go on the offensive, Mr. Fenn says, not just in style but also "in substance and in clarity with the difference in their two positions.鈥�

One flashpoint is likely to be Medicare 鈥� the national health insurance program for seniors that is the largest contributor to long-term federal deficits. Congressman Ryan, chairman of the House Budget Committee, is author of a plan that would change Medicare from a fee-for-service setup to a system of 鈥減remium support.鈥� Biden calls it a plan to 鈥渧oucherize鈥� Medicare, forcing seniors over time to pay a growing share of their health-care costs out of pocket.

The Romney plan, a different version of Ryan鈥檚, also moves Medicare to 鈥減remium support,鈥� but Mr. Romney and Ryan maintain that by encouraging more private-sector competition among insurance plans, the costs would come down. They would also add means testing, providing less support to wealthier seniors and more to the less wealthy.

If Biden is clever, he can tie Ryan down on the details, at times vague, of the Romney-Ryan plan. In return, watch for Ryan鈥檚 mastery of all things budgetary and his skill on the stump in talking through budget matters in an accessible way. Ryan is sure to bring his Medicare-recipient mother, Betty Ryan Douglas, into the discussion, as a living, breathing example of why he wants to save Medicare, not destroy it, as the Democrats say the Romney-Ryan plan would end up doing.

Another likely flashpoint is Libya, hot on the heels of Wednesday鈥檚 congressional hearing on the attack at the US consulate in Benghazi last month that killed the US ambassador to Libya and three other Americans. The first Obama-Romney debate did not touch on foreign policy, and so Ryan will have his ticket鈥檚 first opportunity before a nationally televised audience to go after the Obama administration over the security breach and the administration鈥檚 shifting account of the events that led to the attack.

The risk for Ryan will come over his modest experience in foreign policy. Biden is highly experienced, not just as vice president but also as former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Still, the episode has dented the Obama administration鈥檚 positive image on national security, and as long as Ryan does not appear to be politicizing tragedy, his ticket could gain.

Style could be just as important as substance when Biden and Ryan go toe-to-toe. Last week, Obama took as much flak for his listless demeanor as for the actual words that came out of his mouth.

鈥淏iden has to take the fight to Ryan, but he has to do it in a way that doesn鈥檛 make him look like an unpleasant person,鈥� says Steven Schier, chairman of the political science department at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn. 听

Biden also needs to appeal emotionally to the audience as a 鈥渘ice person,鈥� while he鈥檚 鈥渃arving up his opponent with a stiletto,鈥� says Mr. Schier.

And he has to do so without misspeaking. Biden has a well-documented history of gaffes, but if his successful debate four years ago against GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin is any guide, he is capable of verbal discipline when the stakes are high. Against Ms. Palin, Biden had to avoid appearing condescending, given her light r茅sum茅 on national policy. Ryan isn鈥檛 a policy novice, but he鈥檚 young and so the gray-haired Biden still has to avoid appearing to talk down to the congressman from Wisconsin.

There鈥檚 also an experience gap on the national debate stage. Ryan will be a first-timer, compared with both Biden 鈥� who ran for president twice before joining the Obama ticket 鈥� and Romney, who took part in roughly 30 debates during primary season and evidently honed his skills.

Ryan and Biden鈥檚 gap in age, in fact, is historic for major-party vice presidential nominees, with Ryan in his early 40s and Biden pushing 70. Their age difference is so large 鈥� Generation X versus the Silent Generation 鈥� that they skip right over Baby Boomers, the听large generation that is flooding the social programs that have put the nation on an unsustainable fiscal path.

If Ryan and Biden鈥檚 ages provide contrast, their Roman Catholicism represents common ground, albeit from different sides of the political spectrum. Ryan鈥檚 Catholicism manifests itself in his strong advocacy for the rights of the unborn, whereas for Biden, his faith emphasis lies in programs for the poor.

In the end, the importance of the Ryan-Biden debate will lie in what the two men leave to their principals in the second presidential debate, to be held Oct. 16 at Hofstra University on Long Island, New York.

Michael Munger, a political scientist at Duke University in Durham, N.C., says history shows that vice presidential debates don鈥檛 matter. But he doesn鈥檛 rule out that this one could.听听

鈥淚n a close race, everything matters,鈥� he says.