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'Should a Senate vacancy occur,' who might replace Kennedy?

The ailing senator is thinking about his succession. The likely candidates can be divided into Kennedys and non-Kennedys.

Sen. Edward Kennedy did not specifically mention his illness or indicate that his resignation was imminent when he sent a letter to Massachusetts lawmakers.

But in the letter, released, Thursday, he did ask for legislators to change the state鈥檚 procedure for filling vacant senate seats, allowing the governor to appoint a temporary replacement 鈥�should a Senate vacancy occur.鈥�

Senator Kennedy went so far as to recommend that the governor obtain a personal promise that whomever he appoints will not run for Kennedy鈥檚 seat in the special election.

But who might be able to step in, both as temporary 鈥渃aretakers鈥� and as candidates in the special election?

Kennedy鈥檚 potential successors are often grouped into Kennedys and non-Kennedys.

Caretakers

The first caretaker offer would likely be extended to the senator鈥檚 wife Vicki Kennedy. 鈥淭hat would be good political manners,鈥� says Jeffrey Berry, a political scientist at Tufts University in Medford, Mass. She would likely refuse given the timing of the offer, but she could be a contender in the special election.

Joe Kennedy, the senator鈥檚 nephew, and Philip Johnston, former chairman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, could also be on the shortlist for caretakers, according to Professor Berry.

While Joe Kennedy has also been mentioned as a candidate in a special election, he has long stated his disinterest in politics. Additionally, in the course of his work with Citizens Energy Corporation, a nonprofit organization that provides heating oil to low income families, he has developed a relationship with the controversial president of Venezuela, Hugo Ch谩vez, which could also complicate his bid.

If a Kennedy were to run, 鈥渢hey鈥檇 be facing fierce competition,鈥� says Charles Stewart, a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge. 鈥淢assachusetts鈥� two senate seats have been totally locked up for decades now, and everybody with political ambition has been biding their time and waiting to run.鈥�

Special election

The list of non-Kennedy candidates is long.

Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley 鈥渉as all the marks of a potentially successful candidate,鈥� says Professor Stewart. She has had previous success in statewide elections and could be regarded as 鈥渁 breath of fresh air鈥� for voters who are tired of the 鈥渋nsider baseball鈥� nature of Massachusetts politics.

Massachusetts Treasurer Timothy Cahill and former Democratic Rep. Marty Meehan are also possibilities, according to Stewart, but so too are many members of the Massachusetts legislature.

Those with established statewide campaign organizations and leftover war chests from previous election fundraising are especially well positioned.

Reps. Stephen Lynch and Michael Capuano have made 鈥渢ried to make it be known that they鈥檇 like to run without it being offensive or insensitive to the Senator,鈥� says Berry.

Gov. Deval Patrick is another Massachusetts politician who is known to have national ambitions, but his popularity in the state has fallen recently, making his candidacy a risky one.

鈥淚t could look like he鈥檚 running away from the [Governor鈥檚] office,鈥� Berry notes. 鈥淸Lt. Gov.] Tim Murray would be a more likely candidate, but he鈥檚 said he鈥檚 going to be loyal and stay with the governor.鈥�