The reshaping of the GOP
The most fertile ground for Republicans is the growing ranks of independents. And efforts to rebrand the party from the inside are prompting a stir within a new generation of young politicians.
Steve Brodner
Washington
There鈥檚 a slight spring in the step of Republicans these days. President Obama is stumbling on health reform and his job approval rating is sinking. Suddenly, life in the wilderness doesn鈥檛 look so bleak to a GOP that got trounced in the last two elections and was, to some, staring possible extinction in the face.
The party could well take two key governorships 鈥� New Jersey and Virginia 鈥� away from the Democrats in November.
Recruiting for next year鈥檚 House, Senate, and gubernatorial races has gotten easier, in anticipation of midterm elections that historically favor the out-of-power party.
Already, top Republicans are cautioning against overconfidence.
鈥淲e are doing better,鈥� says House minority leader John Boehner. 鈥淏ut let鈥檚 be honest, we鈥檝e got a long way to go.鈥�
Mr. Boehner wants Americans to judge politicians on what they do, not what they say. But these days, words are just about all Republicans in Washington have. With the Democrats running the show, it鈥檚 hard to get anyone to pay attention to GOP policy ideas. And it鈥檚 not as if they鈥檙e coming out with anything markedly different from before: The latest House GOP proposal for health reform centers on the use of tax credits to help modest-income Americans buy insurance.
But a Big Idea doesn鈥檛 have to precede a political comeback. Newt Gingrich鈥檚 Contract With America, the 10-point policy agenda released before the historic GOP takeover of Congress in 1994, was not widely known among the public. It was the congressional Democrats鈥� deep unpopularity, topped off by President Clinton鈥檚 mistakes, that swept the Republicans into power on Capitol Hill for the first time in 40 years.
Today, Democrats have a lot of goodwill to burn before they see the lows that the GOP has faced of late. And even if Republicans pick up seats in Congress next year, the chances of retaking either house are virtually nil. In fact, analysts say, the danger is that the Republicans pick up seats in 2010, feel better, and decide that they don鈥檛 need to change after all.
Searching for the next Ronald Reagan or a Republican Obama is also not the answer.
鈥淧arties go for decades without Obamas and Reagans,鈥� says Dan Schnur, a former Republican strategist in California.
The most fertile terrain for Republicans is the burgeoning ranks of independents 鈥� politically unaligned voters who are, essentially, up for grabs. GOP efforts to 鈥渞ebrand鈥� the party have started fitfully. One initiative, launched by House Republican whip Eric Cantor, often touted as one of the party鈥檚 rising stars, is on hold. On May 2, his National Council for a New America held its first 鈥� and so far only 鈥� stop on a 鈥渓istening tour鈥� at a pizza parlor in northern Virginia, aimed at hearing voters鈥� concerns and talking solutions. The session, joined by 2008 presidential candidate Mitt Romney and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, was panned by social conservatives, who complained that no leaders of the 鈥渧alues wing鈥� of the party were included.
The irony is that the leaders who did appear all subscribe to the conservative social agenda, but are not seen as being 鈥渙f鈥� that movement 鈥� and thus have the potential to attract a larger constituency. Still, alienating social conservatives, like 2008 candidate Mike Huckabee, who criticized the 鈥渓istening tour鈥� idea, is risky business for the GOP.
The challenge at the heart of the party鈥檚 rebuilding effort is to preserve its existing coalition 鈥� economic and social conservatives 鈥� while convincing ordinary Americans in the middle that the party is addressing their concerns, not captured by rigid ideology. The loud voices on conservative cable TV and radio have made that challenge all the more difficult.
It all goes back to the big tent. And Reagan鈥檚 model still applies, says Princeton political historian Julian Zelizer. 鈥淩eagan certainly did a lot of things social conservatives did not like,鈥� says Mr. Zelizer. 鈥淎bortion was not the centerpiece of his administration.鈥�
Ted Cruz, a candidate for attorney general of Texas who has captured national GOP attention, says that in recent years, the party has had the worst of two worlds: 鈥淭hey have gotten away from core conservative principles of limited government and individual opportunity and responsibility, but at the same time, have employed rhetoric and framed the argument in a way that has driven people away.鈥�
Reagan didn鈥檛 boast about how conservative he was. 鈥淲hat he said was, 鈥楲ook, I鈥檓 standing up for common-sense values that every small town in America and every small business and family has understood for centuries. This is who we are,鈥� says Mr. Cruz.
Still, the GOP faces a tall task in reengaging large swaths of the population it has alienated 鈥� moderates, moderate women in particular, minorities, gays. Judy Singleton, cofounder of an Indiana program that trains Republican women for political leadership, wishes the party would go back to its traditional focus on national security and fiscal conservatism and stay silent on social issues. 鈥淪ome of these people act like abortion and [opposition to] gay marriage are what define you as a Republican, and women are saying no,鈥� Ms. Singleton says.
If the view from Washington has looked bleak for Republicans until recently, outside the Beltway the party has some reasons for cheer. A new generation of young Republicans is aiming high in politics. In St. Petersburg, Fla., two-term mayor Rick Baker shows that a Republican can govern successfully in a Democratic city. Meet, too, Colorado鈥檚 Josh Penry, former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, and Ted Cruz of Texas, aspiring state attorney general and son of a Cuban immigrant.
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