海角大神

The US and Iran are both claiming victory, but what wins peace?

The United States paused its 38-day war against Iran on Wednesday, with President Donald Trump appearing eager to declare victory and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saying the military, 鈥渇or now, has done its part.鈥�

Announcing a two-week ceasefire just minutes before the Tuesday deadline he had set for reopening the Strait of Hormuz 鈥� an ultimatum that included threats that 鈥渁 whole civilization will die鈥� 鈥� President Trump hailed the truce as a 鈥渂ig day for world peace.鈥� The Iranian regime has 鈥渉ad enough,鈥� he said.

But hours after the truce, Iran and Gulf Arab countries reported new attacks, Israel bombarded Lebanon, and Iran once again closed the strait, through which 20% of the world鈥檚 oil flows, raising concerns about whether the deal would hold.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration came under criticism for being willing to negotiate an Iranian 10-point peace plan that appeared to give that country significant concessions while not addressing America鈥檚 stated reasons for starting the war.

Secretary Hegseth claimed 鈥渁 capital V military victory,鈥� and Iran鈥檚 army and navy suffered tremendous blows, analysts agree. Indeed, there was little doubt going into the war that America鈥檚 armed forces could beat Iran鈥檚.

The question was at what cost 鈥� and to what end.

For now, all sides can make the case for victory. For the Iranian regime 鈥� more hardened than ever, some analysts say 鈥� success means having survived. For the U.S. and Israel, the win is in claiming to have dramatically curbed Iran鈥檚 ability to strike out militarily against the rest of the world.

At the Wednesday briefing, Mr. Trump said the U.S. action had resulted in a 鈥渧ery productive regime change鈥� in Iran, while Mr. Hegseth seemed to blur the definition of what, exactly, regime change means.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a new group of people who鈥檝e seen the full capability鈥� of the U.S. military with 鈥渁 new calculus about what it means to negotiate with us,鈥� Mr. Hegseth said.

What the Iran peace plan says

Iran has submitted a 10-point peace proposal that Mr. Trump said Wednesday is a 鈥渨orkable basis on which to negotiate鈥� with 鈥渁lmost all of the various points of past contention鈥� resolved. The two-week ceasefire, announced Tuesday night, will allow the deal to be 鈥渇inalized and consummated,鈥� Mr. Trump added.

Under these terms, Iran鈥檚 military could retain its current control of the strait. And Iran and Oman could charge transit fees of up to $2 million on selected ships that pass through the waterway, with the collected funds used for postwar reconstruction rather than using reparations from the U.S. and Israel, according to other reports. The waterway operated under international, not Iranian, control before the war began, analysts point out.

When asked Wednesday morning whether the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran had effectively closed, was now reopened to ships, Gen. Dan Caine, America鈥檚 top military officer, did not appear certain. 鈥淚 believe so,鈥� he said.

Some leaked details of the peace proposal suggest that Iran is seeking acceptance of its right to continue with its nuclear enrichment program. Many analysts argue that such a concession by the U.S. is an unlikely prospect, since it would run counter to one of Mr. Trump鈥檚 stated reasons for attacking Iran in the first place.

This is bolstered by this week that the Trump administration, during talks in the February run-up to the war, offered to fund Iran鈥檚 nuclear fuel indefinitely to get the country鈥檚 civilian energy program going. That move, the report said, was to test whether Iran鈥檚 regime was truly interested in benign nuclear energy resources, as it claimed, or nuclear weapons. Iran reportedly rejected the offer, making the administration鈥檚 case, some officials argued, that the regime remained focused on developing a nuclear bomb.

At the Pentagon, officials say, they will soon be focused on retrieving enriched uranium that remains buried under rubble since the U.S. strike on Iran鈥檚 nuclear facilities last June.

鈥淩ight now it鈥檚 buried, and we鈥檙e watching it. We know exactly what they have,鈥� Mr. Hegseth said Wednesday. The regime will give it to the U.S. 鈥渧oluntarily,鈥� or the U.S. will 鈥渢ake it out,鈥� he added.

Destruction of many, but not all, weapons

Eager to bolster their claim of victory, Pentagon officials on Wednesday emphasized the destruction that the war had wrought on Iran鈥檚 military.

The U.S. has destroyed roughly 80% of Iran鈥檚 air defense systems, as well as 450 ballistic missile storage centers and 800 facilities that housed attack drones, General Caine said. The U.S. has also sunk 90% of Iran鈥檚 navy, with 150 ships, along with half of its small attack boats, now 鈥渁t the bottom of the ocean,鈥� he added. Some 95% of Iran鈥檚 naval mines have also been decommissioned, according to military intelligence that the general cited.

But as these numbers suggest, Iran still has firepower. About 20% of Iranian air defenses are still functional, some analysts said. The number of storage facilities that U.S. and Israeli strikes have destroyed sounds impressive. Still, the remaining capacity is difficult to evaluate without knowing the overall total, Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, .

And while the U.S.-Israeli force鈥檚 destruction of 95% of Iran鈥檚 mines sounds promising, it leaves the Middle Eastern nation with potentially hundreds of mines, Ms. Grieco added. That鈥檚 plenty of explosives that could be used to close the strait again.

Analysts, meanwhile, remain split on how quickly Iran could rearm should the regime decide to do so. It could also reposition its weapons systems, including the shoulder-fired missile launchers known as MANPADS that shot down a U.S. F-15E fighter jet last week, setting off a search-and-rescue mission for two crew members.

The Pentagon is now analyzing the details of the downed fighter jet, including the 鈥渢actical lessons learned,鈥� General Caine said.

For now, the U.S. military will 鈥渂e hanging around鈥� the region to ensure Iran complies with the ceasefire, Mr. Hegseth said.

In the meantime, as Wednesday wore on, there were concerns about whether the ceasefire would hold as the United Arab Emirates reportedly carried out airstrikes on an Iranian refinery in retaliation for earlier Iranian strikes on the UAE鈥檚 infrastructure.

Even as military leaders were fielding reporters鈥� questions in Washington, Lebanon was undergoing some of the most intense attacks from Israel since the war began. Closing the strait once again was Iran鈥檚 response.

When asked whether there would be some 鈥済race period鈥� for the exchange of strikes to end, Mr. Hegseth was philosophical.

鈥淚t takes time, sometimes, for ceasefires to take hold,鈥� he said.

Another reporter asked the secretary whether the U.S. is still encouraging protesters in Iran to rise up, or whether it is satisfied with the country鈥檚 current leadership.

鈥淭hey鈥檙e brave people,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e wish them the best.鈥�