Is murder upswing starting to abate? Some US cities see declines.
Boston, seen here on Dec. 29, 2021, is among the U.S. cities where murder rates fell in 2021, countering the national trend. The homicide rate fell 28% in Boston for the year, and declined by double-digit rates in a number of other cities including Miami, Dallas, and Seattle.
Brian Snyder/Reuters
Despite a second straight year of rising homicides in 2021, last year鈥檚 violent crime data show some reasons for hope.听
First, even though the homicide rate rose again, it slowed down. For 2020, it posted a 30% year-on-year听increase, . By comparison, for the first three quarters of last year听.*
Second, that rise hasn鈥檛 been uniform. Homicides rose in almost every major city in 2020 鈥� 鈥� but that wasn鈥檛 true in 2021. Some cities 鈥� like Portland, Oregon; and Albuquerque, New Mexico 鈥� still had major increases. But others, like Boston and Dallas, had major dips.
Why We Wrote This
Declining homicide rates in some U.S. cities hint at hope amid concern about a jump in violent crime. The reasons may range from improved policing to an easing of pandemic stresses on society.
That鈥檚 reason for optimism, says Richard Rosenfeld, a criminologist at the University of Missouri, St. Louis. Nationally, he says, it suggests that the trends driving up violent crime听 鈥� like the COVID-19 pandemic and social unrest 鈥撎齢ave started to wane.听
鈥淲hat, generally speaking, we鈥檙e seeing in most but perhaps not all places is an unraveling of some of the conditions that gave rise to the increase in 鈥�20,鈥� says Professor Rosenfeld.听
Beyond that, numbers that vary city by city tend to have city-by-city explanations.听Improved policing seems to be the answer in some cities, and community-based interventions may also be playing a role, though their effect is less certain.听
Despite the overall rise since 2019,听America鈥檚 homicide rate is still far below the violent crime peaks of the 1990s. A more nuanced national picture in 2021, says Professor Rosenfeld, may suggest future increases aren鈥檛 inevitable.听
鈥淚 think it is good news,鈥� he says.
*Editor's note: One paragraph has been corrected to show that the 30% rise in homicides in 2020 was for the full year.听