Could profiling prevent another Orlando shooting?
Often missed in the civil liberties debate over profiling is evidence that shows it is not effective. But proponents point to Israel, whose airport screening has kept it free of attacks since 1972.
President Barack Obama greets children from Al-Rahmah school and other guests during his visit to the Islamic Society of Baltimore, Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2016, in Baltimore, Md. Obama is making his first visit to a U.S. mosque at a time Muslim-Americans say they're confronting increasing levels of bias in speech and deeds.
Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP
After Omar Mateen鈥檚 attack in Orlando last week, Donald Trump revived a controversial proposal: profiling Muslim Americans to prevent terrorism.
鈥淚 hate the concept of profiling, but we have to use common sense,鈥� Mr. Trump said Sunday in . 鈥淲e鈥檙e not using common sense.鈥�
The debate over racial profiling has long centered on striking a balance between national security and civil liberties. But sometimes lost in that debate is evidence that the practice is ineffective, or even counterproductive.
To proponents like Mr. Trump who cite Israel as a model, the value of clearly identifying threats 鈥� even if that聽forces officials to focus on a single race or ethnicity 鈥� is the beginning of common-sense security. But the limited data that exist suggests that a one-size-fits-all approach to terrorism actually misses many threats and can overload agencies with false alarms.
鈥淔or example, if fire alarms were going off constantly, fire departments couldn鈥檛 respond to real fires as they should. That鈥檚 why it鈥檚 a crime to ring an alarm without a fire,鈥� says Michael German, a former Federal Bureau of Investigation agent and current fellow with New York University School of Law鈥檚 Brennan Center for Justice. 鈥淭he idea that there is one particular race or religion that drives this political violence is not supported by the evidence.鈥�
Between 2001 and 2016, roughly two-thirds of 508 extremists who engaged in violent attacks 鈥� such as mass shootings 鈥� identified with jihadist terrorism, according to聽聽compiled by the New America Foundation.
Only eight were illegal residents, compared to 150 US-born citizens. Sixty-seven identified as Arab or Middle Eastern, but significant numbers come from other backgrounds, including 49 Somalis, 48 South Asians, 35 Caucasians, and 35 African-Americans. There were also Hispanics, Albanians, a Uighur, and others.
Of the 10 violent jihadist attacks on US soil since 9/11, such as the Fort Hood shooting, none of them have been committed by a foreign terrorist organization.
William Press, a statistician at the University of Texas, found in 2008 that profiling . Even under a hypothetical all-knowing government, he says, the profiling system would sample innocent individuals who happen to have a high-risk value while ignoring 鈥渕alfeasors鈥� who learn to adjust their behavior.
鈥淚t is not only wrong and unconstitutional, but it is also at odds with reality,鈥� says Hugh Handeyside, a staff attorney with American Civil Liberties Union鈥檚 National Security Project. 鈥淭he science regarding who carries out terrorist attacks has yielded no distinct model to predict who will carry out terrorist attacks.鈥�
The law on racial profiling
After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, President George W. Bush and Attorney General John Ashcroft outlawed profiling in law enforcement, because they deemed it as contrary to the nation鈥檚 founding principle of 鈥�.鈥�
In 2014, the US Department of Justice expanded its restrictions on profiling to cover gender, national origin, religion, and sexual orientation, as well as race and ethnicity. But federal employees, such as FBI agents and those working for the Department of Homeland Security, are permitted to profile individuals within 鈥渢he vicinity of the border.鈥� In addition, 30 states , according to the NAACP.
Proponents argue, however, that racial profiling is an unfortunate necessity in today鈥檚 world of terrorism. Conservative political commentator Michelle Malkin cites the case of Phoenix FBI agent Kenneth Williams, who asked his superiors in the summer of 2001 to investigate Muslim men training at American flight schools. His request was denied, based partly on concerns of profiling.
鈥淚f the FBI had taken Williams鈥� advice, the feeling of some Arabs and Muslims might have been hurt. But the Twin Towers might still be standing and 3,000 innocent people might be alive today,鈥� Malkin wrote in . 鈥淚t is unfortunate that loyal Muslims or Arabs might be burdened because of terrorists who share their race, nationality, or religion. But any inconvenience is preferable to suffering a second mass terrorist attack on American soil.鈥�
Opponents say the US gave racial profiling a chance with former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg鈥檚 Demographics Unit. After years of surveying Muslim communities, the New York Police Department did not find one terrorism lead.
Israel's model: effective or counterproductive?
In his interview Sunday, Trump used Israel as an example of the effectiveness of racial profiling. Travelers passing through Israel鈥檚 Ben Gurion airport are subjected to different levels of screening based on characteristics such as skin color or language. Arab citizens of Israel are routinely subject to lengthy and often humiliating searches.
While this may sound unthinkable by US terms, there have been no successful terrorist attacks at Israeli airports since 1972.
Adm. Ami Ayalon, former director of Israel鈥檚 Shin Bet 鈥� the country鈥檚 domestic security agency 鈥� says Israel鈥檚 use of racial profiling today is counterproductive.
鈥淛ust because it is safe today, doesn鈥檛 mean it will be safe tomorrow,鈥� says Admiral Ayalon. 鈥淚n the long run, we create the next wave of violence as a result of what we doing now to secure ourselves.鈥�
鈥淲hen we are trying to achieve better security by using profiling, in a way we are getting the opposite impact or result,鈥� he says. 鈥淣obody can say whether the terror in our streets was not the result of the engagement or humiliation that they felt in our airports. It was easier to respond in the streets, but the hatred was created in the airports.鈥�
The right red flags
Israel鈥檚 last airport security debacle, more than four decades ago, is an example of racial profiling gone wrong. Because officials were looking for Palestinian attackers, they didn鈥檛 stop the three Japanese shooters recruited by Palestinian militants who arrived at the airport with guns and grenades and killed 26.
And while Trump said Mr. Mateen, the Orlando shooter, raised a lot of red flags, it鈥檚 not clear a profiling effort would have caught them.
鈥淎 potentially gay Muslim. What profile does that fit?鈥� asks Saif Inam, a policy analyst at the Muslim Public Affairs Council, who says the American Muslim community is one of the most diverse Muslim communities in the world. 鈥淓ither everyone is going to be a suspect or no one is going to be a suspect. Either way you are not going to keep the community safe.鈥�
Building relationships with community members is a more effective way of preventing hate crimes, mass violence, and terrorism, says Ranjana Natarajan, director of the Civil Rights Clinic at the University of Texas School of Law. 鈥淏ut if agencies are profiling people instead of engaging with them,鈥� she says, 鈥渢hat undermines any attempt of relationship building.鈥�