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US wants Kurdish boots on the ground in Iran. Why it鈥檚 not an easy ask.

President Donald Trump said this week that the air war currently being waged against Iran by the United States and Israel might eventually have to include a ground game.

Yet Mr. Trump faces considerable domestic political pressures against American boots on the ground, so his phone calls this week to Kurdish leaders in Iraq and Iran, exhorting them to play their part in the war, have led to speculation that Kurdish armed forces might fulfill that role.

But any fervor among the stateless Kurds to join the fight for regime change 鈥� and Iranian Kurds have been looking forward to that day 鈥� would be weighed against the risk of once again being used and then abandoned by the U.S., various sources say.

Indeed, for the Kurdish minority leaders in Iran and Iraq who received Mr. Trump鈥檚 calls, there was first the rush of hearing from the president of the United States.

Add to that the thrill of a presidential summons to 鈥渞ise up鈥� against the Iranian Kurds鈥� nemesis in Tehran, the rulers of the Islamic Republic, who have been severely weakened by the U.S.-Israeli war.

But then, the fall. The initial enthusiasm was tempered, Kurdish sources and other experts say, by memory of a long history of 鈥渦se 鈥檈m and drop 鈥檈m鈥� treatment by Washington.

鈥淭his puts the Kurds in a serious dilemma,鈥� says Yerevan Saeed, a scholar in residence at American University鈥檚 School of International Service in Washington. 鈥淥f course, there is at first enthusiasm at being called by the president,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut there is also a wariness and the memory of betrayal by the U.S. in very similar circumstances.鈥�

Legacy of Iraq and Syria

The Kurds have not forgotten President George H.W. Bush鈥檚 entreaty to Iraqi Kurds to rise up against a villainous and weakened Saddam Hussein in the wake of the 1991 Gulf War. Nor the subsequent American silence when Saddam unleashed his massacring forces on rebellious Kurdish communities, who had already been victimized by Iraq鈥檚 notorious Anfal campaign in the late 1980s.

Moreover, the sting is still fresh from hearing the Trump administration鈥檚 Syria envoy, Tom Barrack, declare in January that the utility of a decade-plus-long U.S.-Kurdish pact to fight a resurgent Islamic State group in Syria had 鈥渆xpired.鈥� The U.S. interest now, Mr. Barrack said, was seeing the new central government in Damascus consolidate power over the whole country 鈥� and over independent militia groups.

Groups such as Washington鈥檚 erstwhile partners, the Syrian Kurds.

鈥淭oo often, the Kurds are remembered only when their strength or sacrifice is needed,鈥� said Iraqi first lady Shanaz Ibrahim Ahmed in a statement on Thursday. 鈥淟eave the Kurds alone. We are not guns for hire.鈥�

Before the Kurds do anything to put themselves at greater risk of attack from Tehran, however, 鈥渢hey would want firm guarantees of support from Washington,鈥� Dr. Saeed says. 鈥淏ut even such commitments wouldn鈥檛 erase the doubts about trusting the U.S. based on past experience.鈥�

Mr. Trump reportedly offered air support among other incentives during his phone calls with Kurdish leaders. On Sunday, he contacted Masoud Barzani, head of the Kurdish Democratic Party, and Bafel Talabani, head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, leaders of the two major political parties governing Iraq鈥檚 semi-autonomous Kurdish region. On Tuesday, the president called Mustafa Hijri, head of the Iraq-based Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), one of six Kurdish anti-regime political parties.

The six groups recently formed a coalition to take military action jointly, though representatives say no decisions have been made. They say serious signs of U.S. air cover would have to come first. Iran has already issued severe threats against the Kurdish groups, and on Thursday launched missile attacks against their Iraqi headquarters.

On Wednesday, the PDKI issued a statement calling on all Iranian soldiers and military personnel, 鈥渆specially in Kurdistan,鈥� to abandon their bases and sever all ties with 鈥渢he regime鈥檚 armed and repressive forces.鈥� The statement echoed Mr. Trump鈥檚 promise of immunity, declared during the early hours of the war, to all elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other security forces turning against the regime.

40 million Kurds, no state

Globally, the Kurds number about 40 million people spread from Turkey and Syria to Iran, and are considered the world鈥檚 largest ethnic group without its own state. The closest they come is the group鈥檚 semi-autonomous region in Iraq.

Iranian Kurds, concentrated in Iran鈥檚 northwestern Kurdistan region, make up about 10 percent of the country鈥檚 population of 90 million.

Why Washington would turn to the Kurds in its war against the Islamic Republic is no mystery. The Iranian Kurdish militias based across the country鈥檚 northern border have been poised for decades to return to Iran to fight the hated central government when the time was ripe.

Recent reports claim the CIA, which has maintained relations with various Kurdish armed forces across the Middle East, has stepped up arms supplies to Iranian Kurdish forces.

With President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week cracking open the door to an eventual ground campaign in the war, some experts speculate the Iranian Kurdish forces could step in to play a role.

鈥淭he Iranian Kurds very much want to go home to topple the regime, and the administration understands this and sees working with and through their land forces as a way to obviate the need for U.S. forces on the ground,鈥� says David Schenker, a former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs.

鈥淏ut, for the Kurds, it鈥檚 a very risky endeavor,鈥� he adds. 鈥淭hey might get some level of operational support, but on the whole, these folks will be on their own.鈥�

Also holding them back is the lack of clarity on the mission being asked of them, says Dr. Saeed, himself an Iraqi Kurd. Is the U.S. offering a role in a fight whose ultimate goal is regime change, he and others wonder, or does the U.S. envision the Kurds creating a distraction in northern Iran, thereby forcing the IRGC to respond and thin out its forces and potentially weaken its hold on other parts of the country?

鈥淥ne concern would be if the Kurds could expect to get some long-term benefit and to advance their own objectives by joining the war,鈥� he says, 鈥渙r if they would be just a temporary utility that becomes disposable when other U.S. objectives are achieved.鈥�

Pros and cons of an ethnic role

The U.S. would have its own concerns to take into account before throwing its weight behind the Iranian Kurds or any other Iranian ethnic minority group, others underscore.

鈥淭he risk for the U.S. is that a regime collapse aided by armed opposition groups could very quickly devolve into chaos,鈥� says Mr. Schenker, who is now director of Arab politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 鈥淭hat could potentially fuel a number of post-regime problems, including a division of the state along ethnic lines.鈥�

Others have offered more hopeful takes on how Iran鈥檚 ethnic groups, including the Kurds, could be encouraged to translate their experience as minorities navigating a hard-line religious autocracy into the promotion of a post-regime multiethnic democracy.

They note that, along with Iran鈥檚 students, it has sometimes been the country鈥檚 minorities that have sparked significant anti-regime movements. One example is how the 2022 arrest and killing of a young Iranian Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, over her refusal to wear the obligatory head covering in public, touched off a wave of women-led protests nationwide.

How the Kurds鈥� long, complicated relationship with the U.S. influences their role in the Iran war remains to be seen, but in the end, the positive side of the ledger of U.S.-Kurdish relations will likely outweigh the disappointments, Dr. Saeed says.

鈥淭he bitter experiences won鈥檛 be forgotten, but overall it鈥檚 still a win for the Kurds given what they have gained from their alliance with the U.S.,鈥� he says. He points to the Kurdish semi-autonomous region in Iraq, which got off the ground under the protective umbrella of a U.S. no-fly zone enforced over the final years of Saddam鈥檚 regime.

Still, he says, 鈥淚t comes down to what [former Kurdistan Region President Masoud] Barzani has said: 鈥榃e really don鈥檛 have anyone to rely on. We have to depend only on ourselves.鈥欌��