海角大神

At G20, Biden promotes US leadership, but faces its limits

When world leaders assembled for their group photo at the G20 summit in New Delhi Sunday, there was no Xi Jinping to showcase China鈥檚 rise, no Vladimir Putin to glad-hand and lobby for Russia鈥檚 perspective on its war in Ukraine.

Alone with big-power status at the elaborately decorated Gandhi monument was U.S. President Joe Biden. He was 鈥渄isappointed,鈥� he said, that Mr. Xi skipped the meeting, yet relishing a moment that underscored the United States鈥� still-unrivaled position and breadth in the 21st-century world.

It was affirmative for a president who took office in January 2021 asserting that 鈥淎merica is back鈥� after the retrenchment and disdain for U.S. global leadership of the Trump presidency.

鈥淭he message 鈥楢merica is back鈥� is pretty easy to sell at a G20 where the president of the United States is in attendance, but Xi and Putin are not,鈥� says Daniel Drezner, a professor of international politics at Tufts University鈥檚 Fletcher School in Medford, Massachusetts, and an expert in U.S. grand strategy and geopolitics.

Mr. Biden was 鈥渆ngaged in what [former Secretary of State] George Shultz used to refer to as 鈥榞ardening,鈥� and it鈥檚 something Biden really goes out of his way to do,鈥� he adds. 鈥淵ou take care of your allies and partners and work with them along the way so they will trust you and work with you and with international institutions鈥� 鈥� like the G20, NATO, or the AUKUS grouping of Asia-Pacific powers.

Still, Mr. Biden鈥檚 turn to the world stage, which wrapped up Monday with a stop in Vietnam, was not one of unmitigated triumph. The trip also highlighted a rising challenge to established global powers from developing countries, as well as growing doubts about America鈥檚 staying power as the 2024 presidential election looms.

The developing world鈥檚 desire not to be beholden to any one power or to the U.S.-led post-World War II international order was evident in the G20 summit鈥檚 final statement, which contained softer language on Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine than did the group鈥檚 statement last year.

That change reflected host India鈥檚 efforts since Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion in February 2022 to stake out a neutral position amenable not just to it but to numerous developing countries that have eschewed the West鈥檚 fierce condemnation of Moscow鈥檚 aggression.

Indeed for some experts, the stubborn global divide over the war in Ukraine demonstrates the limits of Mr. Biden鈥檚 approach to foreign policy.

鈥淢uch to Biden鈥檚 credit, he rallied our European allies on Ukraine, but his inability to rally other countries from a standoffish position ... has to be seen as a negative,鈥� says Robert Lieber, emeritus professor of government and international affairs at Georgetown University in Washington. The G20 statement on Ukraine is further evidence that 鈥渢he number of countries willing to condemn Russia since its invasion hasn鈥檛 budged,鈥� he adds.

Mr. Biden may have won some points with the Global South as a result of the proposals he championed at the summit, including new World Bank initiatives to put more money into developing countries鈥� digital connectivity and other projects. He also signed on to a new infrastructure project to connect India to the Middle East and Europe through rail and ports 鈥� a plan some analysts say aims to provide an alternative to China鈥檚 ambitious Belt and Road program.

But countries are unlikely to be won over until the shovels actually start hitting the dirt, some experts say.

鈥淭he Global South鈥檚 point of view is that so far they鈥檝e heard mostly talk even as China has steadily moved infrastructure projects along,鈥� says Robert Daly, director of the Wilson Center鈥檚 Kissinger Institute on China and the United States in Washington. 鈥淚f you want to win them over, you have to change their perspective that we [the West] provide lectures, while China provides easy cash.鈥�

Concerns over a return of isolationism

Then there are the doubts Mr. Biden faces internationally concerning the prospects for his international vision or for a more isolationist America, especially if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House.

鈥淲hat I heard was deep concern over what was widely portrayed as the historic disaster a second Trump presidency would constitute,鈥� says Mr. Daly, who returned to Washington last week from Berlin. 鈥淚t鈥檚 quite clear [other countries] would no longer see the U.S. as a reliable partner they can count on and work with if they鈥檙e going to be whipsawed by a dramatic change in our foreign policy every four years.鈥�

Indeed for some, part of Mr. Biden鈥檚 objective over a month heavily focused on foreign policy 鈥� next week he鈥檒l make the case for his international vision at the United Nations General Assembly in New York 鈥� will be to secure to the extent he can America鈥檚 role in the world, whatever the result of the next presidential election.

鈥淭he primary thing Biden can do is defeat Trump in 2024,鈥� says Dr. Drezner, whose article 鈥淏racing for Trump 2.0鈥� is featured in this month鈥檚 Foreign Affairs.

Mr. Biden can use the months before entering the heat of the campaign to cement his vision and America鈥檚 commitment to its global role by locking in ties with allies and partners, he says. Gains that the administration seeks with some hard-to-crack cases 鈥� Dr. Drezner cites Mexico on immigration and illicit drugs, and Iran on its nuclear program 鈥� might be won by using the 鈥渢hreat鈥� that terms for cooperation will be better now than under a second Trump administration.

In case anyone failed to grasp the message of an engaged America at the G20, Mr. Biden bookended the India visit with further displays of U.S. leadership.

On his post-summit stop in Vietnam, he cemented a strategic partnership aimed at countering China鈥檚 increasingly aggressive activity in the South China Sea. Vietnam raised the U.S. to the highest level in its hierarchy of diplomatic relations.

Mr. Biden 鈥� who met at the G20 with China鈥檚 No. 2 leader, Premier Li Qiang 鈥� rejected聽the suggestion at a Sunday press conference in Hanoi that his five-day trip 鈥渁round the world鈥� was about聽containing China,聽preferring to characterize it as聽aimed at fostering greater global security through strengthened ties with allies and partners.

鈥淲e have an opportunity to strengthen alliances around the world to maintain stability,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 what this trip was all about.鈥�

Global campaign

Equally striking in this endeavor was the full-court press of American global engagement that the administration ran over the week leading up to the G20 summit.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv to demonstrate 鈥渆nduring support鈥� for Ukraine against Russian aggression, while White House Middle East envoy Brett McGurk traveled to Riyadh to press forward on a potential Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement that would transform the Middle East.

The U.S ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield 鈥� a member of Mr. Biden鈥檚 Cabinet 鈥� made a visit to Chad鈥檚 border with Sudan to highlight the plight of refugees from Sudan鈥檚 civil war and warn about the threat of what some experts say could be another genocide in Sudan鈥檚 Darfur.

The flurry of recent activity around the administration鈥檚 goal of a grand deal securing a normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia had many eyes trained on Mr. Biden in New Delhi to see if he would meet with summit attendee Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

No meeting occurred, though Mr. Biden did warmly shake hands with the crown prince 鈥� whom he had once vowed to treat as a 鈥減ariah鈥� over the 2018 assassination of Saudi journalist and U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi.

Georgetown鈥檚 Dr. Lieber says a normalization deal would constitute a 鈥渟ea change鈥� in the Middle East and a 鈥渞eal achievement for Biden鈥檚 foreign policy鈥� in the run-up to the 2024 election.

鈥淚t鈥檚 the kind of deal that only an engaged United States would be able to accomplish,鈥� says Dr. Lieber, author of the recent book 鈥淚ndispensable Nation: American Foreign Policy in a Turbulent World.鈥�

He says there鈥檚 no getting around the 鈥渢errible crime鈥� the Saudis committed in killing Mr. Khashoggi. But he says the reality is that the U.S. engages with many unsavory leaders and countries 鈥渢hat have committed vastly greater crimes,鈥� in pursuit not just of its own interests but of a more 鈥渟table world.鈥�