海角大神

Pelosi in Taiwan: Stress test for the Biden-Xi relationship

At the end of their sometimes-tense phone conversation last week, President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping managed to sign off with a comparatively lighter moment.

Mr. Xi had warned the United States over the course of the two-hour-plus call not to 鈥減lay with fire鈥� over Taiwan, while Mr. Biden confronted his Chinese counterpart over Beijing鈥檚 theft of American companies鈥� intellectual property and other unfair economic practices.

But as they said their goodbyes, both leaders quipped they were leaving their respective teams with plenty of issues to work on together, from climate to global health.

鈥淭here was an exchange at the end about how much work they鈥檇 created for their teams in terms of following up on the specific pieces,鈥� said a senior administration official who was one of several aides with President Biden for the phone conversation. 鈥淭here was very much a clear, affirmative agenda that was put forward 鈥� for the teams to work toward.鈥�

That determination by both leaders to keep channels of communication open between the world鈥檚 two premier powers and to further cooperation where possible has almost been forgotten in the days since the Thursday phone call.

The reason? House Speaker Nancy Pelosi鈥檚 visit to Taiwan during her trip to Asia this week.

Ms. Pelosi arrived on the island of Taiwan across from mainland China Tuesday evening (Tuesday morning U.S. time) after days of speculation over whether the stopover would take place. In the capital, the Taipei 101 office tower was lit up with a greeting that flashed 鈥淪peaker Pelosi鈥� and 鈥淭W鈾�US.鈥�

China considers Taiwan part of its territory, and regards any diplomacy with Taiwan 鈥� especially from a high-ranking American official 鈥� as provocative interference in Chinese sovereignty. The United States has for decades maintained a 鈥渙ne-China鈥� policy that formally recognizes only the People鈥檚 Republic of China, even as it pursues arms sales and a strong trade relationship with the vibrant island democracy.

Indeed, Mr. Xi鈥檚 statement in the phone call that 鈥渢hose who play with fire will eventually get burned,鈥� as the Chinese government quoted him, was seen as a direct reference to Speaker Pelosi鈥檚 much-discussed plan for a Taiwan stop.

Her official itinerary was to take in Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan. Assumptions she would make the Taiwan stop solidified after anonymous Taiwanese officials assured American media Monday that the speaker鈥檚 visit, including an overnight stay, was a done deal.

Hers is the highest-ranking visit of a U.S. official since former Speaker Newt Gingrich included Taiwan in an Asia mission in 1997.

Search for common ground

Yet even as tensions flared further this week 鈥� China warned Monday that its military would 鈥渘ot stand idly by鈥� at any provocation over Taiwan 鈥� some U.S.-China analysts say they are holding out for the Biden-Xi phone call鈥檚 calmer recognition of both sides鈥� interests in maintaining a relationship to carry the day.

鈥淏oth leaders approached their phone call from a position of domestic weakness, and that encourages both of them right now to find common ground if and when they can,鈥� says Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies鈥� China program in Washington.

Despite the tensions raised by the trip, which he describes as 鈥渉igh-risk, low return,鈥� Mr. Singleton says the two countries鈥� leaders appear to recognize that 鈥渢here is value in maintaining exchanges, including on issues where they very strongly disagree.鈥�

Others say the U.S. should give up any pretensions of a Cold War-style containment of a rising China and instead focus on 鈥渞esponsible competition鈥� with Beijing. Such a policy would require 鈥渃lear lines of communication and pragmatic diplomacy,鈥� says Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington.

Last week鈥檚 phone call, the fifth between the two leaders, was a welcome sign, he says, but insufficient given 鈥渢oday鈥檚 poor state of U.S.-China ties.鈥� He recommends a 鈥渕ultiday session鈥� to get relations on track.

For Mr. Singleton, one need look no further than the strong economic headwinds buffeting the two powers to pinpoint the primary motivation for both presidents to stabilize the bilateral relationship.

Mr. Xi faces a 鈥渟erious slowdown in China鈥檚 export-driven economy that is rippling throughout the country in many ways, from rising unemployment to housing,鈥� he says. 鈥淭his domestic weakness tied to the economy pertains to Joe Biden as well,鈥� he adds, citing high inflation, supply-chain disruptions, and other challenges 鈥� many of which have 鈥渞oots鈥� that 鈥済o back to China.鈥�

U.S.-China relations were already increasingly taut as the U.S. has responded to Beijing鈥檚 more belligerent and confrontational actions in China鈥檚 neighborhood by shifting to a more assertive and competitive stance of its own.

Then came Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine, which has some in the Biden administration warning that China might view Russia鈥檚 difficulty achieving its war aims as a lesson that it should move against Taiwan sooner rather than later.

The trip鈥檚 risks

Ms. Pelosi鈥檚 Asia trip was originally planned for April and widely expected then to include a Taiwan stop. The pandemic delayed the speaker鈥檚 travel to Congress鈥� August break 鈥� by which time the potential Taiwan visit had bloomed into a heated controversy.

The White House reportedly attempted to discourage it, while others warned of the bad precedent the speaker would set by appearing to bow to pressure from Beijing.

鈥淚f we can allow the Chinese to dictate who can visit Taiwan and who cannot, then we have already ceded Taiwan to the Chinese,鈥� said Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat whose own trip to Taiwan in April caused little uproar.

Even Mr. Gingrich, speaking last month at a conservative policy conference in Washington, said that while he disagreed with Speaker Pelosi聽on most things, 鈥渙n this one I think her instinct is right. I hope she sticks to her guns.鈥�

At the same time, many U.S.-China analysts said with tensions and suspicions between the two powers running so high, a trip to Taiwan by such a senior a leader would be particularly dangerous.

A trip right now 鈥� with Beijing questioning Washington鈥檚 commitment to the one-China policy, and Washington mulling the Ukraine war鈥檚 impact on China鈥檚 intentions toward Taiwan 鈥� could be the 鈥渟ingle spark [that] could ignite this combustible situation into a crisis,鈥� Bonnie Glaser, director of the German Marshall Fund鈥檚 Asia program, tweeted last week.

Others say the danger of a high-level U.S. visit to Taiwan is not so much that it risks setting off a big-power military confrontation right now, but that it deepens suspicions of the other鈥檚 intentions 鈥� suspicions which, if left unaddressed, could add to factors making future conflict more likely.

As Mr. Singleton at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies says, 鈥淏eijing is simply not convinced that this [Pelosi] trip does not constitute a change in U.S.-Taiwan policy.鈥�

What actions might Beijing take now? No one believes the visit could occur at this point without any response. Some experts believe the Chinese military鈥檚 announcement Monday聽of live-fire exercises some 80 miles off Taiwan鈥檚 coast could be a foretaste of heightened belligerence.

鈥淐hina stands at the ready and the Chinese People鈥檚 Liberation Army will never sit idly by,鈥� Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, told reporters in Beijing on Monday. 鈥淐hina will take resolute and vigorous countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.鈥�

Face-to-face meeting

Still, most think that the calmer approach to a tense relationship exhibited in the Biden-Xi phone call is likely to prevail.

Mr. Xi鈥檚 top priority is the Communist Party congress set for later this year at which he will seek (and very likely win) an unprecedented third term as party general secretary, some China experts say.

Moreover, Mr. Xi is pressing for a face-to-face meeting with Mr. Biden 鈥� perhaps at one of the Asian summits the two leaders are scheduled to attend this fall 鈥� as confirmation for his home audience that China is now on equal footing with the U.S.聽A crisis with the U.S. over Taiwan would at least unsettle those plans, they add.

Yet even after the heightened tensions over Ms. Pelosi鈥檚 Taiwan stop have eased, the hard work of developing a U.S.-China policy for the 21st century, including the Taiwan question, will remain, experts say.

The U.S. and China face an intensifying rivalry globally, Mr. Singleton says, 鈥渂ut it鈥檚 important we start taking the steps to ensure that rivals don鈥檛 become military adversaries.鈥� One of those steps, some argue, will be keeping communications open and encouraging cooperation where possible, so that the relationship isn鈥檛 reduced to confrontation.

As former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, the architect of America鈥檚 opening to China, said in a conversation last month with Intelligence Squared U.S., the U.S. has to start by 鈥渦nderstanding the permanence of China.鈥�

The nonagenarian statesman then said that while it is 鈥渋mportant to prevent Chinese or any other country鈥檚 hegemony,鈥� it is also critical to recognize that 鈥渢hat is not something that can be achieved by endless confrontations.鈥�