海角大神

Punish China over Hong Kong? Why Trump may pull his punches.

With the Trump administration considering additional measures aimed at pressuring China over its revision of Hong Kong鈥檚 semi-autonomous status, the White House has come to resemble a heavyweight boxing ring.

In one corner is the pugilistic trade and manufacturing policy adviser, Peter Navarro. In the other, the more conciliatory Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin.

Let鈥檚 use the moment to hit China hard and loosen our economic bonds with Beijing. American voters will love it! advises the team surrounding the hard-punching Mr. Navarro.

Not so fast! parries the more pragmatic Mr. Mnuchin.聽Actions that remind America that our boss is tough on China, sure 鈥� but let鈥檚 do nothing that risks weakening the economy further and harming the president鈥檚 prospects in November.

That little allegory illustrates the tight spot President Donald Trump finds himself in as he seeks to fulfill his pledge to punish China over its decision to impose a new security law on Hong Kong. Beijing鈥檚 move would upend guarantees that residents of the former British colony would have greater personal and political freedoms than those enjoyed on the mainland.

Actions that showcase a president playing tough with Beijing are likely to play well with an electorate that has turned increasingly negative on China over Mr. Trump鈥檚 presidency, surveys show. But with the economy already weak and with 40 million Americans out of work in the wake of the pandemic, the president can also ill afford to take any economic steps with China that risk slowing the arrival of a recovery in time for the November elections.

鈥淩hetorical cold war鈥�

鈥淭he angry battle over China has been going on in this White House from the beginning,鈥� says Harry Kazianis, an expert in China and U.S. national security issues at the Center for the National Interest in Washington. 鈥淐hina hawks like Peter Navarro and [national security adviser] Robert O鈥橞rien [are] pushing very much for a containment approach鈥� and a decoupling from the Chinese economy, with 鈥淢nuchin pushing a 鈥榗ompete but not confront鈥� approach to China.鈥�

But events this year 鈥� from the pandemic that originated in Wuhan, China, to the disappointing payoff for the United States so far from the phase one trade accord reached with China in January, and now Hong Kong 鈥� have struck the deciding blow, he adds.

鈥淏asically the Navarro-O鈥橞rien camp has won this debate, it鈥檚 pretty much over now,鈥� Mr. Kazianis says.

But he underscores that Mr. Trump鈥檚 reelection battle means that relations with China will devolve into a 鈥渞hetorical cold war鈥� that gives the president a popular punching bag while sidestepping any actions that could further weaken the economy.

鈥淭his president needs a foe, and they have found the bogeyman they need to blame problems on in China,鈥� he says.

President Trump announced on May 29 that China鈥檚 new security law gave him no choice but to eliminate the special status the U.S. granted Hong Kong after the United Kingdom returned the city-state to China in 1997. That would curtail special trade and investment arrangements with the island city.

Mr. Trump offered few concrete steps; however, he did announce the U.S. will pull out of the World Health Organization, which the administration has deemed to be beholden to Beijing. This prompted a sigh of relief on Wall Street, which had feared the president would cancel the China trade deal.

Economic relationship

But since last Friday鈥檚 announcement, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has signaled that more action will be forthcoming. The administration has decided to revoke the visas of Chinese students with ties to the Chinese military, and administration officials hint at sanctions targeting officials with a role in Hong Kong鈥檚 security.

Moreover, sanctions concerning Beijing鈥檚 treatment of Tibet and repression of China鈥檚 minority Muslim Uyghurs are also on the table. And Mr. Pompeo has confirmed that the administration is considering a special visa program for Hong Kongers seeking an alternative location to live and develop business interests.

On Wednesday, citing Britain鈥檚 鈥減rofound ties of history and friendship with the people of Hong Kong,鈥� Prime Minister Boris Johnson said nearly 3聽million Hong Kong residents would be granted a pathway to British citizenship.

The Trump administration is 鈥渢aking a look at鈥� the idea of a special visa program, 鈥渂ut we will not be limiting ourselves to things that impact Hong Kong, but also doing our best to deter China from continuing its efforts to deny freedom to peoples to whom they had previously promised them,鈥� Mr. Pompeo said in an online conversation with American Enterprise Institute foreign policy experts this week.

Yet what is striking about this list of actions is that none of them explicitly targets the U.S.-China economic relationship.

What this tells experts in U.S.-China policy is that even as China becomes that central bogeyman to the presidential campaign, White House worries over the economy 鈥� along with Mr. Trump鈥檚 desire to be able to cite the China trade deal as an accomplishment of his first term 鈥� will likely put off any action that could further disrupt ties to the world鈥檚 second-largest economy.

鈥淭he limits on U.S. actions might stem more from the politics within the administration itself than anything else,鈥� since 鈥渢he president鈥檚 advisers are quite sharply divided about the best course of action to take鈥� concerning economic relations with China, says Allen Carlson, an expert on Chinese politics and U.S.-China relations at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York.

鈥淭hat聽being said,鈥� he adds, 鈥渋t is not hard聽to see that tensions with China 鈥� as Trump and [presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe] Biden compete with each other over who will win the mantle of being China鈥檚 most vocal critic 鈥� will continue to rise over the spring and summer. This simply makes political sense.鈥�

As Mr. Navarro, the trade adviser, said last month on ABC News鈥� 鈥淭his Week,鈥� 鈥淚 do think this election is going to be a referendum in many ways on China.鈥�

Unrest in America

But if indeed there is to be a 鈥渞hetorical cold war鈥� between the two major powers in the months leading up to the U.S. elections, it won鈥檛 be a one-sided battle.

Already China 鈥� fortified by an increasingly assertive leader, Xi Jinping 鈥� is having a field day with the social unrest sweeping the U.S. in the wake of the police killing on Memorial Day of African American Minneapolis resident George Floyd.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying recently tweeted simply 鈥淚 can鈥檛 breathe鈥� 鈥� Mr. Floyd鈥檚 last words. That was followed by another tweet in which she highlighted U.S. 鈥渉ypocrisy鈥� for last year labeling Hong Kong protesters as 鈥渇reedom loving鈥� while now denouncing demonstrators on U.S. streets as 鈥渢hugs鈥� 鈥� a reference to Mr. Trump鈥檚 characterization on Twitter of U.S. protesters.

In the wake of the Hong Kong dispute, the Chinese government has also ordered state enterprises to curtail imports of U.S. products, including pork and soybeans 鈥� purchases that were already far behind the levels China agreed to in the trade deal.

Professor Carlson of Cornell says one factor that could weaken the public鈥檚 perception of the president as a China warrior is the mixed messaging that has emanated from the White House.

鈥淭rump has been less than a model of consistency when it comes to China,鈥� he says. 鈥淗e certainly talks tough about the country, but at the same time has frequently professed聽his admiration for Xi Jinping.鈥澛�

Professor Carlson recalls the president tweeting in the midst of last summer鈥檚 Hong Kong protests that he knew the Chinese leader to be a 鈥済ood man鈥� in a 鈥渢ough business.鈥�

Mr. Trump then added: 鈥淚 have ZERO doubt that if President Xi wants to quickly and humanely solve the Hong Kong problem, he can do it.鈥�