Collapse of diplomacy in Syria forces US to consider new options
The US and Russia are now so far apart on Syria that the US might need to take a harder line if it wants to influence events in Aleppo.
Workers from the Syrian Civil Defense group, known as the White Helmets, dig in the rubble to look for survivors after airstrikes hit Bustan al-Basha neighborhood in Aleppo, Syria.
Syrian Civil Defense White Helmets/AP
Washington
When President Obama threatened military strikes on Syrian government installations over chemical weapons in 2012, Russia took notice.
Intent on heading off a United States military intervention that could have weakened Moscow ally and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russian President Vladimir Putin hammered out a deal with Washington a year later that removed Syria鈥檚 chemical weapons stockpiles.
With US-Russia relations at their lowest state in decades, it will take a similar credible threat from Washington to get cooperation on Syria back on track, experts say. Something akin to the threat of US airstrikes, they say, would be needed to prompt any change in Russia鈥檚 objective of delivering the city of Aleppo to Mr. Assad.
The challenge is of timing and temperament. Mr. Obama has repeatedly refused to involve US forces in the Mideast more robustly, and even if he's had a change of heart, his administration is drawing to a close. Mr. Putin appears to recognize those facts and is pressing his advantage in Syria while it remains.
鈥淭he only way to get Russia鈥檚 attention at this point and 鈥� get the kind of results we want to see in Aleppo and in Syria more broadly would be a credible threat that the US would fully utilize its military capabilities,鈥� says Paul Saunders,聽executive director of the Center for the National Interest in Washington. 鈥淚t can鈥檛 be a bluff.鈥�
But those kinds of steps 鈥渄on鈥檛 seem to be on the table,鈥� adds Mr. Saunders. 鈥淥bama is not interested, the public is not interested 鈥� and I don鈥檛 think the Congress is too interested in seeing this, either.鈥�
Putin's play
On Monday, the Obama administration formally abandoned fruitless diplomatic efforts to rescue cooperation with Russia on Syria. Senior officials are meeting this week to consider next steps. Those meetings are expected to consider an array of possible ways to address the relentless siege of Aleppo by Syrian and Russian air forces, administration officials said.
But Obama seems unlikely to reverse course in the final months of his presidency, experts say. And Putin is counting on that.
鈥淲e鈥檒l see a lot of theater 鈥� drama, drama, drama 鈥� [from the US], but the bottom line is that the American administration is not going to go for anything of any consequence at this point 鈥� and Putin knows it,鈥� says Yezid Sayigh, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment鈥檚 Middle East Center in Beirut.聽The result will be 鈥渢he Russians hunkering down on their current plan of action鈥� 鈥� consolidating Assad鈥檚 hold on power 鈥� 鈥渦ntil a new administration comes in.鈥�
Some administration officials are said to be recommending cruise missile attacks to disable Syrian airfields and force a halt to the bombing of Aleppo. But Saunders says such limited steps, while they might feel good, would be unlikely to sway Putin and Russian behavior.
鈥淭he situation has become far too complex to be addressed by some cruise missile strikes on some airstrips,鈥� he says.
Syria could counter by transferring its aircraft to the Russian airbase in Syria, he adds.
鈥淚s the US really going to then take the next step and attack a Russian base in Syria?鈥� Saunders says.
No more carrots
Some analysts say American and Russian objectives in Syria are just too divergent to allow for a return to diplomacy any time soon. Others point out that diplomacy requires a certain degree of trust, and they add that it鈥檚 not just American trust in the Russians that has been shattered over the course of the siege of Aleppo.
鈥淚鈥檇 have to say that on both sides of the relationship, the levels of trust are at historic lows,鈥� says Saunders, comparing the current situation to the mid-1980s.聽鈥淧eople in the US have serious doubts about whether we should trust Moscow, but the same doubts run very high on the other side.鈥澛�
For example, Russian officials 鈥渟imply don鈥檛 believe [last month鈥檚] aerial attack on Syrian forces was the accident the US says it was,鈥� he says.
Diplomacy consists of both sticks and carrots, but without a willingness to employ the former, Obama is out of the latter, experts say.聽
鈥淭he US doesn鈥檛 have any more sweeteners to draw the Russians鈥� interest,鈥� says Mr. Sayigh of Carnegie.
He notes that Secretary of State John Kerry was able to draw Russia into the failed cease-fire after he offered US cooperation in going after Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, an extremist opposition group formerly called聽the Nusra Front. The move that didn鈥檛 sit well with other opposition groups the US favors. That was one of the last cards in the US deck.
鈥淎t this point, the US doesn鈥檛 have it in its power to offer the Russians anything in Syria that they would find worthwhile,鈥� Sayigh says. 鈥淭here just is nothing that will get the two [powers] back on track anytime soon.鈥�