America's new 'dual track' approach to Iran nuclear program
At first, the US said, the new push for sanctions on Iran was a rebuff of a fuel swap deal. But now, it says, both the sanctions and the deal should try to address the Iran nuclear program.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, flashes a victory sign before signing an agreement to ship most of Iran's enriched uranium to Turkey in a nuclear fuel swap deal, in Tehran, Monday. The US will take a new 'dual track' approach to addressing the Iran nuclear program.
Vahid Salemi/AP
Washington
The US appears to have switched its tune.
When it unveiled an accord among the big powers of the United Nations Security Council for new sanctions on Iran, the US said it was a rebuff of a deal reached this week by Turkey and Brazil for an Iran nuclear fuel swap.
But now, the Obama administration says, both sanctions and the fuel swap should be able to proceed: Both address aspects of Iran鈥檚 nuclear ambitions, although they take separate paths in doing that.
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The United States is hoping for as close to unanimity in the 15-member Security Council on Iran sanctions as possible. This means the support of smaller, nonaligned countries that have expressed sympathy for Iran鈥檚 position. Thus, the US is now following a dual-track approach to Iran diplomacy.
Susan Rice, US ambassador to the UN, said Wednesday that the sanctions resolution 鈥渉as nothing to do with鈥� the proposed fuel-swap deal, which she compared to a 鈥渃onfidence-building measure鈥� that the US and other powers proposed to Iran last fall.
In a statement on a telephone conversation Wednesday between President Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the White House said the president 鈥渁cknowledged the efforts of Turkey and Brazil.鈥� But Mr. Obama also informed the prime minister that negotiations on the new resolution 鈥渨ill continue鈥� because of 鈥渃oncerns about Iran鈥檚 overall nuclear program鈥� and its continuing failure to meet its 鈥渋nternational obligations.鈥�
The new tack amounts to an argument in favor of additional sanctions, some nuclear experts say, because it is saying that it鈥檚 the heat from all sides that is forcing Iran to respond to the international community.
The US dual track is really an argument that 鈥渋t鈥檚 only the continuing pressure that is making Iran agree to this fuel swap,鈥� says Ivan Oelrich, vice president of the strategic security program at the Federation of American Scientists in Washington.
鈥淲as Iran鈥檚 sole intention [in accepting the fuel swap] to derail sanctions?鈥� Mr. Oelrich adds. 鈥淚f that鈥檚 your judgment, then this [Turkish-Brazilian] proposal is not legitimate.鈥� But, he says, the US should accept the fuel-swap deal 鈥渁s a test鈥� of Iran鈥檚 intentions.
He says, 鈥淚t gets a bomb鈥檚 worth of fuel out of Iranian territory鈥� 鈥� low-enriched uranium that under current conditions in Iran would take a year to amass. If nothing else, he adds, 鈥淵ou鈥檝e added a year to the clock.鈥�
Both the US-proposed Security Council resolution and the Turkish-Brazilian fuel-swap deal would put new pressures on the regime in Tehran. Yet neither would force Iran鈥檚 nuclear program to grind to a halt. Iran says the nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but Western powers believe it is aimed at producing a nuclear weapon.
The proposed resolution of sanctions is aimed at making further nuclear progress by Iran increasingly costly and thus forcing Iran into serious diplomacy and transparency over its program. The fuel-swap deal, which would remove about half of Iran鈥檚 stockpile of low-enriched uranium to Turkey, is designed to reduce international tensions over Iran鈥檚 growing pile of fuel and thus to give diplomacy a chance.
The new resolution toughens existing international economic constraints on Iran in a number of ways:
鈥� Establishes a 鈥渇ramework鈥� for inspection of suspicious cargo ships, either on the high seas or in ports.
鈥� Sets new asset freezes and travel bans for individuals and companies linked to the Iranian revolutionary Guard Corps.
鈥� Expands an existing arms embargo to missiles, combat aircraft, and battle tanks.
鈥� Calls on financial institutions to block the transactions of Iranian banks that are considered under reasonable doubt to be related to banned activities and purchases 鈥� for example, of materials that could be used in the nuclear program.
The resolution as negotiated among the Security Council鈥檚 permanent members does not include a comprehensive arms embargo, which the US and France wanted. And it is devoid of any measures targeting Iran鈥檚 oil sector 鈥� measures the Chinese and Russians rejected.
The US and other members of the international community should have learned this week that Iran does respond to pressure, says Patrick Clawson, deputy director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Iran, he says, only accepted the Brazilian-Turkish plan after Tehran became convinced that a UN resolution was advancing.
Iran is seeing its 鈥渃ircle of diplomatic partners鈥� shrink, Mr. Clawson writes in a commentary on the week鈥檚 events. Whereas in past years Tehran tried to play the US and Europe off each other, the Iranians now have decreasing sway with the Russians and even the Chinese, he says.
But, he says, the basic challenge of Iran鈥檚 continuing will to enrich uranium remains unresolved. 鈥淣either the new [fuel-swap deal] nor the proposed sanctions address that matter directly,鈥� he says.
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