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Senate race: Will GOP bid to sideline tea party in Georgia work?

Tea party candidates might not even make it to a runoff in the GOP contest for an open US Senate seat in Georgia. Key reasons: limited war chests and opposition from establishment Republicans.  

The tea party got a big win in Nebraska's GOP Senate primary on Tuesday, but whether it can duplicate that in next week's GOP race for the open Senate seat in Georgia 鈥� the heart of tea party country 鈥� looks dubious.听

Two tea party-themed conservatives in the race 鈥� six-term US Rep. Phil Gingrey, an OB/GYN, and four-term US Rep. Paul Broun, an Athens, Ga., doctor 鈥� entered the race high in hopes. But a week before听Georgia voters head to the polls to choose the nominees, they're back in fourth and fifth places, running behind three "establishment" Republicans and just ahead of "undecided."

Why are the tea party candidates fading in the stretch? Lots of factors are in play, but analysts say the answer comes down to this: The GOP establishment, in a bid to ensure that an electable Republican makes it through to the general election, is fighting back.

As the tea party candidates struggle for purchase in their bids to replace retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R), current polls indicate they may not even make it to an expected runoff on July 22.听

Instead, two more-traditional-looking Republicans 鈥� millionaire David Perdue, a former Dollar General CEO and a cousin to former Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue (R), and US Rep. Jack Kingston, a former farm insurance salesman who ran on term limits and has now been in Washington for听21 years 鈥� have solid leads in the polls. Another mainstream Republican, former Secretary of State Karen Handle (who nearly won the governorship in 2010) has dared the Democrats to try to peg the 鈥渨ar on women鈥� meme on her campaign as she鈥檚 vaulted into third place, .

鈥淩epublicans have had a chance to win the majority [in the Senate] and instead they鈥檙e losing,鈥� says Jennifer Duffy, a senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Report. 鈥淔rankly, they鈥檙e tired of losing.鈥�

If the poll trends hold and the tea party candidates don鈥檛 qualify for an expected runoff, establishment Republicans will have 鈥渄odged a more serious bullet鈥� given the piecemeal support spread across so many candidates, says Ms. Duffy. 鈥淚f a tea party candidate makes the runoff, you鈥檇 see the tea party groups coalesce behind one candidate, and it would become a very different race. The objective has been to prevent Broun or Gingrey from making that runoff.鈥�

As happened in Nevada, Delaware, and Indiana in previous election cycles, nominating a firebrand conservative populist with narrow bona fides and quirky views could cause Republicans to lose a key seat in a year when the party is听within reach of grabbing the Senate majority. 听

The GOP establishment's pushback in Georgia started as a mere gear switch in the election machinery: moving Georgia鈥檚 primary day up to May 20 鈥� the earliest date ever down here in the 13th original colony. The move was part of a federal judge鈥檚 order, to allow more time for military overseas ballots to arrive in case of a July runoff.

But the decision by state GOP officials to agree to the change had an ulterior motive: Sliding up the primary date to a time when kids are still in school and the Georgia vacation season has not started, party insiders hoped, would increase turnout and dilute the clout of tea party vote-casters in the primary, who had yanked the Republican Party hard to the right in the 2010 and 2012 election cycles.

Those developments jibe with an emerging national picture of a tea party movement that, after helping to reinvigorate the Republican Party in the Obama era, has become hobbled by its embrace of flawed or extreme candidates. As the movement鈥檚 popularity wobbles, the Republican establishment is working to rebuff tea party insurgents in Georgia and elsewhere. The US Chamber of Commerce, for instance, is helping to fund Representative Kingston鈥檚 surging run.

While mainstream Republicans ignored the tea party in 2010 and tried to be friends in 2012, 鈥淸i]n 2014 they鈥檙e fighting back,鈥� Ms. Duffy told McClatchy Newspapers this week.

Polls and campaign contributions back that up. A new Marist Poll shows a wide gap in Georgia between the moderate GOP frontrunners and the two more-conservative candidates pushing for 鈥渓iberty and prosperity,鈥� as Representative Broun鈥檚 website puts it. Marist Poll director Lee Miringoff draws the conclusion that tea party influence is flagging, in part, because their candidates' war chests pale in comparison to those of the听front-runners.

For GOP insiders, the prospect of either Broun or Representative Gingrey advancing to a July runoff is anathema. Though popular among small-town voters in Georgia鈥檚 lake country, Broun has called the theory of evolution a 鈥渓ie from the pits of hell,鈥� and Gingrey, who has assisted on more than 5,000 births, called 鈥減artly right鈥� former US Rep. Todd Akin鈥檚 2012 remark that women鈥檚 bodies could shut down pregnancies after 鈥渓egitimate rape.鈥�

Meanwhile, Democrats aren't messing around. Front-runner Michelle Nunn, former Points of Light Foundation CEO and daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn (D) of Georgia, is campaigning as a rock-solid moderate. According to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released last weekend, she has a good shot to win a race against any of the Republican candidates.

As of Tuesday, statisticians at The New York Times鈥檚 Upfront blog rate the Georgia Senate race as 鈥渢oss-up,鈥� with the newspaper鈥檚 Josh Katz saying that designation 鈥渋s highly contingent on which Republican emerges from the primary next Tuesday.鈥�

According the Times鈥檚 statistical model, Ms. Nunn has a 73 percent chance of winning against Gingrey but only a 26 percent chance of beating Perdue.

Though the tea party candidates are flagging in this race, tea partyers' complaints still resonate in Georgia. Georgians disapprove of President Obama 鈥� long a tea party foil 鈥� by a large margin, and rock-solid majorities here tell pollsters that Washington Democrats are taking the country in the wrong direction.

Moreover, tea party candidates in other states, including Curt Clawson in Florida and Alex Mooney in West Virginia (both House races), have already won their primaries, suggesting that the movement鈥檚 struggle in Georgia could be localized.

A sizable share of Georgia voters see Broun and Gingrey as flawed candidates with narrow appeal, says听Merle Black, an Emory University professor and author of 鈥淭he Rise of Southern Republicans.鈥� 鈥淭he stereotype of a Georgia Republican is the most conservative person someone could imagine, and that鈥檚 not necessarily the case,鈥� he says.

More broadly, tea party conservatives in Georgia may be seeing some blowback to their considerable policy successes. Georgia's听tea party class of 2010 has forged ahead with its "pro Constitution" policies, focusing on expanding gun rights, introducing 海角大神 shield laws that allow some proprietors to refuse services to gay customers, and attacking Common Core educational standards as 鈥渇ederalizing鈥� Peach State schools.

While all that is going on, Georgia under the Republicans has, post-recession, struggled to live up to its reputation as the economic center of the Deep South, watching as states such as North Carolina and Tennessee challenge its primacy in high-tech, banking, and sports.

Despite the state鈥檚 geographic charms, Atlanta鈥檚 international reputation, and historically pro-business politics in the legislature, the percentage of Georgians who want to leave the state was ranked as 鈥渁bove average,鈥� according to a recent Gallup poll. That's higher than any of the immediate neighbors of the Empire State of the South.

鈥淩epublicans now control everything in Georgia 鈥� so increasingly Georgia Republicans are seen as the party of government, and are being increasingly evaluated on their performance in government,鈥� says Professor Black. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 a major shift.鈥�

But more central than the establishment-versus-tea-party paradigm, says Black, is the fact that the GOP Senate front-runners 鈥� Nunn and Perdue 鈥� are both political neophytes. That fact, he adds, 鈥渟ays something about the voters鈥� assessment of people who have been in office.鈥�