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Could Christine O鈥橠onnell actually win in November?

Democrats dismiss 'tea party' favorite Christine O鈥橠onnell, now the GOP Senate nominee, at their peril, say Delaware political observers.

As soon as Christine O鈥橠onnell won the Republican Senate primary in Delaware, the pundits pretty much wrote her off as unelectable in November.

Ms. O鈥橠onnell is too conservative, too 鈥渢ea party,鈥� for a Democratic-leaning state like Delaware, they said. She has a sketchy financial past, including a mortgage default and allegations of unpaid loans and taxes. She reported just $5,800 in earned income between March 2009 and July 2010, according to a Senate financial disclosure form. Her professional background is also eyebrow-raising, at least outside conservative circles. During the 1990s, she worked for a pro-abstinence group and equated masturbation with adultery.

But remember: She has now proven she can win a race. She defeated Rep. Mike Castle (R) 鈥� as seasoned a politician as they come, well-known and well-liked statewide.

Yes, it was the Republican primary in a state where the GOP has many fewer registrants than the Democrats. In the general election on Nov. 2, the tilted playing field and more typical candidate profile of the Democratic nominee, New Castle County executive Chris Coons, makes him the heavy favorite to win Vice President Biden鈥檚 old Senate seat.

But Mr. Coons and the Democrats dismiss O鈥橠onnell at their peril, say Delaware political observers.

鈥淭here鈥檚 an assumption that [O鈥橠onnell鈥檚] no more viable as a candidate than she was in the primary contest with Castle, and look where that ended up,鈥� writes Joseph Pika, a political scientist at the University of Delaware in Newark, in an e-mail. 鈥淏y all conventional political measures, she should not win, but this is not a conventional political year. Several conditions had to break her way to win the primary and I, among others, did not think they would all break her way 鈥� but they did.鈥�

鈥�Democrats could be overconfident,鈥� he continues. 鈥淒emocrats could be overaggressive 鈥� she could quickly become a more sympathetic candidate if everyone seems to pile on. If Democrats seem to practice politics as usual 鈥� be seen as committing character assassination, for example 鈥� they could confirm the basic appeal she has of challenging the establishment and 鈥榩olitics as usual.鈥� 鈥�

But, Mr. Pika notes, O鈥橠onnell is untested in a traditional campaign involving close scrutiny and sustained give and take. 鈥淗er qualifications for office are sketchy, at best, and the extra time [six weeks] will probably stress the questions about her background,鈥� he writes. 鈥淪he ran an insurgent鈥檚 campaign based largely on emotion and volunteers. That might be sufficient in Delaware [for victory] but probably not.鈥�

Wilmington, Del., broadcaster Allan Loudell also suggests that Democrats need to take O鈥橠onnell seriously heading into November, despite the political handicappers鈥� dismissal of her chances.

鈥淪he's become a much more polished candidate,鈥� writes Allan Loudell of WDEL-AM radio . 鈥淚f you throw the kitchen-sink at her (as the Castle campaign and the Republican establishment did), O'Donnell will accuse you of the 鈥榩olitics of destruction.鈥� 鈥�

Mr. Loudell notes that that phrase is a throwback to Hillary Rodham Clinton (from her days as first lady) and, he writes, it suggests that 鈥渨hile O'Donnell will not betray her followers by trying to shift her ideological views, she WILL make a subtle play for the votes of women beyond her base. If the anti-O'Donnell forces pile on, she'll play victim. You watch.鈥�

the day before Tuesday's primary, O鈥橠onnell spoke positively of Clinton 鈥渋n the context of female solidarity and empowerment,鈥� Loudell writes. 鈥淎 deft move.鈥�

The tea party movement boasts many high-profile women, including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R) of Minnesota, and Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle. And even though the for congressional and gubernatorial seats than the Democrats, the imbalance is smaller than usual, and so 2010 has the feel of a 鈥�GOP Year of the Woman.鈥� Ms. Angle鈥檚 continuing competitiveness against Senate majority leader Harry Reid (D) of Nevada, even after being ridiculed nationally for her unorthodox views, provides more evidence that O鈥橠onnell cannot be dismissed out of hand.

Of course, Nevada is more of a swing state than Delaware, and Senator Reid is deeply unpopular at home, but there鈥檚 already ample evidence that this is an unusual year. Just ask Sen. Scott Brown (R) of Massachusetts.