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The most important governor's race? Why top politicians are flocking to Ohio.

The party that controls the Ohio governor's mansion can have an impact on presidential elections, so the race is seeing a jolt of high-profile endorsements as the candidates try to place blame over the state's job losses.

Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland speaks to supporters during a campaign stop in Dayton, Ohio, on August 6.

Matt Sullivan/Reuters

September 9, 2010

The Ohio governor's race is shaping up as a bellwether for the 2012 presidential election and a high-stakes referendum on which party can be trusted on the economy in a state that has lost 400,000 jobs in the last three years.

Just note the top-gun politicians stumping for embattled Gov. Ted Strickland (D) or the international press corps trailing both his campaign and that of former Rep. John Kasich, his Republican rival. This week Vice President Joe Biden linked arms with Governor Strickland as he led the Labor Day Parade in Toledo. In Cleveland to unveil an economic recovery plan on Wednesday, President Obama called Strickland 鈥渙ne of the finest governors in this country.鈥

Next week, President Clinton is due in Ohio to campaign with Strickland, now trailing by 8 to 12 points, according to recent polls. The former president, still highly popular in Ohio, plans to headline rallies and fundraisers to coincide with the first debate between the candidates on Sept. 14. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R), Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels (R) have been to the state in support of Kasich.

Just two years before a presidential election, which party controls the governor鈥檚 mansion 鈥 bully pulpit and state bureaucracy 鈥 can have an impact beyond the state. 鈥淲e take care of Ohio and we鈥檒l have a big voice in who will be the next president of the United States,鈥 said Kasich at a campaign rally outside the (1837) Spread Eagle Tavern in Hanoverton, Ohio, on Wednesday evening.

At the same time, Kasich is running campaign ads criticizing Strickland for the same claim: The ad, 鈥淪top Strickland. Stop Obama,鈥 includes a June 1 clip of Strickland saying, 鈥淲hoever wins the governor鈥檚 race in 2010 will be well positioned to help carry Ohio and influence the presidential election in 2012.鈥

Such claims may be 鈥渃onfusing convenience with effectiveness,鈥 says Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia who tracks national and governor鈥檚 races. 鈥淵ou go into a state, all the rallies are organized for you, there are cheering crowds, and it looks like there is an unstoppable machine to put the electoral votes in your column,鈥 he says. 鈥淎ll those things are true, but that鈥檚 not how people vote.鈥

The dominant issue for voters in this race is who is responsible for the state鈥檚 stunning job loss 鈥 and starkly different visions for how to change direction and rebuild the economy. Ohio's unemployment rate was at 10.3 percent in July, according to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. The Republican Governors Association is funding ads claiming that 400,000 jobs were lost on Strickland鈥檚 watch.

(In fact, the state began losing jobs in 2000, including seven years when Republicans held the governor鈥檚 office and both houses of the legislature 鈥 but at a slower rate. Ohio has lost more than 568,300 jobs since 2000, including 403,800 in the manufacturing sector, according to PolitiFact Ohio and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.)

It鈥檚 an issue facing both Republican and Democratic incumbents in this campaign cycle 鈥 the typical response is to blame global factors beyond their control 鈥 but it鈥檚 especially acute in Ohio.

"Strickland鈥檚 biggest challenge has been the economy and the loss of 400,000 jobs, many of which went to other states as opposed to being moved overseas,鈥 concludes the Cook Political Report. 鈥淥hio鈥檚 economy was hit by the recession early and while Democrats claim signs of recovery, the economic problems seem intractable.鈥

As governor, Strickland cut both personal income taxes and business taxes, making Ohio one of only two states without a general tax on corporate profits or personal property used for business. He also reduced the size of state government in response to the state鈥檚 fiscal crisis. His campaign is using the same template to attack Kasich that Pennsylvania Democrat Mark Critz successfully used to defeat Republican businessman Tim Burns in a high-profile special election last spring in Pennsylvania's 12th district: Attack the rival鈥檚 record on outsourcing jobs 鈥 a flashpoint in many old industrial regions.

After retiring from the US House of Representatives in 2000, Kasich joined Lehman Brothers, where he served as managing director of the investment banking firm鈥檚 Columbus division. Kasich also gained national exposure as a commentator for Fox News Channel, stepping down in 2007. He is proposing ending the income tax in Ohio altogether and focusing business talent on rebuilding the state economy. He is also proposing firing the state's economic development bureaucracy and privatizing that function.

鈥淲e need people in politics who have spent time in business so we can create jobs,鈥 he told a rally of some 300 supporters in Hanoverton. 鈥Texas is growing all the jobs in America, because they understand the formula鈥 low taxes are a ticket to economic growth and innovation,鈥 he said. 鈥淚n order to reduce these taxes, you have to reduce government.鈥

Strickland launched his television ad campaign attacking Kasich first for voting for the NAFTA free trade pact as a member of Congress, then making millions at Lehman Brothers, the investment firm whose collapse in 2008 triggered the financial crisis. Together these signal that Kasich can't understand the eneds of struggling Ohians, the ad said. That theme has persisted throughout the campaign.

Kasich calls the campaign on his Lehman record a 鈥渄iversionary tactic鈥 in comments to reporters after the rally. 鈥淲hen you have lost 400,000 jobs, you want to change the subject, and I鈥檓 not going there.鈥