海角大神

With trust in US wavering, NATO allies meet in Brussels and Munich to forge new ties

At the entrance to NATO headquarters, a mangled steel beam from the 107th floor of the World Trade Center鈥檚 north tower memorializes the 9/11 attack on the United States. An accompanying plaque notes that within 24 hours, NATO had invoked the alliance鈥檚 mutual defense clause for the first time in its history, going to war on behalf of the U.S.

But at a gathering for top NATO defense officials here this week, messages of transatlantic unity were muted as European allies come to terms with the Trump-driven reality that they must now take charge of their own defense.

In Brussels earlier this week, there was lots of talk of 鈥渟tepping up鈥� as America鈥檚 NATO allies detailed moves to increase the supply of weapons, untangle logistical knots, and bring more bullets and missiles to Ukraine鈥檚 battlefields.

These efforts are bearing fruit: Though the U.S. has almost completely withdrawn direct aid to Ukraine, Europe has come together to fill the gap, according to a released Wednesday from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

NATO officials also announced a new mission to beef up security in the Arctic 鈥� a move widely seen as a way to appease President Donald Trump鈥檚 demands for control of Greenland, given his reluctance to rule out using military force to get it.

鈥淏asically, it鈥檚 important that we collectively understand that [Mr. Trump] has a big point here,鈥� NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said at a press briefing here Wednesday. Mr. Rutte has praised President Trump as the catalyst who has forced NATO members to boost their defense budget contributions to meet or exceed the 2% GDP target and commit to 5% by 2035.

Despite cooperative appearances, underlying alliance tensions are expected to follow U.S. and European defense officials to Friday鈥檚 Munich Security Conference 鈥� where top Democrats like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hope to reassure European allies that Mr. Trump鈥檚 opponents see a more effective and collaborative way forward.聽U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is leading a large delegation and is expected to adopt a more reassuring tone while still defending administration policy.聽

Still, there鈥檚 a prevailing mood within the alliance that some security analysts liken to a married couple 鈥渃oming to terms with the fact that your partner may not love you anymore,鈥� says Nathalie Tocci, a professor at Johns Hopkins University鈥檚 School of Advanced International Studies in Europe.

Some NATO members are grappling with trust issues, she adds. She and others tick off President Trump鈥檚 red-carpet reception of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last summer; Mr. Trump鈥檚 comments minimizing the contributions of NATO allies fighting in Afghanistan, setting off protests last month in Denmark (which had the highest per capita casualty rate of any of America鈥檚 NATO allies there); and his Oval Office berating of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy one year ago.

鈥淭he time will come to reconstitute a different, healthier relationship,鈥� adds Professor Tocci, who has also served as special adviser to two European Union high representatives for foreign policy.

鈥淏ut you probably need a moment of distance before you can become good friends again.鈥�

Hegseth out, 鈥淭rump whisperer鈥� in

Against this backdrop, Secretary-General Rutte was asked Wednesday if U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth鈥檚 absence from this week鈥檚 NATO meeting of defense ministers 鈥� with Elbridge Colby, undersecretary of defense for policy attending instead 鈥� signals a decline in the U.S. commitment to the alliance.

Mr. Colby was a telling choice as the proxy, some analysts said: He has argued that 鈥淲e have to choose Asia鈥� when prioritizing U.S. military resources, because of the threat from China.

It鈥檚 a policy outlook embodied in America鈥檚 new National Defense Strategy鈥檚 assessment of Russia as a 鈥減ersistent but manageable threat to NATO鈥檚 eastern members.鈥� The report notably did not characterize Moscow as a threat to the U.S. or to the alliance writ large,聽analysts pointed out.

Mr. Rutte welcomed Mr. Colby to NATO headquarters on Thursday with the sort of rhetorical largesse that has earned him the sobriquet 鈥淭rump whisperer鈥� within the alliance.

The defense undersecretary 鈥渉as been a consistent force over the years for Europe and Canada to really step up when it comes to defense spending,鈥� Mr. Rutte said. The U.S., while a stalwart NATO ally, 鈥渁lso has to take care of the situation in the Pacific,鈥� he added.

Mr. Colby, for his part, lauded the 鈥渇lexible realism鈥� of his administration鈥檚 new聽National Defense Strategy, for its insistence on an alliance 鈥渂ased on partnership rather than dependency鈥� and a Europe 鈥渢hat leads鈥� NATO鈥檚 conventional defense.

The U.S. will continue to provide for Europe under its umbrella of nuclear deterrence, he added.

Arctic Sentry and NATO鈥檚 mission

The prospect of Russian forces inching closer to American territory does, however, get the Trump administration鈥檚 attention. This was part of the logic behind the Wednesday launch of Arctic Sentry, a NATO military officer said on condition of anonymity. The mission will bring regional drills under a single NATO command to counter Russian and Chinese influence in what NATO officials call 鈥渙ne of the world鈥檚 most strategically significant鈥� regions.

If Russian submarines pass undetected through the naval choke point formed by the islands of Britain, Iceland, and Greenland (known as the GIUK gap) and into the deep, open Atlantic, they become much harder to detect.

鈥淚t becomes very difficult to track those submarines out there,鈥� the NATO military officer added. 鈥淭hose submarines then pose a very existential threat to the United States 鈥� and also to NATO 鈥� because we鈥檙e talking about nuclear-capable vessels.鈥�

Others viewed the new Arctic mission merely as a rebranding of NATO鈥檚 existing security work in the region. Some reporters pointed out that studies show no Chinese ships lurking near Greenland; NATO officials countered that there soon could be, given the rate at which Arctic ice is melting.

How Ukraine factors in

For now, despite alliance tensions, NATO officials highlight how quickly European members are stepping up to fill the security gap on the continent as the U.S. steps back.

By 2029, for example, Germany will spend $181 billion on defense, more than double what it spent in 2021, Mr. Rutte pointed out Wednesday, adding that it is one example among many.

He also touted this week鈥檚 transfer of two top NATO commands from American to European officers and lauded NATO鈥檚 newest fund for providing weapons to Kyiv in its fight against Russia鈥檚 invasion four years ago this month.

Launched after a July meeting between Mr. Rutte and Mr. Trump, the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) encourages allies to buy weapons from the U.S. for Ukraine.

These weapons are still in short supply as Kyiv comes under increasing fire from Moscow and struggles with desertions among exhausted troops. Russia launched 55,000 drone attacks against Ukraine in 2025, a fivefold increase over the previous year, according to a senior NATO official, who offered background on condition of anonymity. The official added Wednesday that civilian casualties in Ukraine are up 30% over 2024.

Still, while some two-thirds of NATO鈥檚 32 members have committed to joining PURL, others are holding back 鈥� a decision that reflects not just budgetary concerns, but also tensions in the transatlantic relationship, analysts say.

France has not contributed to the fund, arguing that it 鈥渃annot justify using French taxpayer dollars to buy American weapons while also pushing for Europe鈥檚 strategic autonomy,鈥� notes a Chatham House聽.

Such concerns come amid speculation by some European diplomats and NATO officials that the U.S. may be downsizing its troop levels in Europe, which have hovered between 75,000 and 105,000 since 2022. The U.S. president last week signaled that those levels would remain steady. Still, the transatlantic relationship remains unlikely to return to the historical status quo, many analysts say, even after the Trump administration ends.

鈥淲e know the old order,鈥� Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned last month, 鈥渋s not coming back.鈥�