海角大神

Marco Rubio crafts conservative argument for immigration reform. Will it sell?

GOP Sen. Marco Rubio is out front as the 'gang of 8' releases its immigration reform plan. The move puts him toe to toe with conservative talk-show hosts and could make or break a presidential run in 2016.

With the Senate鈥檚 鈥済ang of 8鈥� releasing the legislative text of their immigration reform compromise early Wednesday morning, Sen. Marco Rubio (R) of Florida听is more on the spot than ever.

Even as Senator Rubio and his colleagues in the immigration听gang听debated exactly what would be in the bill, the charismatic freshman lawmaker of Cuban heritage went on a PR blitz, putting himself in the line of fire of conservative radio hosts who sneer听at听听鈥渁mnesty鈥� as if it听were听a four-letter word and appearing on no fewer than seven political talk shows last Sunday.

Now, Rubio has an actual bill to defend 鈥撎齛nd initial comments from him and his office lay out how he plans to win over weary conservatives while keeping his 2016 presidential prospects bright.听

听First, Rubio has craftily dispatched with the complaint that the Senate bill is tantamount to an 鈥渁mnesty鈥� for illegal immigrants.

鈥淣o one gets amnesty,鈥� says a fact sheet from Rubio鈥檚 office, issued alongside his comments on the bill. 鈥淯nless we continue to do nothing, this bill will eliminate today鈥檚 status quo, de facto amnesty.鈥�

That 鈥渄e facto amnesty鈥� is a key part of Rubio鈥檚 critique and sits at the heart of his argument to conservative audiences: Today, the lack of border security and immigration enforcement effectively lets the government to look the other way on illegal immigration,听while local governments bear the burden.

鈥淭he reality is that today鈥檚 de facto amnesty already costs taxpayers,鈥� Rubio鈥檚 office argues. 鈥淥ur local communities see this firsthand through their overburdened school and health systems, as well as taxes that are going unpaid because employers and workers choose to work under the table.鈥�

Second, Rubio argues that the bill鈥檚 security provisions will give conservatives what they have long sought: secure borders largely impermeable to would-be migrants.

鈥淭he security triggers are not left at the discretion of politicians with agendas,鈥� the Rubio fact sheet reads. 鈥淩eal measurable results must be achieved, and politicians cannot override them.鈥�

Later, Rubio makes an argument for immigration reform along law-and-order lines traditionally favored by conservatives: By allowing otherwise law-abiding people to come forward, the US can focus its immigration enforcement resources on criminals such as drug dealers and human traffickers.

Third, Rubio vows that Republican concerns about a massive bill getting jammed through Congress (as they believe Democrats did with President Obama鈥檚 health-care law) have been heard by the immigration reformers.

Rubio foresees that the immigration reform proposal will receive weeks of debate, hearings, and amendments in the Senate Judiciary Committee and a similar amount of time on the floor of the US Senate.

He also cites a few plums to conservative audiences. The bill, he argues, constitutes a 鈥減artial repeal of ObamaCare,鈥� in that it would bar newly documented immigrants from accessing the coverage provided under the health-care law. Likewise, the legislation avoids the ire of social conservatives in that it does not recognize LGBT relationships as a basis for immigration decisions, as does听the Uniting Families Act favored by Democrats in both chambers.

Will that fly in the Senate? With heavy support from Democrats and a handful of Republicans on board, the measure looks as if it has the votes to survive a 60-vote threshold imposed by a filibuster.

However, Rubio鈥檚 opponents on the right and in the low-immigration movement are just now beginning to mobilize.

Criticism on the right of the immigration reform drive has been driven largely by one man, Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) of Alabama. Now that the bill is released, conservative opponents will be able to find the 鈥渄eath-panel-type stuff,鈥� the parts that conservatives see as both odious policy and politically spinnable,听says Mark Krikorian, director of the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates relatively low immigration levels.

As the bill makes its way through the committee and floor debate that Rubio has sworn to protect, 鈥測ou鈥檙e going to see more senators piling on" to oppose the bill, Mr. Krikorian says.

Rubio will need to sway not only some of those senators, but also powerful outside groups such as Numbers USA, a low-immigration advocacy organization that views the bill as inflicting pain on American workers.

Roy Beck, Numbers USA鈥檚 chief, doesn鈥檛 think much of Rubio鈥檚 argument regarding today鈥檚 鈥渄e facto amnesty.鈥�

While acknowledging the bill鈥檚 restrictions on government support programs for the newly legalized, Mr. Beck says that in the long run, these people will become citizens and will qualify for government support.

鈥淭he status quo is much, much cheaper than the real amnesty," he adds.

Beck's organization is already airing advertisements against Republican senators who back the measures, such as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina. He says his private conversations with Republicans make him optimistic that proponents of the immigration bill won鈥檛 get the 60 votes needed to pass it.

Regardless of whether it passes, Rubio's support for the immigration reform package will come back to haunt him in any presidential run, Beck says.听鈥淚f Rubio sticks with this bill, I don鈥檛 think primary voters will ever forgive him,鈥� he says.

And don鈥檛 expect Democrats to come running to the defense of a potential 2016 presidential contender.

When the Washington Post鈥檚 Chris Cillizza asked Democratic National Committee Chairman Debbie Wasserman Schultz on MSNBC on Monday whether Rubio deserves kudos from Democrats for his work on immigration reform, she dodged.听

鈥淵ou know, the credit that is deserved is that we're making progress. There are a gang of eight bipartisan senators who have gotten together. There's also a similar group in the House of Representatives,鈥� said Representative Wasserman Schultz, of Florida. 鈥淭his is finally an issue that Republicans have decided 鈥撎齠or, I think, probably political reasons more than anything else, but I'm glad they're at the table 鈥撎齮hat it's time that we make some progress and that we have to get past this issue.鈥�