海角大神

Amid dire climate warnings, blue state pledges carry new weight

Last month, a major new climate commitment came out of the United States: a pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.

It鈥檚 the sort of commitment that scientists say is increasingly necessary if the world wants to avoid the most severe repercussions of global warming.

And it involved a major economy 鈥� the world鈥檚 fifth largest 鈥� but not the federal government.

Instead, it was California Gov. Jerry Brown who signed the executive order, in advance of the Global Climate Action Summit in San Francisco in mid-September.

As a major new climate report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underscores the need for transformational action, many experts have criticized the United States for its lack of action and for its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement commitments.

But below the federal level, states, cities, and companies are stepping into that leadership void in groundbreaking ways.聽 of US states and Puerto Rico have pledged to reduce their climate emissions in keeping with the Paris agreement guidelines. More than 3,500 entities 鈥� states, cities, businesses, and other institutions 鈥� have joined the coalition, also pledging to support climate action to meet Paris commitments. It鈥檚 a group that represents almost 60 percent of US gross domestic product. If it were a country, it would be the world鈥檚 third-biggest economy.

The action, say experts, is encouraging. But it may not be enough.

Since President Trump announced he planned to withdraw from Paris more than a year ago, Nathan Hultman says he鈥檚 been 鈥渂oth surprised and heartened by the amount of engagement that we have seen in this country by an extraordinarily diverse set of actors at different kinds of organizational levels.鈥�

鈥淭here has been a kind of grassroots momentum and an embracing of the opportunities for fast action on clean energy that do deliver change that we want,鈥� says Dr. Hultman, director of the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland, and a key author of聽 put out by Bloomberg Philanthropies that looks at climate action by states, cities, and businesses. At the same time, he cautions, 鈥淚t can鈥檛 be just a half or two-thirds of the states in the US carrying all the burden for the next 20 years. We can鈥檛 get there from here if we have partial engagement.鈥�

The Bloomberg report, 鈥淔ulfilling America鈥檚 Pledge,鈥� looked at the actions taken by the entities in the 鈥淲e Are Still In鈥� network, as well as actions that could feasibly be taken if states, cities, and companies were to increase their climate engagement. Currently, the authors determined, the US is about halfway to its Paris Agreement target of a 26 to 28 percent emissions reduction by 2025, compared with 2005 levels. A continuation of the current commitments would get the US to about a 17 percent reduction by 2025: roughly two-thirds of the way there. A 鈥減lausible best-case scenario,鈥� with more states diving in and adopting more of the best climate strategies, could get the US to a 24 percent reduction by 2025, says Hultman.

Can California lead the charge?

Of the governments committing to climate action, California is the main driver, both in its size and its ambition.

It鈥檚 the largest economy to have made a commitment to carbon neutrality, which has said the whole world needs to achieve by 2050 if it wants to avoid warming of more than 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels. 聽

鈥淐alifornia is in the interesting situation of exploring the path to deep decarbonization,鈥� says Danny Cullenward, an energy economist and policy director of Near Zero, a nonprofit that analyzes ways to quickly cut greenhouse gas emissions with a focus on California.

Its efforts, he says, could ripple far beyond the state.

鈥淭he process of planning and thinking through really radical transformations in the energy sector is a process everyone is going to have to go through,鈥� says Mr. Cullenward. The work that happens at the regional level, he adds, could inform broader national efforts.

For instance, California鈥檚 efforts to achieve 100 percent clean electricity by 2045, as pledged in a new law signed by Governor Brown, is 鈥済oing to set up a real planning process to start talking about how we transition the grid,鈥� Cullenward says.

California鈥檚 effort to regulate vehicle emissions could become template for other states if they survive challenges legal challenges posed by the Trump administration.

Not everyone is happy that California is so aggressive in pursuing its own climate agenda. Carol Seperas, a retired insurance agent in Sacramento, Calif., says she worries Brown鈥檚 carbon-neutral pledge could hurt the state鈥檚 economy.

鈥淚t鈥檚 overregulation, and I鈥檓 concerned that as time goes by, we鈥檒l fall behind because other states aren鈥檛 doing the same thing,鈥� says Ms. Separas, who tends to vote Republican. At the same time, she says, 鈥減eople who don鈥檛 live here don鈥檛 understand what California has to deal with in terms of its population, how fast we鈥檙e growing, the number of cars on the road. So we have to make sure we do what鈥檚 right for the environment 鈥� within reason.鈥�

California, though, is not alone in taking action. The states that make up the US Climate Alliance include Colorado, Virginia, and Minnesota, notes Dan Lashof, US director for the World Resources Institute (WRI). 鈥淚t鈥檚 not just the coastal dark blue states,鈥� he says.

Will state-led action be enough?

Many experts say that, while the actions of individual states and cities may not be enough on their own, especially in light of the new IPCC report emphasizing the need to keep warming below 1.5 degrees C, they鈥檙e often the testing ground for strategies that can work at a larger scale.

鈥淭he early movers create momentum that鈥檚 far beyond their own direct impact,鈥� says Derek Walker, vice president of US climate for the Environmental Defense Fund. Cities, for instance are 鈥渁t the roll-up-your-sleeves and get-things-done-on-the-ground level,鈥� says Mr. Walker. 鈥淐ity actions can be hugely transformational.鈥�

And as more states and cities and companies spearhead climate solutions, often at the behest of voters or customers, the success they find can be catalytic, he says.

鈥淭here鈥檚 not much ground to stand on anymore to say that there aren鈥檛 solutions. When even big companies are saying this is going to be good for our bottom line, there鈥檚 less and less solid ground to stand on to be against progress,鈥� says Walker. 鈥淚t doesn鈥檛 even need to be about the science for people out in real America to get behind it, because people are seeing [the effects of climate change] with their own eyes and feeling it with their hands, whether that鈥檚 a farmer, whether it鈥檚 someone that owns property that鈥檚 been damaged by a storm.鈥�

Some individuals, too, say they鈥檙e happy to be seeing action at any level, even if they wish more was happening at the federal level. 鈥淚鈥檓 very proud of my state for being part of it,鈥� says Elizabeth Derderian, a practice support specialist at the Boston Medical Center, of Massachusetts鈥檚 pledge to meet Paris targets.

鈥淚t really should be the federal government doing it, but it鈥檚 not happening, so someone has to do it,鈥� she says.鈥滺ey, if you鈥檙e going to drown in a small room or in an enclosed space, which is basically what鈥檚 happening right now, even tossing a salad bowl of water out is going to help you more than not doing anything.鈥�

Experts agree. The contributions of states and cities is meaningful, 鈥渂ut it鈥檚 nowhere near enough,鈥� says Lashof of WRI. 鈥淎nd in fact, what the latest IPCC report shows is that we should be accelerating US emission reductions, going well beyond the existing pledge, not struggling to get most of the way there. Having the federal government not only not helping, but pushing in the wrong direction, is a huge problem and it gets bigger over time.鈥�

What those smaller actions do is provide hope, say Lashof and others, that the answers exist and huge technological progress is being made. Where solar cells once cost about $300 a watt, they now cost $0.37 a watt, notes Lashof. 鈥淭here are examples of most of the solutions we need that are being implemented in various locations. The problem is that they鈥檙e not being implemented universally, at the scale that鈥檚 really needed given the urgency underlined by the IPCC.鈥�

Elena Weissmann and Martin Kuz contributed to this report from Boston and Sacramento, Calif.