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Wall Street's scariest day? April 27. Why? A press briefing.

April 27 is when Fed Chairman Bernanke gives his first-ever press briefing after the central bank's monetary policy decision. If he signals a change in policy, markets could swing wildly.

By John Melloy, Executive Producer, Fast Money

Traders are saying the scariest moment of the second quarter will be on April 27, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold the first ever press briefing following a monetary policy decision by the central bank.

This change in the Fed鈥檚 communication with the markets alone is enough to give investors the jitters, but the nervousness is compounded by the anticipation of a signal by the Fed chief as to whether the quantitative easing that has fueled this bull market will continue past its stated end date in June.

鈥淚 think Bernanke wants to continue to 鈥楺E3,鈥� but the rest of the Fed does not, and if he has to admit that on the air, it could be the turn,鈥� said Steve Cortes, founder of research firm Veracruz LLC.
as the first quarter came to a close. Two weeks ago U.S. stocks looked like they were headed for a correction as , and weak consumer and employment data in the U.S. combined to bring the bears out in force.

But just like every time during this teflon two-year bull market, the bearishness could not even result in a normal 10-percent correction. After a seven-percent pullback in the S&P 500, the market is back near its highs.

The momentum and durability of this bull market can be traced back to a single event that took place at the end of last August, investors said, when Bernanke first signaled that a second round of quantitative easing was likely coming.

鈥淚 believe that additional purchases of longer-term securities, should the FOMC choose to undertake them, would be effective in further easing financial conditions,鈥� said Bernanke, in a speech at the Fed鈥檚 Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Aug. 27. In November, the central bank would formally announce plans to purchase $600 billion in long-term Treasury securities by the end of June 2011.

The S&P 500 is up more than 25 percent since that Jackson Hole speech as the second round of easy money inflated asset prices and pushed investors to take more risk. The fate of this program, and the possibility of a third such asset-purchase plan, could be signaled at the April 27 briefing.

鈥淚 would anticipate a giant ramp up in volatility ahead of this press conference,鈥� said Jon Najarian, co-founder of TradeMonster.com. 鈥淭raders react to one word removed from a paragraph in the policy statement and now he鈥檚 going to hold a press conference?鈥�

To be sure, while just about every trader will acknowledge the added liquidity has played a hand in the bull market, many still see it continuing on when it ends. They cite the improvement in company earnings and the money still on the sidelines following the credit crisis, among other things.

鈥淭he negative concern d鈥檍our is that when 鈥楺E2鈥� ends in June, the market will trade sharply lower and the bears will be proven correct,鈥� said Laszlo Birinyi of Birinyi Associates, in his monthly newsletter to clients. 鈥淧erhaps, we don鈥檛 know and quite frankly do not think that they do either. Bears, however, attribute the entire rally to the Fed鈥檚 buying, but we think that is an overstatement.鈥�

One fact that points to this rally being primarily Bernanke-based is the amazing breadth of the gains. In the last 12 months, just 50 stocks in the S&P 500 are down more than 5 percent. It is a bull that is essentially lifting all boats, on low volume to boot.

鈥淭he end of 鈥楺E2鈥� could induce a 10 to 15 percent correction,鈥� said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. Since the second leg of this bull market began so closely to Bernanke鈥檚 Jackson Hole speech, 鈥渢o think that the program will end and the market won鈥檛 anticipate and respond lower, I believe, is wishful thinking.鈥�