Auto industry exceeds low expectations: Good news, bad news for fuel economy
The auto industry is exceeding low expectations regarding fuel efficiency which is both good news and bad news for the fuel economy. Good news? Average mpg for cars and SUVs has improved more than expected. Bad news? Automakers are still off target to reach 2025 fuel efficiency goals.
An attendant puts back a fuel nozzle after filling fuel in a vehicle at a gas station in Mumbai. Automakers exceeded fuel efficiency expectations in 2012 but fell short of CAFE goals.
Arko Datta/Reuters/File
Back in 2011, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency issued聽聽--聽CAFE for short.聽While the regulations themselves are fairly complex, the gist is that automakers will have to achieve fleet-wide fuel economy of 54.5聽聽by 2025. Passenger cars will be held to a higher standard (62 mpg), while trucks and SUVs have a lower goal (44 mpg).
厂辞尘别听聽the new regulations, particularly consumer and environmental groups who looked forward to the greener聽聽that the rules would inspire. Others聽聽them, particularly European automakers like Volkswagen, who said that they gave U.S. companies an advantage thanks to the huge numbers of trucks and SUVs that Chrysler, Ford, and GM manufacture.聽
Nearly all, however, agreed that the new standards would be a challenge to achieve. But according to the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, things are off to a fairly good start.
In the first two years of the program, CAFE averages have slightly surpassed NHTSA's expectations. For model-year 2012 vehicles, the average was predicted to be 28.7 mpg, but the actual figure was 28.9. For model-year 2013, the CAFE average was predicted to be 29.7, but in fact clocked in at 29.8 mpg.
That's the good news.
The bad news is that NHTSA's expectations are below actual CAFE standards. NHTSA expects that automakers will be unable to meet the new regulations directly through fuel-economy improvements. The agency assumes that car companies will use additional means (e.g. earning credits by introducing small numbers of electric聽聽and improving air-conditioning technology, or even paying fines) to reach the appropriate goals.聽
So, while automakers exceeded聽expectations聽in model-year 2012, they still failed to meet the CAFE聽target聽of 30.1 mpg. And in 2013,聽聽companies hit 28.9 mpg, but that fell significantly short of the CAFE target of 31.1 mpg. 聽
Is it bad news that automakers failed to meet their true goals? Or is it good news that automakers exceeded low expectations? We'll let you decide.聽