海角大神

Obama's chance to get back in the game

The president has an opportunity to take a liberal stance on reducing the deficit. Will he take it?

If the President really is to rebut House Republican budget chairman Paul Ryan鈥檚 plan, he鈥檚 going to have to say something completely new in today鈥檚 speech. He鈥檚 going to have to say that reducing the deficit is as important as creating jobs, but that there鈥檚 not necessarily a tradeoff. And he鈥檒l have to reassure his liberal base (what鈥檚 left of it?) that the way you avoid that tradeoff is to take the polar opposite strategy of Ryan鈥搘hich is not to not reduce the deficit (which, I鈥檓 sorry, 鈥渇earmonger鈥� that I am, really will ultimately hurt all of us, rich or poor), but to reduce the deficit through better tax policy. (Example: on just such an approach over four years ago which reads amazingly like it was written yesterday.) The by complaining about the heartless, clueless Republican approach to deficit reduction, which is to drastically slash government spending programs in favor of tax cuts all the time for any reason, while at the same time basically embracing the bulk of the Republicans鈥� tax-cutting approach. (The extension of the Bush/Obama tax cuts still accounts for of the 笔谤别蝉颈诲别苍迟鈥檚 budget proposals.) Huh?

Ruth Marcus has also been puzzling over the 笔谤别蝉颈诲别苍迟鈥檚 strategy on the deficit issue; in today鈥檚 Washington Post (emphasis added):

I鈥檓 no sports nut but I鈥檝e spent enough time at kids鈥� soccer games to understand that it鈥檚 impossible to score if you鈥檙e playing on the wrong side of the field.

Which is why I have found the White House strategy for dealing with Republicans on the deficit so befuddling鈥�

The is a case in point. The prospect of a Republican takeover of the House was evident well before the election. The inevitable result was going to be more draconian cuts than would have been required if the spending bills were passed beforehand.

In the aftermath of the Democrats鈥� losses, the entire debate played out in terms they were destined to lose. If the argument is framed solely in terms of budget cuts, Republicans always win: They are willing to out-cut Democrats. That inescapable tilt was exacerbated by the virtual absence of a White House message about the impact of a shutdown or the cuts themselves鈥�

A second, maddening example of the White House allowing the other side to frame the debate involves the longer-term fiscal picture. The president convened a commission on the topic and then abandoned it. First, he did not lift a finger to help his co-chairs, Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, assemble the 14 votes necessary to get the commission鈥檚 plan a congressional vote. Then, when the was released, the president pointedly declined to express a view. He stuck to the vagueness strategy in his and his .

In the meantime, the void was filled 鈥� and the playing field was shifted even further rightward 鈥� by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan. The Wisconsin Republican unveiled a plan that makes the centrist Simpson-Bowles proposal look as if it were written by Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean.

If the White House had weighed in on Simpson-Bowles before Ryan released his plan, it could have staked out an argument that the framework 鈥� a combination of spending cuts and tax increases 鈥� was correct but that some specifics (the precise mix of the two, the details of the Social Security fix) went too far in the conservative direction. Now the 鈥渞easonable鈥� compromise would [seem to] be between Simpson-Bowles on the leftward side and Ryan on the right鈥�

[T]he administration [has been insisting that] coming forward with a plan of its own would be counterproductive. The history of budget deals, officials argued, was that public presidential proposals get shot down (George W. Bush on Social Security in 2005, for example); successful outcomes are crafted behind the scenes.

Indeed, this was happening in the form of the so-called Gang of Six, the bipartisan group of senators working to write the Simpson-Bowles framework into law. Just as the gang was nearing agreement, the Ryan plan came along, and the White House, rattled by its reception, decided it needed to get into the game鈥�

[But] if the White House was going to support the Simpson-Bowles framework all along, why not do it earlier and take advantage of the momentum?

Back to the sports metaphor, it makes you wonder: Can鈥檛 anybody here play this game?

Ruth seems to suggest the President has just accidentally stumbled onto the 鈥渨rong side of the field鈥� (that would be the conservatives鈥� side), but I don鈥檛 think that鈥檚 so accidental after all. If he intended to play at all for the 鈥渙ther team鈥� (that would be the liberals), he wouldn鈥檛 keep intentionally passing the then-Bush-now-Obama-tax-cuts ball to the conservatives. If the President intended to play on the liberals鈥� team (for at least part of the time anyway), he鈥檇 launch a strong offense that would propose a deficit-reduction plan based largely (mostly?) on raising revenue by reducing tax expenditures (a la Simpson-Bowles, although I鈥檇 suggest it would then be more 鈥渁 la Bowles-Simpson鈥�), and he would go further on the revenue-leaning side in order to provide a more adequate counter to the Ryan plan (which is all spending-side cuts). The President would say: hey, Ryan鈥檚 approach to reduce the deficit would virtually eliminate government programs outside of the entitlement programs鈥揾ey, that鈥檚 crazy! And he鈥檇 push back with his own approach to reduce the deficit by broadening the tax base and allowing revenues to rise as a share of our economy to levels even above the Bowles-Simpson ceiling of 21 percent, while explaining that he doesn鈥檛 like that ceiling because the 鈥渞ight鈥� level of revenues has nothing to do with historical averages or any other arbitrary target but instead with what鈥檚 needed to adequately finance the government spending we as a society desire and deem 鈥渨orth it.鈥� (And the 鈥渞ight鈥� size of government is the size we desire even when we have to fully pay for it鈥揳nd by the way, isn鈥檛 necessarily properly measured by spending or revenues as a share of GDP!)

In my wildest fantasies, in his speech today the President would make these declarations about embracing the fiscal commission鈥檚 general tax reform strategy, underscoring the point by adding that 鈥測ou know, let鈥檚 face it, the Bush tax cuts sucked, and I鈥檓 finally going to replace them with something better.鈥� (Or something like that.)

But somehow I don鈥檛 think we鈥檝e come any farther with the President on tax policy than a year ago (i.e., before the President got any ideas from his commission) when , concluding with:

I know you made an unfortunate campaign promise on tax policy that you feel bound to鈥搕o not raise taxes on any households with income under $250,000. But isn鈥檛 it more important to keep your greater (at least implicit) promise to the American people on keeping our economy strong, putting us on a better path (鈥漜hanging鈥� course), and leaving the nation in decent shape for our kids? You can鈥檛 keep both promises, and to me as an economist and as a mom鈥揳nd I hope to you as our leader and a dad鈥搃t鈥檚 obvious which one you should abandon.

Happy Tax Day!

Mr. President, please pleasantly surprise me today! Seize control of that ball and start charging in the right direction! (And yes, I know you play the 鈥渃ourt鈥� more than the 鈥渇ield鈥� Ruth was talking about.)

--------------------------

海角大神 has assembled a diverse group of the best economy-related bloggers out there. Our guest bloggers are not employed or directed by the Monitor and the views expressed are the bloggers' own, as is responsibility for the content of their blogs. To contact us about a blogger, click here. To add or view a comment on a guest blog, please go to the blogger's own site by clicking on the link above.