海角大神

Is 2016 the year of the worker?

Rising wages. A slate of worker protections on overtime, paid sick days, and fair scheduling. A GOP presidential nominee with a maternity leave plan. None of it seemed possible a few years ago. How did we get here, and what鈥檚 next?

Federal contractors just received a rare perk among the US workforce: seven paid sick days a year.

As far as improving access to paid sick time goes, it鈥檚 a drop in the bucket: The White House estimates that the new rule will affect up to 1 million workers, out of approximately 40 million without sick time. But it鈥檚 emblematic of the direction things have been moving for workers recently. The paid sick days rule is one of several small brushstrokes that, taken together, have painted a much brighter picture for middle and lower income Americans over the past year and a half or so.

• Median household income rose 5.2 percent in 2015 鈥� its first increase since 2007 and the largest boost in 17 years 鈥� and the poverty rate is on the decline.
• On the regulatory side, the Labor Department has introduced new worker protections for overtime and is looking to state legislation on things like solving the gender pay gap (Massachusetts) and fair scheduling practices (New York, Seattle) as a model for more.
• Paid maternity and family leave have become bipartisan causes and a growing number of states are making it law.
• Federal workers were granted access to six weeks of paid sick time a year ago, and cities including New York; Philadelphia; Portland, Ore; and Oakland, Calif., have expanded access.

Additionally, a slew of cities, states, and private employers have taken steps to raise their minimum pay rates. A $15 minimum wage, which seemed outrageous to many when Fight for $15 demonstrations began few years ago, is or will soon be a reality in many parts of the country.

鈥淲ith Fight for $15, I was saying, 鈥楾his is obviously ridiculous, this isn鈥檛 going to happen,鈥� and four years later it is happening,鈥� says Eve Weinbaum, a professor of labor and sociology at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. 鈥淲hat鈥檚 politically possible has completely changed.鈥�

There鈥檚 still a long way to go before the country enters a new golden age for the working class, economists say. Earnings and wages are still climbing back to where they were at the turn of the century, and the US still lacks many of what are considered basic worker rights in most industrial nations. But recently, political and economic forces have converged to make real progress on those fronts more feasible, experts say.

Not just 鈥榤y problem鈥�

Inequality, in the grand scheme of things, is a relatively new political buzzword. Phrases like 鈥渢he rich getting richer鈥� and 鈥渢he 99 percent,鈥� were hardly in the popular lexicon in 2010. That started to change with the Occupy Wall Street movement in 2011, which railed against the lack of consequences for the financial industry in the wake of the Great Recession and popularized the framing of a privileged few (the one percent) capitalizing on the struggles of a vast, stuck majority.聽

While the Occupy protests themselves soon petered out, they laid the groundwork for subsequent social movements like Black Lives Matter, the Fight for $15, and democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders鈥檚 run for the Democratic nomination for president.

鈥淚t鈥檚 really entered the debate in terms of economics,鈥� says Elise Gould, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute in Washington. 鈥淭here鈥檚 much more awareness than a decade ago, even though [income inequality] has been growing for three decades.鈥�

Additionally, she says, those movements have helped foment political action around what have been traditionally viewed as personal or family matters, like the high cost of childcare and untenable work schedules. 鈥淔amilies with children have been struggling for years,鈥� Ms. Gould says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not a new problem, but they think 鈥極h, that鈥檚 just my problem.鈥� Public discourse now tells them it鈥檚 not just them, this affects millions of people. So that looks different, and it starts to seem ripe for a government solution.鈥�

Some of that started to bear fruit during the 2012 election cycle, Ms. Weinbaum says. 鈥淪tates that had ballot initiatives on paid leave, minimum wage, sick leave 鈥� mostly those passed, including in red states with very conservative elected officials. It was the first time a lot of people realized there was this broad base of support for these workplace rights.鈥�

Indeed, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump鈥檚 presidential campaigns have unveiled plans for the government to pay for family or maternity leave and help subsidize childcare. The issue was once considered toxic on the right, but Senate conservatives, including Marco Rubio, have embraced the cause. In August, the American Action Forum, a conservative think tank, released a proposal for paid parental leave as a form of social insurance to benefit the poorest Americans 鈥� a departure from previous conservative proposals, which largely consisted of offering tax credits to employers that offered the benefit.

鈥淭he private sector workers least likely to receive paid family leave are the ones who earn low wages and work for small employers,鈥� AAF鈥檚 report reads. 鈥淎 more sensible approach may be to use taxpayer dollars to design a government program that administers the benefit.鈥�

The role of states, cities

On the federal level, worker-focused reforms have come largely through executive action. In addition to Thursday鈥檚 paid sick leave mandate, Obama鈥檚 Labor Department in May expanded overtime pay to millions of Americans by raising the threshold under which salaried employees qualify for extra wages. Last year, it released guidance on which workers qualify as independent contractors and which ones qualify as employees, arguing that the former was being used too liberally and keeping qualified workers from benefits and protections to which they were entitled.

But much of the action has been at the state and city level. This is vital, Weinbaum says, because local legislation can serve as a model for federal laws. When Massachusetts passed a law aimed at tackling the gender pay gap this August that forbids employers from asking new hires about their previous salary history, the Labor Department praised it as a possible national blueprint.

That 鈥渢rickle up鈥� method has become more prominent in the past 30 years, she says, as the power of unions has declined. With their national prominence faded in the wake of Ronald Reagan鈥檚 presidency, they homed in on state and local activism in union-friendly areas. Now they鈥檝e again refocused their efforts, backing low-wage workers who have had low rates of unionization in the past. Fight for $15 has been backed financially by the Service Employees International Union. 鈥淭hey can鈥檛 organize Walmart by Walmart or McDonald鈥檚 by McDonald鈥檚, but they can focus on national campaigns that really capture the imagination,鈥� Weinbaum says.

In part because of such activism, local reforms have come fast and frequent. On a broader scale, that has the potential to accomplish two things. First, successful implementation of a state or city law can bolster the case that it won鈥檛 be an economic disaster when implemented more broadly. Rhode Island, for example, faced spirited opposition when it implemented a parental leave law in 2014, but state employers have reported little in the way of financial consequences.

Second, when reforms become widespread enough, they can put pressure on other states to act. 鈥淭he fight for gay marriage was a perfect example,鈥� Weinbaum says. 鈥淥nce it happened in a few states, and nothing terrible happened, it becomes acceptable. A few years ago it was unthinkable. Do you really want to be the only state that doesn鈥檛 have sick leave for your employees?鈥�

What鈥檚 next?

Gould argues there are still a lot of problems that need solving, and that even in the face of such reforms, many workers are falling behind. 鈥淭he racial wage gap has honestly gotten worse,鈥� she says. According to EPI鈥檚 research, the pay disparity between blacks and whites is the largest since 1979. 鈥淭he gender gap is improving, but a lot of that is because men鈥檚 growth has been low.鈥�

On the federal level, a paid family leave plan, the FAMILY Act, has been stalled in Congress; the US is still the only industrial nation on earth without a national paid parental leave law. And the Obama administration鈥檚 executive actions could be undone by a new incoming administration.

What鈥檚 more, the economy is in relatively good shape, and any setbacks could help knock lower- and middle-income workers off their newly found footing. Still, Weinbaum contends that recent progress has had less to do with the economy鈥檚 current strength and more with raised awareness of issues that affect a critical mass of Americans.

鈥淵es, things are better overall, and it鈥檚 hard to ask for these things when jobs are disappearing,鈥� she says. 鈥淭here have always been huge levels of inequality and low levels of mobility. I don鈥檛 think there鈥檚 been a huge change there, but how people perceive the possibilities of doing better is what changes.鈥�