海角大神

Testing the assumptions behind the headlines

Speaking on Iran at last night's State of the Union, President Barack Obama聽avoided聽earlier administration assertions that Iran had聽already聽agreed to 鈥渄ismantle鈥� part of its nuclear program,聽and would be required to do so聽in any final deal.

Instead, he聽stuck to聽vague,聽boilerplate lines, saying that the interim agreement signed in Geneva last November聽had "halted聽the progress of Iran's nuclear program 鈥� and rolled back parts of that program 鈥� for the very first time in a decade.鈥�

By avoiding the use of the word "dismantle" and any explicit mention of Iran's centrifuges 鈥� issues on which the US and Iran have traded accusations of duplicity in recent weeks 鈥� Obama signaled that he is not about to lay down any firm markers before the negotiators meet again next month.聽

Obama聽also vowed to veto any bill from Congress that includes new sanctions on Iran, which he said would 鈥渄erail these talks.鈥澛營ran has said that any new sanctions, even if intended to only kick in if it reneges on the interim deal, are contrary to the spirit of the Geneva deal and would "kill" the talks.聽

鈥淭he language of dismantlement is a double-edged sword,鈥� says Shashank Joshi, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London.聽

鈥淥n one hand, everyone knows that Iran is going to have to dismantle something in a final deal. But in Congress, 鈥榙ismantlement鈥� is a byword for complete dismantlement, a byword for complete surrender,鈥� says Mr. Joshi. Obama 鈥渄oes not want to encourage lawmakers to think that this is merely a path by which they can eliminate Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, which some members of Congress still think it is.鈥�

Iran has pushed back strongly against the frequent use of the word 鈥渄ismantle鈥� by US Secretary of State John Kerry and senior US officials, which gives the impression of Iranian capitulation.聽

Iran鈥檚 President Hassan Rouhani said this week that the final deal would not involve destruction 鈥渦nder any circumstances鈥� of any of Iran鈥檚 19,000 centrifuges, which enrich uranium to make nuclear reactor fuel and medical isotopes, their stated purpose (at higher levels, they can be used for nuclear weapons).

And Foreign Minister Javad Zarif complained to CNN a week ago about official descriptions of the interim deal: 鈥淭he White House version both underplays the concessions and overplays Iranian commitments,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e not dismantling any centrifuges, we鈥檙e not dismantling any equipment."

But Tehran has also understated its own commitments to mollify hard-line critics at home who have likened the deal to a 鈥渘uclear holocaust." After six months of portraying Iran鈥檚 outreach as an effort to find a 鈥渨in-win鈥� formula, Mr. Rouhani declared earlier this month聽that the deal meant Iran had achieved the 鈥渟urrender鈥� of the US and other world powers.

Iranian officials also argue that Iran鈥檚 nuclear program and enrichment will advance without closing or significantly altering any nuclear facilities.

Despite not mentioning "dismantlement," Obama kept聽another formulation that Congress expects to hear, but that has long riled Iran:聽that of "all options" being available for dealing with Tehran, leaving the door open for military action.聽"If Iran's leaders do not seize this opportunity, then I will be the first to call for more sanctions and stand ready to exercise all options to make sure Iran does not build a nuclear weapon," he said.聽