海角大神

Testing assumptions behind the headlines

When Syria鈥檚 main opposition group sits around the table later this week with representatives of President Bashar al-Assad's regime it will be breaking its own rules. The fractious opposition has previously refused such contact, instead calling absolutely for the end of Mr. Assad鈥檚 rule.聽

But today in Montreux, Switzerland, opposition leader Ahmed Jarba and Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem traded charges of 鈥渢errorism鈥� back and forth, face-to-face, in speeches at the opening of United Nations-sponsored peace talks.

The issue of direct talks caused a split in the umbrella Syrian National Coalition (SNC) last week, nearly derailing its attendance at the Geneva II talks. When it was formed last year, the SNC charter forbid direct contact with the enemy.聽

鈥淭hey did not pay any attention to the rules of the coalition鈥� before going to Geneva, says Khaled al-Khoja, an SNC member in Istanbul who was among 44 that split from the main group and refused to attend.聽

The rule was 鈥渇lexible鈥� when first agreed, says Mr. Khoja, and dependent on聽an agreement聽from those inside Syria. They were asked, and their response was that three pre-conditions had to be met: ending blockades on rebel areas, freeing prisoners, and an end to government shelling of cities and rebel areas.聽

None were met before Jarba said the group would go to Geneva.

鈥淛arba is going now without a consensus. That is very dangerous,鈥� says Khoja. Jarba鈥檚 speech today was good, he said, and 鈥渢he hero is the one who will make the other side withdraw.鈥澛�

鈥淚f Ahmed Jarba can come back from Geneva without negotiating with Walid al-Moualem, there will be a chance to repair the damage between [him] and other elements鈥� of the opposition, says Khoja.

But the Syrian foreign minister鈥檚 speech gave no indication that the regime was even considering ceding any power, much less handing it over.聽鈥淣obody in this world has the right to withdraw the legitimacy of a president or government鈥�other than the Syrians themselves,鈥� he said.

It is no surprise that much of the opposition refuses direct talks. The strategy is straight from the playbook of Gene Sharp, the godfather of nonviolent revolution, whose teachings have been effectively applied from Serbia and Georgia to Tunisia.

In his book "From Dictatorship to Democracy," there is an entire chapter called 鈥淭he Dangers of Negotiations.鈥�

鈥淭he offer by a dictatorship of 鈥榩eace鈥� through negotiations with the democratic opposition is, of course, rather disingenuous,鈥� writes Mr. Sharp. 鈥淭he violence could be ended immediately by the dictators themselves, if only they would stop waging war on their own people.鈥澛�

鈥淲hen the dictatorship is strong but an irritating resistance exists, the dictators may wish to negotiate the opposition into surrender under the guise of making 鈥榩eace,鈥欌�� adds Sharp. 鈥淭he call to negotiate can sound appealing, but grave dangers can be lurking within the negotiating room.鈥澛�