海角大神

Reports that a Chinese navy vessel tried this month to force a US warship to a halt in international waters have senior US officials and longtime Asia analysts asking what, precisely, China was trying to prove by the maneuver.聽

US naval officials note that the USS Cowpens 鈥� a guided missile warship 鈥� was 鈥渓awfully operating鈥� in waters near the South China Sea when it had an encounter with a People's Liberation Army (PLA) vessel 鈥渢hat required maneuvering to avoid a collision,鈥� according to an article in the Washington Free Beacon.聽

The incident followed China鈥檚 announcement that it will establish an air defense identification zone (IDIZ) in the East China Sea, a move that elicited howls of objection from the US military, as well as from China鈥檚 neighbors in Southeast Asia, who worry about Beijing's growing willingness to flex its military muscle in the region.

While US Navy officials confirm the episode, they also caution that these sorts of standoffs with China happen with relative frequency in the Pacific and that, according to one Navy officer with knowledge of the event, it鈥檚 important not to 鈥渙verhype鈥� the incident.

That said, the recent run-in holds a larger message, analysts say. The chief one may be that the US will not be able to comfortably troll the waters of the western Pacific.

鈥淭he Chinese are trying to make it clear that, if the US wants to operate in these waters, then it should be prepared to be operating under a high state of tension,鈥� says Dean Cheng, senior research fellow for Chinese political and security affairs at the Heritage Foundation. 鈥淚f the US doesn鈥檛 want tension, then it鈥檚 very simple: leave.鈥澛�

The confrontation, he adds, was 鈥渁 deliberate effort to intimidate.鈥�

If this is the case, then to what end? After all, a majority of elites in China prefer to strengthen the bilateral relationship with the United States rather than to pursue "hawkish," hegemonic ambitions, according to a recent report from聽Michael Swaine, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

One possible answer is that recent PLA moves indicate that the 鈥淐hinese are now trying to establish a much greater presence in the western Pacific,鈥� says Dr. Swaine. 鈥淚n a sense, they want to convey to other countries that they are out there, they鈥檙e operating, and other people need to recognize this and abide by their desires.鈥澛�

The USS Cowpens was conducting surveillance of China鈥檚 new aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, at the time. According to the Washington Free Beacon, a Chinese ship that was accompanying the carrier moved in front of the Cowpens to try to make it come to a full halt 鈥� hardly a safe maneuver. The bottom line is that China is out 鈥渢o make sure that the US shows respect to China 鈥� that they acknowledge a sphere of influence,鈥� says Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. [Editor's note: The original version of this paragraph did not list the correct organization with which Dr. Cronin is currently affiliated.]

For this reason, he adds, 鈥淐hina鈥檚 military posture is increasingly assertive.鈥�

But that doesn鈥檛 mean the PLA 鈥渋s devoted to taking over the western Pacific and ejecting the US,鈥� says Swaine.聽

More likely, China is interested in establishing greater ability to deter other forces 鈥� including Japan and the US 鈥� 鈥漟rom being able to prevail in possible confrontations over Taiwan and other disputed territories,鈥� he says.

In other words, says Swaine, China wants to make it 鈥渕uch more difficult for the US and Japan to be confident that they can use military coercion or force to try to deflect Chinese behavior or threaten China in some way.鈥澛�

And while 鈥渋t鈥檚 probably true that China doesn鈥檛 have imperial ambitions, on the other hand it鈥檚 imperious,鈥� Dr. Cronin says.聽

The net result, Cronin adds, could be that China is behaving in a way that increasingly coalesces an anti-China faction 鈥� "the very one that China is purporting to be trying to guard against."聽