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Israeli military goes off message on Iran nuclear talks

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu fiercely opposes a deal with Iran, but the Israeli military puts a more positive spin on how a deal could bolster regional stability.

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Alexei Nikolsky/Presidential Press Service/RIA-Novosti/AP
Russian President Vladimir Putin (r.) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu take part in a joint news conference in the Kremlin in Moscow, Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2013.

Even as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues his diplomatic offensive against what he calls a "dangerous" compromise on Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, Israel鈥檚 military intelligence seems open to a deal, even one that relaxes the Western sanctions on Iran that Mr. Netanyahu has vocally supported.聽

According to an unclassified assessment shared by聽a senior Israeli officer, military intelligence is focused on the implications of a potential compromise between Iran and the P5+1 (the US, Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany).

A deal would boost President Hassan Rouhani, whose surprise victory in June appeared to herald a聽political shift in Iran 鈥 although he is up against hardliners who oppose a deal.

In the background briefing with foreign journalists, which covered a wide range of Middle East hotspots, the intelligence officer said Iran was one of several countries that could buck the general turmoil across the region.

"We see a bit of a possibility, although it鈥檚 quite problematic, of more 鈥 stability," said the officer, who spoke on the basis of anonymity. But that is dependent on the success of negotiations聽"over the nuclear project,聽but more than that, over the relief of the sanctions on the Iranian economy," he said.

Though it鈥檚 not the first time that parts of Israel鈥檚 security establishment have broken with聽Mr. Netanyahu鈥檚 approach on Iran, the intelligence report offers fresh evidence of stark differences within Israel's power structure.

Another parting of ways: While Netanyahu has demanded that negotiators seek the full dismantling of Iran鈥檚 nuclear capability, the military official said the聽intelligence branch聽does not think this demand is realistic. The international community isn't talking about "deleting" Iran's nuclear program, he said.聽

Tehran聽has already become a "nuclear threshold" country, building the infrastructure, fissile material and know-how necessary to build a nuclear weapon within a relatively short time if it decided to do so,聽the intelligence officer said.

Iran聽has not made that decision yet, according to the assessment 鈥 likely because US threats of attack deterred Iranian officials, he said.聽

Mr. Netanyahu has called for a ratcheting up sanctions on聽Mr. Rouhani, whom he calls聽"a wolf in sheep鈥檚 clothing," and has lobbied US congressmen for support. The Israeli leader has argued that any relaxation of US sanctions would undermine the entire system of sanctions.聽President Barack Obama, however, argued聽on Tuesday聽that world powers could tolerate a modest relaxation while a final deal is being hammered out because they could be easily reimposed.聽

Iranians are frustrated with the country鈥檚 economic woes brought on by sanctions, so an easing would likely give Mr. Rouhani a boost in domestic support.聽If talks collapsed, cutting short efforts to lift some of the sanctions, Mr. Rouhani would likely see a major dip in support and possible unrest, according to the military's calculations.聽

While Mr. Netanyahu would welcome such turmoil, the Israeli intelligence officer said the military views the election of Mr. Rouhani in June as a genuine protest vote of the masses that surprised the Iranian regime, rather than a deliberate ploy to curry favor in the West.聽

"I鈥檓 not here as a representative of the prime minister. Regarding Israeli policy, you鈥檒l have to ask him. The intelligence assessment is that we think Iranian regime has legitimacy problems," explained the officer. The officer pointed to the electoral surprise of Mr. Rouhani as evidence.

"The fact that economic numbers are not good and that there is some kind of noise among the public 鈥 at least about the economic situation 鈥 makes challenges for the regime. That鈥檚 probably why Rouhani was elected in such large numbers more than anything else."

When asked if the officer sees signs of real change in Iran, he said that such a shift depends on the outcome of negotiations.

"If the deal [isn't] signed, nothing would happen. [Talks] would collapse, nothing would happen, sanctions would continue, the economic situation 鈥 would worsen probably."

The assessment seems to jibe with a report in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz two months ago which quoted from a military intelligence document in Iran鈥檚 political system.聽

"They think there is an opportunity in the diplomatic track. Military intelligence thinks that the elections in Iran were a sign of strategic shift in the Iranian system," says Haretz diplomatic reporter Barak Ravid, who saw the intelligence document. 聽"The Israeli intelligence community doesn鈥檛 see Iran as Bibi (Netanyahu) sees it鈥.聽聽They are taking a wait and see approach."

But the Israeli military is far from becoming a fan of the Iranian president 鈥 he is still considered part of the Iranian establishment, says Meir Javedanfar, an Iran expert based in Tel Aviv.

"I don鈥檛 think this means we support Rouhani. The election of Rouhani shows that people of Iran want to change the nuclear strategy of Iran, to have more confidence building, and Khamenei鈥檚 efforts to create consensus behind his nuclear strategy failed."

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