海角大神

What does the perfect Internet look like?

The paradisiacal vision of its future听鈥撎齛 scenario Atlantic Council senior fellow Jason Healey calls 鈥淐yber Shangri La鈥� 鈥� is one in which the dreams of Silicon Valley come true: New technologies are born and implemented quickly; secure online access is a human right.听

There鈥檚 also what Mr. Healey, a Passcode columnist, dubs 鈥淐lockwork Orange Internet.鈥� In this dystopian future, criminals and nation-states knock down attempts to secure networks and devices; people are afraid of shopping online or communicating freely with friends.

Passcode was the exclusive media partner for an event hosted by the Atlantic Council鈥檚 Cyber Statecraft Initiative听on Wednesday听focusing on alternate realities for the future of the Digital Age. Here are three things we learned from some of the country鈥檚 leading thinkers.

1. The future Internet could be fragmented

In one vision of the Internet, the world鈥檚 dominant powers take听jurisdiction over users in their own countries. If more countries begin听shutting down the Internet to prevent activists from organizing, for instance, or mandating听encrypted technology have back doors to enable government access, people鈥檚 Internet experiences will be largely driven by the country they鈥檙e accessing it from, Healey said.

This could slow down global processes that rely on the Internet 鈥� and potentially spark massive economic and trade impacts. 鈥淭hat could really slow down every packet, which stops it from being a little bit of friction to a significant barrier to cross-border trade.鈥�

2. The global paradigm is already shifting

The paradigm spanning back to the earliest days of cyberintelligence has always been that those who have the capability to conduct a destructive cyberattack didn't have the intent to do so, Healey said. It鈥檚 also common thinking that those who had the intent to do so 鈥� such as terrorists, for instance 鈥� didn't have the capabilities.

Now, for the first time, Healey said, there are 鈥渃ompetent cyber adversaries鈥� in Iran, or even Russia, who might have both the capabilities and willingness to launch a digital attack if political relationships worsen or their economic status weakens. And if that happens, Healey said, the US president may shoot back in cyberspace. 鈥淭he gloves are going to come off.鈥�

3. The definition of 'cybersecurity' could change over time

When everything is connected to the Internet, what鈥檚 known today as cybersecurity may be considered simply 鈥渟ecurity鈥� for everyone in their daily life.

But what does it mean to be secure, asked Steve Weber, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley鈥檚 School of Information, when everything鈥檚 connected to the Internet? During the cold war, the narrow definition of security was 鈥渢erritorial autonomy, and decisional autonomy for nation-states,鈥� he said.听Once the freeze thawed, definitions for security expanded to include, for instance, environmental security and economy security.听

So within a few years from today, the fact that human life is so dependent on machines may spark other consequences for the human race other than just breaches or vulnerabilities. It could, for instance, put at risk large numbers of jobs in developed countries, Weber said. 鈥淚 think in a few years, we鈥檙e going to call that a cybersecurity issue,鈥� he said. Solving that will require a very different set of people and models to solve what people currently see as today鈥檚 cybersecurity issues.

Two notable quotes:

鈥淭he cybersecurity industry has only existed for 20 years. There [are] always leaders and laggards. The laggards actually have a short-term benefit. They don鈥檛 spend any money on security, until they鈥檙e whacked, and then have to spend a lot of money on it. But the leaders are spending all that money, all the time, and they don鈥檛 experience that devastating breach and loss of faith in their brand.鈥� 听鈥� Richard Stiennon, chief research analyst IT-Harvest听

鈥淭aking advantage of human beings which are, it sounds trite to say it, the weakest link in a network. I live in a campus that doesn鈥檛 even have two-factor authentication. I haven鈥檛 changed my password in 22 years. Nobody鈥檚 asked me to change it in 22 years 鈥� . You already know what it is. It鈥檚 the name of my cat followed by one. Which is everybody鈥檚 password. There is this super high-end [attack] approach then there鈥檚 this really low-end approach. You have people out there using Windows XP that don鈥檛 even know what patch means. 鈥� 鈥� Steve Weber

Notable tweet:

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