Caught between war and peace, Iranians live in limbo
| London
Before the war, Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz was an Iranian holiday destination that offered boutique hotels, quaint caf茅s, and the embrace of a slower, disconnected island lifestyle.
鈥淪uddenly, we are living on the front line,鈥� says one Qeshm guesthouse owner in a text message exchange, who could not be named for his security, as he prepared to leave the island Thursday after nine years. It had been another night of blasts and the buzz of drones and fighter jets.
鈥淚t鈥檚 been a nightmare. We have [U.S. or Israeli] attacks almost every day,鈥� he says.
Why We Wrote This
The world has watched as President Donald Trump vacillates between promises that peace is near in Iran and threats of renewed war. No one bears the cost of that uncertainty more than Iranians.
U.S. strikes on Iran early Wednesday and Thursday 鈥� which U.S. Central Command portrayed as 鈥渟elf-defense鈥� for Iran鈥檚 earlier downing of a U.S. Apache attack helicopter 鈥� included targets on Qeshm, which overlooks the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global energy supplies pass.
The United States justified the second night of strikes, saying Iran was taking too long to accept a truce deal on American terms. 鈥淚f we need to negotiate with bombs, we鈥檒l negotiate with bombs,鈥� said Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
President Donald Trump said Iran would be hit 鈥渧ery hard鈥� for a third night, in a social media post Thursday. The U.S. would seize 鈥淜harg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets,鈥� he wrote, in the 鈥渘ot too distant future.鈥�
From tranquil to turmoil
Iran responded both nights by launching missiles and drones at American bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. On early Thursday, Iran鈥檚 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps closed the strait and declared that any moving vessel would be attacked.
Iran says the U.S. strikes have rendered the April ceasefire 鈥渆ffectively ... meaningless,鈥� and warned of 鈥渄angerous consequences.鈥�
The war launched jointly against Iran in late February by the U.S. and Israel 鈥� marked by thousands of airstrikes and missile exchanges and now battle over control of the strait 鈥� has turned Qeshm into a battle zone. The disruption of its once-renowned tranquility now reflects the broader turmoil and contested consequences of the conflict for Iranians.
The island has become unrecognizable, says the guesthouse owner, with 60 or so caf茅s and homestays closed. Two of his friends were killed weeks into the war while doing maintenance on their boats. Residents erase contents on their mobile phones to avoid scrutiny at numerous security checkpoints.
鈥淵ou know, what鈥檚 killing us is not the missiles or drones, or [Shiite clerical] mullahs or Trump,鈥� says the Qeshm resident, who loaded his vehicle and another truck for his exodus from the island Thursday. 鈥淣ot having a vision is the most lethal weapon.鈥�
The Islamic Republic portrays the result so far as 鈥渧ictory鈥� over far more capable enemies that sought to topple the regime and destroy its strategic capabilities.
The regime has instead survived 鈥� and has even found ways to exercise new global economic leverage. But Iranian citizens say the country鈥檚 underlying problems remain unsolved. After years of economic hardship, exacerbated by Western sanctions over its nuclear program, and a deadly government crackdown on antiregime protests earlier this year that left thousands dead, many say the war has only deepened a sense of exhaustion and despair.
Vacillating threats 鈥� including one to send Iran back to the 鈥淪tone Age鈥� 鈥� and unrealized diplomatic promises from Mr. Trump have added to their uncertainty.
On Wednesday, just hours after predicting a truce deal within days, Mr. Trump claimed on social media, 鈥淭hey have been completely defeated. Iran is all talk and no action. The Bully of the Middle East is DEAD!!!鈥�
Amid counterthreats from Iran鈥檚 surviving leadership, many Iranians say the term 鈥渧ictory鈥� is hard to envision as anything more than avoiding defeat. 鈥淣o war has an ideal outcome; the choices are limited to bad and worse,鈥� says a middle-aged electronics engineer and father of two in Tehran, contacted by phone, who gave the name Behnam. He says he lost a relative in an Israeli airstrike.
鈥淎 bad outcome is the end of the war with the current status quo, and a worse outcome is the resumption of the war with more losses and casualties,鈥� he says. 鈥淚n any case, it will not be considered a victory. Both the regime and Iranian civil society are weaker than they were three months ago.鈥�
鈥淧eople still need to see the dividends鈥�
Despite damage to industrial and economic infrastructure and rising inflation, Behnam says, the regime has strengthened its grip against a common enemy. 鈥淚n the balance between civil society and the ruling regime, the balance has definitely shifted in favor of the regime,鈥� he says.
That change is reflected by top Iranian officials. They have vowed to strike back against further U.S. and Israeli attacks, control shipping in the strait, and maintain Iran鈥檚 nuclear and missile programs. They have also linked an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon 鈥� the stronghold of Iran鈥檚 embattled Hezbollah ally 鈥� to any broader deal with the U.S.
鈥淭here is definitely a 鈥榬ally around the homeland鈥� 鈥� I wouldn鈥檛 say 鈥榬ally around the flag,鈥欌�� says Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington.
鈥淲ith the war 鈥� definitely for the regime, and supporters of the regime 鈥� this is very much a moment of confidence, maybe overconfidence, like, 鈥榃hat else is going to threaten us? They can鈥檛 overthrow us; they can鈥檛 beat us through military means,鈥� so they are feeling strongly situated,鈥� says Mr. Toossi.
That, he says, has given some ordinary people a sense of pride. But that will translate into increased regime support only if people feel the benefits of a stabler economy. 鈥淔or the longest time, when you talked to ordinary people, they said, 鈥極K, we鈥檙e picking this battle with America and Israel, and we鈥檙e getting poorer as a result of it,鈥欌�� Mr. Toossi says. 鈥淧eople still need to see the dividends of it.鈥�
Throughout much of the conflict, authorities shut down the internet and phone services, effectively disconnecting Iranians from the outside world. As that blockage eased in late May, Iranians vented their frustrations on social media.
One Iranian gave a 鈥�1鈥� when asked to rate quality of life on a scale of 1 to 10. 鈥淪ince the 8 January [crackdown], everything has been downhill. For a month, all we did was weep and suffer in anguish. Before we had even recovered from that scar ... came the internet shutdowns, and the war,鈥� the Iranian posted on the social platform X.
鈥淭he fear and anxiety of living through a war, on top of losing access to the internet, were utterly maddening. And now the inflation and uncertainty are trampling whatever has remained of our existence.鈥�
Such sentiments resonate with a Tehran homemaker who no longer wears a head-covering hijab 鈥� as officially required. She holds a master鈥檚 degree in Persian literature, has no children, and gave the name Roya.
鈥淚 was really hoping that this war would lead to a serious weakening of the Islamic Republic. That鈥檚 why it鈥檚 difficult for me to talk about a 鈥榲ictory鈥� for the government,鈥� she says.
鈥淭he best outcome [it] achieved was simply surviving the crisis. But staying in power alone cannot really be described as a victory,鈥� says Roya.
鈥淚 have a great deal of respect for the people of Iran. Under extremely difficult circumstances, they showed remarkable resilience and endurance,鈥� she says. But any government policy 鈥渟hould ultimately be judged by its impact on people鈥檚 lives. If the end result does not improve people鈥檚 situation, I don鈥檛 see it as something for the state to be proud of.鈥�
Episodes of protest in recent years, adds Roya, demonstrate the widespread scale of popular anger, but also show that change in Iran is a difficult, long-term process.
鈥淚 have not lost hope. Not because I think major change will happen tomorrow, but because the underlying problems that have fueled public dissatisfaction are still right there,鈥� she says.
An Iranian researcher contributed to this report.
