What the pager attack in Lebanon means for Israel-Hezbollah conflict
| Tel Aviv, Israel
As news broke Tuesday that pagers belonging to Hezbollah members were exploding across Beirut and southern Lebanon, injuring nearly 3,000 people, Israeli TV drama writer Avi Issacharoff turned to聽the social media platform X.
The co-creator of the hit TV series 鈥淔auda,鈥� about undercover Israeli operatives, posted that writers were working on another season, but 鈥淣othing comes close to what鈥檚 currently happening in real life.鈥�
Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the audacious, technically impressive attack, unprecedented in its scope, impact, and complexity.
Why We Wrote This
In Lebanon, exploding pagers and booby-trapped walkie-talkies 鈥� believed to be set off by Israel 鈥� have rattled Hezbollah and captured the world鈥檚 attention. What do they portend?
But the question exercising people on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border is much simpler: What might come next? Heightened tensions, spiraling retaliation, a wider war?
The first indication that Tuesday鈥檚 operation was more than a one-off move came Wednesday afternoon, when another set of low-tech wireless devices, among them walkie-talkies, exploded in Lebanon, reportedly injuring over 100 people and killing nine.
鈥淚f this is the beginning of a series of moves, you could say it was done to prepare for a larger offensive鈥� against Hezbollah by destroying one of its communications networks, suggests Yaakov Katz, a senior fellow at The Jewish People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem think tank, and author of 鈥淭he Weapon Wizards: How Israel Became a High-Tech Military Superpower.鈥�
If the goal is more limited, he argues, 鈥淵ou need to ask what it achieves. And what it potentially achieves is that it shows Hezbollah is vulnerable and weak, and hopefully it boosts deterrence鈥� against retaliation.聽
For the past 11 months, villages and towns along Israel鈥檚 northern border with Lebanon have been under near constant Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks, launched on the heels of Hamas鈥� Oct. 7 assault on Israel. Forests are ablaze, and almost 70,000 residents of the north, evacuated to safer places, have been unable to go home. Pressure for their return is mounting, fueling advocates of an invasion of Lebanon to push Hezbollah forces back.
At the same time, Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon are making life impossible for civilian residents. But to date, both sides have managed an uneasy equilibrium of tit-for-tat warfare, each wary of full-scale war that could prompt a catastrophic level of devastation.
Tuesday鈥檚 and Wednesday鈥檚 events not only are a 鈥渟ymbolic blow鈥� to Hezbollah, a radical Shiite Muslim organization backed by Iran, said Peter Harling, a former analyst with the International Crisis Group, in a post on X. They also exposed vulnerabilities in what was thought to be the group鈥檚 鈥渆fficacy, and an almost airtight community,鈥� he wrote.
鈥淪uch a moment of destabilization is not one in which Hezbollah is likely to escalate the war. You don鈥檛 raise the stakes when your communications are disrupted and your ranks disoriented,鈥� he argued. 鈥淔or Israel, however, this in principle is the best timing to broaden its scope.鈥�
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant indicated on Wednesday that Israel鈥檚 military focus is shifting north from Gaza, as negotiations for a cease-fire deal to release over 100 hostages appear to have stalled.聽
鈥淭he center of gravity is moving northward 鈥� resources and forces are being allocated鈥� to the northern front, he said. 鈥淲e are at the start of a new phase in the war 鈥� it requires courage, determination, and perseverance on our part.鈥�
A division of the Israeli army has been withdrawn from Gaza and redeployed in the north, Israeli media reported Wednesday.聽On Monday evening, the Israeli Cabinet made the return home of displaced citizens an official war goal.
But some observers remain skeptical about Israel鈥檚 intentions.
鈥淲hat would Israel do in a broader war with Lebanon?鈥� wonders Eyal Zisser, vice rector of Tel Aviv University. 鈥淭he government does not know what to do about Gaza. Does one give them credit that they will know what to do with Lebanon?鈥�
鈥淚f you are thinking about escalating, you need a purpose, a political goal, and [the government鈥檚] goal is to survive politically,鈥� he says.
鈥淚t鈥檚 highly impressive, what happened鈥� in Lebanon, he acknowledges. 鈥淏ut it is not how you win a war.鈥�
