Many Israelis are resigned to war with Hezbollah. Are they prepared?
| TEL AVIV, Israel
With hostilities between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah escalating daily, U.S. and European diplomats are striving to prevent the violence from erupting into a full-scale war that could threaten the region.
The need for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis, which has already driven tens of thousands of people from their homes, was a key message conveyed Tuesday by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to visiting Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Washington.
鈥淎nother war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily become a regional war with terrible consequences for the Middle East,鈥� Secretary Austin said. 鈥淲e are urgently seeking a diplomatic agreement that restores lasting calm to Israel鈥檚 northern border and enables civilians to return safely to their homes on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onMany factors fuel resilience in time of war: hope, confidence, unity, trust in government. As Israelis endure their longest-ever war, against Hamas in Gaza, the threat of a far more arduous conflict looms with Lebanon鈥檚 powerful Hezbollah.
Yet for many Israelis 鈥� fixated for more than eight months on the war with Hamas in Gaza and a traumatic hostage crisis 鈥� the prospect of war on an additional front elicits a blend of fatigue and resignation that conflict is perhaps inevitable.听
Residents of northern Israel cannot live with the threat of Hezbollah rockets or an invasion like the one Hamas carried out Oct. 7, the argument goes, even if the timing is bad.
An all-out war with Hezbollah would be a 鈥渄isaster,鈥� says Pini Yonatan, a hairdresser at a salon in northern Tel Aviv, as he takes a break.
People are 鈥渕entally exhausted鈥� from the war in Gaza, he concedes. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 want a war, but we don鈥檛 have a choice. We will get hit, but Lebanon will be destroyed.鈥�
Yet that exhaustion, accompanied by the return of anti-government protests as a fixture of Israeli politics, raises the question of how prepared Israelis are for an additional conflict.听
Many Israelis express faith in the military to protect them, though experts warn there is a lack of appreciation for what a war with an enemy that is vastly more powerful than Hamas would mean for residents of the center of the country.
Chuck Freilich, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, says a war with Hezbollah would be very different.
Iran-backed Hezbollah, he says, has antiaircraft missiles, an estimated 150,000 rockets, and thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles, or drones, that can reach most of Israel and certainly hit the center of the country, which has the highest population concentration and much of the national security infrastructure.
These central areas, including Tel Aviv, are the beating heart of the nation鈥檚 economy. They were targeted at the start of the war in Gaza by Hamas鈥� rockets, but the damage and impact were limited.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think the public fully understands how difficult this is going to be,鈥� says Mr. Freilich, a former national security adviser.
鈥淚t is a totally different order of magnitude,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he level of destruction on Israel鈥檚 homefront may be something like we have never, ever experienced.鈥�
Israeli leaders, he adds, have been 鈥渄ownplaying the costs鈥� of such a war. They are talking up the strength of Israel, but not preparing the public for what such a war would mean, and what the options are.
鈥淭he IDF [Israel Defense Forces] is tired and overstretched; they could use some time to gear up again,鈥� Mr. Freilich says. He adds that maybe instead of the leaders playing up Israel鈥檚 strength, what they should be telling the citizens is this: 鈥淧eople, swallow hard, the price is too heavy, and the people in the north are just going to have to go back to their homes [amid] the existing Hezbollah threat because we can鈥檛 wage another war at this time.鈥�
Government鈥檚 trust deficit
Meanwhile, the prolonged war in Gaza has eroded trust in the government and led to the questioning of its motivations and decisions, says Professor Bruria Adini, head of the department of emergency management and disaster medicine at Tel Aviv University鈥檚 School of Public Health. That erosion of trust has led to a substantial decrease of hope for better times ahead, she says, and is wearing down the resilience of the population, which was 鈥渧ery, very high鈥� in the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 attack.
Entering an additional war with lowered resilience levels and decreased levels of social cohesion, stemming from the reemergence of the prewar political rifts, would 鈥渋mpact the population鈥檚 capacity to effectively cope with emerging threats,鈥� Professor Adini says.听
Adding to the government鈥檚 trust deficit this week, an Israeli state commission of inquiry investigating a years-old military acquisition contract cast doubt on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu鈥檚 decision-making process, saying it had 鈥渆ndangered the security of the state.鈥�
Amid rising tensions with Hezbollah, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 trust our leadership,鈥� says Eitan Erez, head of sales at a cybersecurity firm, speaking Tuesday at a cybersecurity conference in Tel Aviv. Mr. Erez, who lives with his wife and three children in Yehud, on the outskirts of Tel Aviv, has equipped his home with water and batteries. He says he trusts the army and believes Israel鈥檚 antimissile defenses will protect the nation from the worst of the brunt of an all-out war.
鈥淚 think we are ready for everything,鈥� he says. Even so, he hopes for an accord and peace, 鈥渆ven if everything at this time points to an escalation.鈥�
Similarly, Koby Perez, a taxi driver who lives outside Tel Aviv in Ramat Gan, says he has no trust in Israel鈥檚 leadership, and prefers an agreement over an escalation.
鈥淭he state is not ready for all of the dead and the damage that such a war would entail,鈥� he says, steering his taxi through the busy streets of Tel Aviv. 鈥淭here is no way to prepare for such a war,鈥� he adds, except to go to demonstrations and hope the government will fall.
鈥淒enial ... helps us live鈥�
Talk of escalation and of possible prolonged electricity blackouts caused by Hezbollah attacks on strategic infrastructure has sent some citizens scrambling for generators.
But not so for two sisters from Jerusalem, sitting at a caf茅 in Tel Aviv Sunday. They sipped their cappuccinos, resigned for what could be on its way in coming weeks.听
Vardit and Dvora, who declined to give their full names, were waiting for their drinks under the shade of a leafy tree. 鈥淲e may be in denial, but that helps us live,鈥� Vardit says with a smile.
The levels of stress vary depending on the day, she says. If a war with Hezbollah expands, 鈥淲e will have to be close to our safe rooms, not sipping coffee as we are doing now. Everything will stop.鈥�
The sisters say they trust the army to protect them, but not the politicians leading the country. Both agree that a political solution would be better than war.
At the Tel Aviv beach Monday, Dr.听Carlita Landau, a health lecturer and seawater exercise instructor, was organizing equipment ahead of her class.
She says she is keenly aware that this normalcy could disappear if Tel Aviv is hit by Hezbollah rockets.
鈥淚t scares me, constricts my body, and closes my chest,鈥� Dr. Landau says.
Going into the sea with its unexpected waves, and maybe jellyfish, she adds, 鈥渋s a good way to prepare for the uncertainty of current times.鈥�
