Strike, counterstrike: What Israel just learned about Iran鈥檚 red lines
| London
For Israel鈥檚 targeting officers, it was just another day at the office.
As they had done scores of times in recent years, with little discernible pushback from Iran, the Israelis ordered a targeted assassination against enemy personnel abroad.
In this case, it was a strike April 1 in Damascus, Syria, which killed several senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals who were key to running Iran鈥檚 regional 鈥淎xis of Resistance鈥� operations against Israel.
Why We Wrote This
In war, outdated assessments and untested assumptions about one鈥檚 adversary can lead to hazardous miscalculations. The brief but violent exchange between Israel and Iran put the region and world on edge before calm was restored.
But that strike destroyed an Iranian consular building, and so triggered an unexpected and unprecedented response from Tehran two weeks later 鈥� a barrage of more than 300 missiles and drones, launched directly from Iranian soil at Israel, the scale of which by all accounts took the Israelis by surprise.
Nearly all the projectiles were shot down聽April 14 by Israel, as well as the United States and Jordan. And Israel鈥檚 own limited response, reportedly taking out an Iranian air defense system in central Iran April 19, ended the latest escalatory spiral.
But Israel鈥檚 first-ever direct kinetic exchange with Iran has yielded lessons for Israel, analysts say, even as the Jewish state simultaneously wages war in Gaza 鈥� sparked by Iran鈥檚 鈥淎xis鈥� ally Hamas鈥� invasion of Israel last Oct. 7 鈥� and faces a much more formidable Iran-backed enemy in Lebanon, Hezbollah.
鈥淲e got used to the fact that, if Iran wants to carry out an attack against Israel, it would either be through the use of proxies, or through Syria, or through terrorist attack,鈥� says Raz Zimmt, an Iran expert at The Institute for National Security Studies and The Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University.
For years, he says, Israel assumed that only one scenario 鈥� an attack by Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities 鈥� would spark a direct Iranian retaliation. And since Oct. 7, even though Iran-backed militias from Yemen to Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon have increased exchanges with Israel, Iran made clear it did not want a wider war.
鈥淔or the first time we see another possibility coming from Iran,鈥� says Dr. Zimmt, a former adviser on Iran to the Israel Defense Forces.
Khamenei鈥檚 leadership
Iran鈥檚 unprecedented reaction is also causing a reevaluation of the 鈥渨illingness to take risks鈥� by Iran鈥檚 leadership, helmed by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
鈥淲e have to reconsider whether Khamenei 鈥� especially today, as he ages, is perhaps getting weaker, is perhaps surrounded by more hard-liners, is thinking more and more about his legacy 鈥� is the same cautious leader we used to know for decades,鈥� adds Dr. Zimmt.
If Mr. Khamenei, he says,聽鈥渨as ready to take this risk, by launching more than 300 missiles and drones, which is certainly not a symbolic reaction,鈥澛爐hen Israelis are now bearing in mind聽鈥渨hether we should expect that in other areas, for example the nuclear strategy of聽Iran.鈥�
Iran鈥檚 April barrage 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 necessarily mean that Iran is going to be a different country from now on, that Khamenei is going to be a different kind of leader from now on,鈥� Dr. Zimmt adds. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 certainly added some doubts about the strategies and policies of Iran as we knew them, until now.鈥�
Taking fully eight days before commenting on Iran鈥檚 strike, which some critics derided as a 鈥渇ailure鈥� for its lack of impact in Israel, Mr. Khamenei praised Iran鈥檚 military forces for mounting a barrage that 鈥渋nfuriated鈥� Israel and its allies, and encouraged commanders to 鈥渓earn from the enemy.鈥�
The Iranian strike 鈥� which included the largest single drone attack in history 鈥� came after months in which Iran appeared to take little direct action to repulse an increasingly brazen Israeli campaign of targeting Iranian and 鈥淎xis鈥� assets across the region.
While Iranian hard-liners complained noisily about Iran鈥檚 toothless reaction until mid-April, it was similar muted Iranian reactions that appear to have lulled Israeli forces into a sense of complacency about the cumulative impact of their targeted assassinations.
鈥淚srael has operated with a lot of freedom in Syria for a long time, and it鈥檚 done similar acts before, but of course this one is very different because it was in a consular compound,鈥� says Mairav Zonszein, the senior analyst for Israel of the International Crisis Group. 鈥淪o there was clearly a failure of intelligence and of the political echelon to understand the ramifications of that move.鈥�
Israel now 鈥渦nderstands much more clearly鈥� that striking anything that Iran considers Iranian territory is a 鈥渞ed line,鈥� which is likely to be taken into account by Israel 鈥渘ext time,鈥� she says.
Iran鈥檚 strike itself was also 鈥渇ar greater in scope than [Israeli officials] anticipated, the numbers and munitions used,鈥� says Ms. Zonszein. 鈥淓verybody is learning from that situation 鈥� what the ability of Iran is to attack, what the ability of Israel and some of its allies is to defend.鈥�
Nuclear threat is main concern
Still, she says that bigger questions remain about 鈥渉ow Israel is going to recalibrate itself toward Iran鈥� and its allies 鈥撀爀specially Hezbollah.
On top of that, despite Iran鈥檚 conventional weapons barrage, 鈥渢he major concern for Israel [on Iran] is the nuclear threat,鈥� says Ms. Zonszein. 鈥淎nd the major threat that is not nuclear is from Hezbollah in Lebanon, because they have very high numbers of missiles and rockets, some of them precision-guided, and they live next door.鈥�
Indeed, Iranian officials and pundits have reveled in Iran鈥檚 hand in creating the strategic dilemmas faced by Israel, especially since Oct. 7, when the Hamas attack from Gaza into Israel left 1,200 dead, 250 people taken hostage, and a nation still coping with trauma. Israel鈥檚 military response in Gaza has yet to destroy Hamas or its leadership 鈥� two key war aims 鈥� but it has left more than 34,000 Palestinians dead and swaths of the enclave reduced to rubble.
Soon after the Iranian attack 鈥撀爓hich Iran claims to have resulted in a 鈥渘ew order鈥� in the region 鈥� the hard-line Iranian newspaper Vatan-e Emrouz published a front-page photograph of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praying at the Western Wall in Jerusalem, with the one-word headline, 鈥淒esperate.鈥�
鈥淎t the end of the day, I don鈥檛 think Israel would refrain from attacking Iranian assets in Syria, or anywhere else,鈥� though it is likely to refrain from targeting diplomatic compounds and overtly targeting Iranians inside Iran, to avoid triggering a similar Iranian barrage, says Dr. Zimmt at The Institute for National Security Studies.
鈥淭his will certainly play a role in future Israeli decisions, but not to the point that Israel will not do that anymore,鈥� he says.
