Around the globe, the politics of the war in Gaza is local
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| Washington
Shortly after Hamas fighters stormed across the Gaza border into Israel, killing and kidnapping hundreds of civilians and committing a range of atrocities, social media channels favored by India鈥檚 ruling Hindu nationalists lit up with dire warnings.
The common-thread message: Hindu-majority India, with its large Muslim minority, risked suffering the same fate as Israel.
Social media accounts associated with Prime Minister Narendra Modi鈥檚 Bharatiya Janata Party spun a scenario equating India鈥檚 Muslims with Hamas and jihadist extremism. Calling Israel鈥檚 war 鈥渙ur war,鈥� some posts argued that the only way India could avoid a similar outcome would be to redouble support for Mr. Modi and the BJP in upcoming local and national elections.
Why We Wrote This
In what will be an extraordinary year of elections around the globe, the Israel-Hamas war could play an outsize role in a number of countries where global issues rarely have significant domestic political impact.
鈥淚n the days since the Oct. 7 attacks, we鈥檝e seen posts claiming that if Modi loses this year鈥檚 elections, there will be a genocide of Hindus in India,鈥� says Praveen Donthi, senior India analyst with International Crisis Group in New Delhi.
鈥淥f course such claims are baseless,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut they demonstrate how these right-wing elements are using the events in Israel and Gaza to villainize Muslims and project their Islamophobic agenda.鈥�
As it turns out, India is not the only country where the war in Gaza is having an impact on politics.
An undying interest in the conflict
In what will be an extraordinary year of elections around the globe 鈥� with as much as 40% of the world鈥檚 population casting a ballot 鈥� the Israel-Hamas war could play an outsize role in a number of countries where global issues rarely have significant political impact.
Those countries range from Indonesia, the world鈥檚 largest Muslim-majority state, to the United States.
In Indonesia, the war has forced candidates in next month鈥檚 presidential election to finesse a delicate two-step dance in which they support the widely popular Palestinian cause while rejecting Islamist extremism, which has afflicted the country.
And in the U.S., President Joe Biden鈥檚 reelection prospects have been hit by frustration among key elements of the coalition that delivered him to the White House 鈥� notably young voters, African Americans, Arab Americans, and other minorities 鈥� with the president鈥檚聽unwavering support for Israel during its campaign in Gaza.
Those differences have bled into an argument over whether such criticism constitutes antisemitism.
What the war鈥檚 impact on politics across much of the globe suggests, some experts say, is an undying interest in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict 鈥� when some had thought the decades-old issue was losing its global salience.
鈥淲e鈥檙e seeing it鈥檚 still true that anything related to Israel and the Palestinians is of outsized interest,鈥� says Daniel Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Egypt and Israel who is now a professor of Middle East policy studies at Princeton University.
鈥淭here are a lot of wars, and many where a lot more people have been killed,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut when it鈥檚 something involving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, it seizes the world鈥檚 attention.鈥�
An example of 鈥済localization鈥�
That does not mean global reactions to the war or its political ramifications have been uniform. Indeed, some see in the global impact a phenomenon social scientists have dubbed 鈥済localization,鈥� in which an issue of global interest has differing impacts depending on particular national interests and motivations.
Thus, in India, where Hindu nationalists have been demonizing Muslims for years as part of their pursuit of a unitary Hindu state, the focus has been on Hamas鈥� horrific attacks. But in Muslim countries and across much of the West, public attention has fixed more on Israel鈥檚 punishing destruction of Gaza and the staggering civilian death toll.
India鈥檚 dominant outlook on the war reflects a stark shift from a championing of the Palestinian cause under successive Gandhi governments to 鈥渁 pro-Israel stance,鈥� says Mr. Donthi of International Crisis Group.
鈥淚n the Hindu nationalists鈥� worldview, India should follow Israel鈥檚 example and become a Hindu-centric state in the way Israel is a Jewish state 鈥� and India should treat its Muslims the way Israel treats the Palestinians in Palestine,鈥� he says.
鈥淥fficially the government supports a two-state solution,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut politically there is tacit approval of Modi鈥檚 portrayal as the last bulwark against Islamist terrorism.鈥�
Another unique response to the war in Gaza can be found in Germany, where an unquestionable dedication to Israel鈥檚 security 鈥� as atonement for its Nazi past and the Holocaust 鈥� has collided with growing criticism of Israel and a clamor to recognize other stains on German history.
鈥淲e鈥檝e seen a spike in the last two years in discussions about how Germany remembers the Holocaust,鈥� says Sina Arnold, a senior researcher and expert in antisemitism at Technical University Berlin鈥檚 Research Institute for Social Cohesion.
鈥淭here are attacks from both the right and the left on Germany鈥檚 memorial culture: that things have gone too far, that the dominant attention to the Holocaust doesn鈥檛 leave room for acknowledging ... Germany鈥檚 colonial past,鈥� she says. 鈥淏ut since the Oct. 7 attacks, this has all boiled over and this debate has turned really toxic.鈥�
Germany right is conflicted
Even so, the Israel-Hamas war and the intense debate around national memory are unlikely to have a direct impact on state elections slated for the fall, according to Dr. Arnold. In part, she says, that鈥檚 because the German far right, which polls suggest could make big gains in some states, is divided over Israel.
鈥淥n one hand, Israel is seen [on the far right] as a bulwark against Muslims, and as an authoritarian ethnostate they see as a model Germany should strive for,鈥� she says. 鈥淏ut there is another side that is more open about its anti-Jewish attitudes, that recognizes Israel is the land of the Jews 鈥� and the far right doesn鈥檛 like Jews.鈥�
Perhaps the biggest test of the war鈥檚 political impact won鈥檛 come until November, when President Biden鈥檚 staunch support for Israel could effectively be on the ballot.
That鈥檚 not because Israel is likely to be a major national issue, some experts say, but because of 鈥済localization,鈥� and how, in a system based on individual state vote-counts, the Israel-Hamas war could make a decisive difference in states where Mr. Biden won last time by very narrow margins: Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
鈥淚t really seems right now,鈥� says聽Ambassador Kurtzer, that聽President Biden 鈥渃ould lose reelection over this.鈥澛�
